The Players Championship
Well folks, I’m a little slow this week and I knew I would be with the travel. I’m now in Mayakoba in a beautiful resort where finding your room in the dark is like making a 40=foot putt to win The Players. It’s not likely, but when you do, you feel like you’ve really accomplished something! I’m not trying to disappoint anyone, but the research and commentary (Hell, maybe you want me to shut up!) may be limited since I’m limited to a phone and one screen on a laptop. Yeah, I know, sissy! I’m just so used to multiple screens. Anyway, TPC Sawgrass is a shorter course at just under 7,200 yards (Par 72), but the fairways are narrow, I read the rough may be about an inch longer this year, and there are a boat load of trees and water to take care of those wayward shots. The greens are Bermuda and are little smaller in regards to average on the PGA tour. Plus, they are usually quick. Oh, and it’s a Pete Dye design. Those of you that know, know! There isn’t much else to talk about since we’ve all become familiar with this venue. Everyone knows about the Par 3 17th. It’s only 137 yards but it can make or break your round.
A little statistical information. This course requires accuracy off the tee (DA) and greens in regulation (GIR) are important. Now, don’t take this as a defamation of any of the top guys, but on those two stats alone only the following look like they should be in the running to win:
DA GIR
- Scottie Scheffler 36th 1st
- Collin Morikawa 9th 22nd (he pissed me off a little last week)
- Jon Rahm NO 29th
- Patrick Cantlay 55th 6th
Now, some of the other guys make up for it elsewhere. Short game and driving distance to name just a couple. But, stats are stats and you can take them however you like. Now for the short and dirty look at who I like this week.
$9,000 and Up
- John Rahm ($11,800) – I don’t like taking the highest priced guy, but his 39th last week was his worst finish of the season, he has two Top 15s here and…the pricing will allow it.
- Scottie Scheffler ($10,600)** – His recent play (4th-12th-Win-11th-7th) and the stats above are why he would be my pick in the five-figure range.
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) – This guy’s play fascinates me. It’s solid. My only concern with him this week is that he’s missed 3 cuts in a row here. Not sure why since he finished Top 25 each of the years prior to that (remember, we skipped 2020 due to COVID).
- Justin Thomas ($9,400)** – I can’t look at TPC Sawgrass without picturing JT on the front page of the leaderboard.
Others I’m playing: Schauffele ($10,000); Homa ($9,900) and McIlroy ($11,000).
Side note on McIlroy – I’m a little off him because of the price, but there has also been a little distraction with him this week and the changing of the workings in the Elevated Events for next season.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Viktor Hovland ($8,900)** – He could have won last week. Had he and/or Hatton shot a decent round last Sunday, I would have been screen-shotting my ass off on Discord! He missed the cut in 2021 but finished 9th in 2022. Hoping he figured it out.
- Will Zalatoris ($8,800) – I’m a little more cautious, but I’m not giving up on Willy Z.
- Cameron Young ($8,500)
- Tyrrell Hatton ($8,300)** – good thing for him and Viktor that I don’t hold a grudge:
Others: Tom Kim ($8,000); Keegan Bradley ($7,500)**; Adam Scott ($7,700) and Sahith Theegala ($7,600)
I would like to add that I think Keegan Bradley is an outstanding play at $7,500 as is Tom Kim at $8,000 even though he’s never played here. New courses don’t seem to faze him.
$7,000 to $7,400
- Corey Conners ($7,400)**
- Keith Mitchell ($7,400)**
- Adam Hadwin ($7,100)
- Thomas Detry ($7,100)
Under $7,000
- Ryan Fox ($6,700)** – Love taking a risk on this guy this week if I’m needing a guy at this price. Recent play: World Tour, but 14th-17th-11th-20th! He’s also my longshot!
- Justin Suh ($6,600)**
- Seonghyeon Kim ($6,700) – He just makes cuts!
- Adam Svensson ($6,600)
Other than that, I’m really not going any lower although I know one of those guys will pop! I would really love to take a shot at Daniel Berger ($7,300) but he’s coming off an injury and hasn’t played in months. Still, if I could enter another lineup here in Mexico, I’d through him in a low-dollar GPP for shits and giggles!
Good luck! Hit me up on Discord if you have questions!