FedEx St. Jude Classic (Playoff Week 1)
Im-Kim-“See ya Kim”! Damn that Si Woo getting sick on Sunday! I guess he and Jason Day shouldn’t have eaten at the same place.
Despite that, my Im-Kim-Kim Seuss call wasn’t that bad! I had 3 of 5 lineups with 6/6. I swear Chris Gotterup made a bogey on purpose finishing up his Friday round on Saturday morning. That let all the -1s into the weekend. I’m not complaining. It saved my ass on a couple of lineups.
So, this is our last week with a cut until we crown a FedEx champ. Since the Top 125 make this – and several aren’t playing – this should be one of the better weeks to get 6/6. But, as we’ve found out, that ain’t easy!
This will likely be the last full article until the new season begins sometime in September. I’ll post some picks on Discord, but with no cuts, anyone is in play!
TPC Southwind is a middle-of-the-road course as far as length goes. The rough is usually not very punishing. The rough at Sedgefield last week seemed to get worse as the week went on.
General Description:
- Par 70 that plays around 7,244 yards
- Not-as-Quick Bermuda grass greens but this could change if they dry out
- Fairways are average width but missing them won’t punish players as much as last week
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):
- Shots Gained Approach
- Birdies-or-Better %
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion.
The format will be:
Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
This is going to seem like a Major. Although, I’m not sure the pricing is as “convenient” for Stars-and-Scrubs lineups. Even though 125 made the Playoffs, it appears less than 120 are playing this week. You don’t have to play every week to advance! As long as you stay within the Top 70 and, subsequently, the Top 30, you don’t have to play at all until we get to Atlanta.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – Yes, he’s too damn expensive! Well, you can do it because there are some guys in the $7,500 and down range that can get you there.
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) – He’s won the whole thing before – last year in fact. In his last six events, he’s not been worse than T14.
Dew Sweepers:
I could name all the guys at $10K and up – but you can’t play them all! So, I’m making my “Dew Sweepers” guys at $9,500 and down:
- Will Zalatoris ($9,500) – For anyone that has followed my articles for a couple of years, you know how much I liked Ian Poulter. Well, welcome to my new, younger version of Ian Poulter. I love this guys tenacity and desire to win. He may not win the FedEx Cup, but he may win one of the playoff tournaments.
- Viktor Hovland ($9,000) – Here’s another guy that will fight to the end. He’s struggled a little this year, but he has the all-around game (except for his short game sometimes – struggle) to compete each week. If his ball-striking is on and he doesn’t miss a lot of greens, he’ll be there on Sunday.
$7,500 to $8,900
Yeah, OK, here’s where I’m saying the pricing is helpful. I can name you several guys in this group that would be $9,500 or higher in other weeks.
- Sam Burns ($8,600) – He finished T2 here last year and can win at any time.
- Joohyung (“Tom”) Kim ($8,000) – We saw what he’s capable of last week. If you want a guy that’s playing well and shouldn’t feel any pressure because no one expects him to win the Cup – call “Tom”!
Dew Sweepers:
- Max Homa ($7,900) – “West Coast” – Now “All Coasts” – Homa at this price? Yes please! Take it while you can. This is a week where you are going to feel like you’re missing something because you didn’t play Xander, Jordan, JT, etc. YOU CAN’T PLAY THEM ALL!!! Unless you play multiple lineups, you’re going to have to take a stand. If you like any of those guys better than the ones I mentioned, by all means, PLAY THEM!! It’s not a play/no play decision! It’s how you fill it in with this Tier and the next two.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($7,800) – Another hard-core competitor! That’s what you want when it’s “move up or go home!”
Others: Henley ($7,800), Conners ($7,600), Bezuidenhout ($7,500) & Lowry ($8,300)
$7,000 to $7,400
This tier is viable this week and the next two since everyone will get 4 rounds after this week.
- Brian Harman ($7,200) – He’s capable of a Top 10! At this price, that’s killer!
- J. T. Poston ($7,300) – His recent play is far better than this price reflects. Take advantage of it!
Dew Sweepers:
- Jason Day ($7,000) – He’s still playing too well to be priced this low even if he isn’t the Major winner he was.
- Chez Reavie ($7,100) – another one playing too well to be this low. Three Top 10s in his last 4 trips to Southwind too!
Under $7,000
You can go here but I’d avoid too much.
- Stephan Jaeger ($6,600) – T13-5th-Cut-T22 in last four. He’s found his North American legs I think.
- Callum Tarren ($6,600) – Great “Longshot” call last week! Cheaper this week – although the field is a little tougher. If he plays his game and just scores, the return at this price is phenomenal!
One More:
- Chesson Hadley ($6,400) – I NEVER take a guy this low unless it’s a plug. But, this guy has played his way into the Playoffs and keeping his Tour Card. Anything else is icing on the cake and – how much pressure can you have when no one expects you to win!?
LONGSHOT:
- Webb Simpson ($7,300) – Damn I don’t trust him! He withdrew last week! Let me rephrase that! HE QUIT!!! Since he was outside the cut line with one hole to play, he simply just didn’t return to the course on Saturday to finish after the weather delay. From an ethical standpoint, I don’t like it because it literally is “quitting”. From an economic standpoint, I get it! I’ve said it before; bad play can turn around because you find something or you go to a course that you like. Last three years: T15-T12-2nd!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Patrick Cantlay
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
(Leaves you $6,966 per golfer) – Guess what? It works this week!
CORE #2 (balanced):
Jordan Spieth
Joohyung (Tom) Kim
Viktor Hovland
(Leaves you $7,966 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 35% Key Stats/15% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Rory McIlroy
- Patrick Cantlay
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Smith
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim (V)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Billy Horschel
- Jordan Spieth
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Sungjae Im
- Shane Lowry
- Taylor Pendrith (V)
- Sam Burns
- Aaron Wise (V)
- Tony Finau
- Seamus Power (V)
- Scott Stallings (V)
- Jon Rahm
This week is a crap-shoot! Still, it’s a crap-shoot with a lot of good players. The key here is getting the right 1, 2 or 3 guys at the $9K and higher price and pairing with the lower level guys mentioned here. I really think those are the ones that I’m trying to hone in on. Anyone can pick one of the Top 10 players in the world. Picking the guys that can occasionally beat one of them is the key to winning at DFS.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!