RBC CANADIAN OPEN
Since this isn’t DFS MLB, NBA or NFL, I don’t get much feedback from anyone so I try to look back at the picks from the article and see how they finished. Last week looked pretty good. I more than doubled up with my Billy Ho lineups and a lot of the guys in the article finished Top 15 or higher. Hopefully, some of you did well!
BIG NOTE: I am on vacation next week. Yes, I know, the week of the U. S. Open. An article appears to be highly unlikely since I’ll be in Maine and taking my computer is not on my “to do” list. However, I will be free in the evenings to answer questions on Discord and will try to post a High, Middle and Low-priced player in each tier on there to help. (I can use my phone for that!)
Now – this week’s pricing really sucks! We have a lot of bigger names but the middle of the pack, those around the average price per player in a lineup, don’t give me any good feelings picking them. I mean, OK, let’s go Hughes, Vegas, Hojgaard, Theegala, Rai and Todd for a truly balanced lineup. Feel good about that? You can’t get Scheffler, Thomas, McIlroy, etc. without going below those guys in the player pool. So, yeah, THIS WEEK SUCKS!! Plus, with the U. S. Open next week, the high-end guys that don’t play well on Thursday present the risk of “going through the motions” on Friday to get in some early practice rounds at Brookline over the weekend.
General Description: Par 70 at 7,014 yards. Narrow fairways and plenty of trees will diminish the advantage of the inaccurate bombers. In fact, the course is short enough that I think everyone is in play as long as their approach game is good. We have bentgrass again with plenty of slope in the greens and bunkers for protection.
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):
- Bogey Avoidance
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
IF you can play one or two of the guys in this tier and still feel good about your lineup, Godspeed! I like these guys, but affording them is the problem. Say I go Scheffler and Lowry. That leaves me $7,200 per golfer. So, that leaves me with guys that have made, in most cases, less than 50% of the cuts in events they entered.
I think this may be a week to play the lower-priced guys and hope that they all make the cut while JT, Scottie and Rory decide on the back nine on Thursday that they’d much rather be in Massachusetts.
- Scottie Scheffler ($11,100) – Who’s playing better?
- Harold Varner III ($9,700) – I have a good feeling about him this week.
Dew Sweepers:
- Corey Conners ($9,600) – This may not be a bad price. I’m just not used to having so few guys priced higher.
- Shane Lowry ($10,100) – a poor finish over the weekend last week may keep his ownership down. That would be why I may lean to him.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Patrick Reed ($8,900) – he also disappointed last week. He looked like the ship may have righted after the 2nd round when he made the cut, but 73-75 over the weekend made me reconsider. Still, in this environment, this isn’t a bad price and I think he makes the cut again. AND…..Patrick Reed withdraws! Pivot to Jhonattan Vegas ($8,500)
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($8,300) – He’s a name that isn’t familiar to the casual player, but he hasn’t missed a cut since last October. A lot of touts are probably going to look at the Canadian players since it is their national championship. I like Conners – and maybe Hadwin – but I’m not jumping up and down over paying $9,600 and $9,300 for them respectively.
Dew Sweepers:
- Sahith Theegala ($8,700) – T5 last week and he makes cuts
- C. T. Pan ($8,100) – Thanks to Pat Perez withdrawal, I’m forced to go with another guy making cuts like wildfire.
$7,000 to $7,400
Remember throwing up in my mouth a little over Rickie Fowler last week? Yeah, well, cue the porcelain god with this week’s pricing!
- Rory Sabbatini ($7,200) –Why? Why not! He’s a good player!
- Matthias Schwab ($7,300)
Dew Sweepers:
- Adam Svensson ($7,100) – A cheap Canadian that could, just maybe, return value if he doesn’t play golf trying to “not miss the cut” which is what I’m afraid some of the Canadian entrants may do. And, we all know what happens when you “try not to lose” instead of trying to win.
- Brandt Snedeker ($7,100) – He’s made his last two cuts and we know he can putt.
Under $7,000
Yeah, OK!
- Wyndham Clark ($6,900)
- Wesley Bryan ($6,800)
- Bill Haas ($6,800)
LONGSHOT:
- Chris Gotterup ($6,300) – I know very little to nothing about this guy. He finished up his college golf career at Oklahoma and won the Haskins Award given to the top college golfer in the country. He’s turning pro this week! Frankly, given this tournament is on foreign soil, I think some of the pressure is off and he makes the cut. Let’s get really frisky with the call! Top 30!!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Scottie Scheffler
Shane Lowry
Patrick Reed
(Leaves you $6,633 per golfer) – Yeah, sleep easy!
CORE #2 (balanced):
Rasmus Hojgaard
Sahith Theegala
Aaron Rai
(Leaves you $8,366 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 50% Key Stats:
(V) = Value at $7,900 or less
- Cameron Smith
- Sam Burns
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Corey Conners
- Harold Varner III
- Adam Hadwin
- Keith Mitchell
- Tony Finau
- Chris Kirk
- Pat Perez (V)
- Justin Rose
- Sahith Theegala
- Sebastian Munoz
- Brendon Todd
- Jhonattan Vegas
Not a ton of value when you look solely at price, but there is some that I noted above.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!