Valero Texas Open
The lead up to a Major. Typically, this results in, well, a pathetic field since most guys are already at that site playing practice rounds. Usually, you see the guys at these events that are trying to qualify for next week. And…that’s what we get this week. I’m really not liking the pricing – especially given the field – from the low $8K range and down.
TPC San Antonio (where I just was – San Antonio, not the TPC) is a bit longer course falling just under 7,500 yards. However, as we’ve seen today, “long” is simply relative to other courses and not whether it will affect these guys much.
Key factors this week:
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee
- Shots Gain Approach (or Proximity to the Hole)
Wind could be a factor because it is Texas so you can watch that and try to stagger your lineups to get players with tee times less affected by wind. For example, if winds are picking up Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, you may want guys with A.M. tee times on Thursday and P. M. on Friday. Most of you probably know this, but the tee times flip on Thursday and Friday.
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. Like last week, the format will be:
- Each Thousand Dollar price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers:
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000 (a HUGE PILE of guys here – with more emphasis on “PILE”)
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
As I’ve said previously, many times, I’ll start in the low $8K range and build from there.
- Abraham Ancer ($10,300) – He’s from Mexico/Texas and is used to the conditions that will likely present themselves this week. He’s played here four times and made all four cuts. Plus, he looked really good in match play last week.
- Corey Conners ($9,800) – With the shitty pricing (my opinion) this week, getting Corey at this price isn’t bad. He’s played here three time and won in 2019 so I love his course history. Like Ancer, he looked great last week in match play. I know it’s a different game, but he made it to the semi-finals and was only eliminated by Mr. “It’s Not a Hobby” – Kevin Kisner. Kisner, much like Ian Poulter, is a match play Pitbull!
Dew Sweepers:
- Jordan Spieth ($10,600) – Another Texas product so he will likely be less affected by weather conditions than others. He is also the defending champion here. Frankly, much like my next Dew Sweeper, his price is my hesitation. Taking him or anyone else in the five figure range leaves less than $8K per player. Now, it’s that way every week, but the choices below that range are limited in fields like this. Someone will emerge, but picking them is difficult.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,200) – Any time Rory tees it up, he can win. Again, pricing is my issue.
NOTE: This may be a non-issue but you also need to be aware of the additional risk associated with tournaments happening the week before a Major. If someone that is already in the Masters (all of the above) plays poorly on Thursday, there is a tendency to “go through the motions” on Friday to get the weekend practice rounds at Augusta! I know this concept is not liked because no one admits to it, but it is a factor to consider in picking a bigger name.
$7,500 to $8,900
With Maverick McNealy, Chris Kirk, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley and Tony Finau all priced above $9K this week, you see what I mean by the lower tiers being “limited”. Now, don’t get me wrong, there are still a lot of excellent players, you just don’t get that cozy feeling like you do picking Jordan or Rory.
- Adam Hadwin ($8,900) – OK, maybe not “cozy”, but I do feel comfortable rostering him in this tier. His last two events have been Top 10s and he had a solid Top 25 here last year. Plus, in the rolling stats in the model I use, he’s 4th in SG-Total. This is a guy you could essentially start a lineup with if your brave enough to be contrarian and ignore the higher-priced players.
- Kevin Streelman ($8,700) – Top 10 the last two times he’s entered this event and he’s made 3 of his last 4 cuts with all three being Top 25s. Again, whether you start here or at the Top, you’re going to be using at least 2 or 3 guys in this range.
- Dew Sweepers:
- Mito Pereira ($8,100) – I simply like his game. He has no course history so this is a wild card. However, he’s not in the Masters field yet so he may have something to strive for and, if his game is on, he could contend.
- Patton Kizzire ($8,000) – Not many guys at this price are making cuts as regularly as he is. I think he may be one of the best bets in the lower part of this tier to play the weekend.
BONUS: Giving the fact that I think this will be a highly-utilized tier, I’m giving you a few more options:
- Jhonattan Vegas ($8,600);
- Charley Hoffman ($8,200) – he hasn’t been playing well so this is risky but his course history is on fire (2nd-2nd-T64-T40-Win-T11-T11-T3-T13-T2)
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,900) – played the alternate tournament last week and, after a shaky 1st round went 67-67-67 to finish 6th. Oh, and it was windy there too!
- Matt Kuchar ($7,800) – Charley Hoffman at $400 less
$7,000 to $7,400
- Richard Bland ($7,200) – Played well in match play last week and advanced from the DeChambeau bracket. He’s 49 years old and would really like to qualify for the Masters. I look for him to fight and make the cut as long as his game rolls over from Austin to San Antonio.
- Chad Ramey ($7,300) – He’s playing well! That is all! Won at Punta Cana last week and T5 at Puerto Rico Open (during The Players). He’s only making about ½ of his cuts but has played well in those last two events in the wind.
Dew Sweepers:
- Matthias Schwab ($7,000) – Has had some really good finishes in the last month and this price is appealing to help fill in the rest of your roster.
- Pat Perez ($7,000) – I’m limited ok! He is making cuts!
Under $7,000
Back to using this tier only if necessary. There are some options though.
- Nate Lashley ($6,900) – Top 15 in two of his last three events.
- Adam Svensson ($6,800)
- Cameron Champ ($6,900) – He’s struggling, but, DAMN IT, he’s won on Tour. Extra length will also not bother him in the least.
- Sam Ryder ($6,800) – Missed the cut at Valspar, but made the previous five.
LONGSHOT:
- Guido Migliozzi ($6,100) – He hasn’t made many cuts this year, but his statistics aren’t that bad. He’s 7th in Shots Gained-Approach in his last 12 rounds and 5th in Shots Gained-Total relative to this field.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Abraham Ancer
Corey Conners
___________________
(Leaves you $7,475 per golfer) – Not easy!
CORE #2 (balanced):
Adam Hadwin
Russell Knox
Kevin Streelman
(Leaves you $8,033 per golfer)
CORE #3 (GUT PICKS – you pick the Top Tiers):
Mito Pereira
Rasmus Hojgaard
Patton Kizzire
(Leaves you $8,666 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 25% Key Stats / 25% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Adam Hadwin
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Abraham Ancer
- Jordan Spieth
- Rory McIlroy
- Chris Kirk
- Gary Woodland
- Patton Kizzire (V)
- Maverick McNealy
- Kevin Streelman
- Keegan Bradley
- Mito Pereira
- Troy Merritt (V)
- Matt Kuchar (V)
- Robert Macintyre (V) – I may use him!
- Ben Martin (V)
- Sahith Theegala (V)
- Matthew NeSmith (V)
Notice there is a lot of “Value” in this list. That’s because the field is soft but many of these guys are still playing well statistically.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!