WGC – Dell Match Play
So, how do we do this? This could be tough, but we will do the best we can. We have to look at this differently than a normal tournament. These aren’t hard and fast rules, but I think we need to consider the following:
- We don’t want to play any players that are in the same Group in a single lineup.
- There are 16 groups so we don’t want to get guys that are in Groups 1 & 16, 2 & 15, 3 & 14, 4 & 13, 5 & 12, 6 & 11, 7 & 10 or 8 & 9 IF we can avoid it. That gives you the chance of getting 6 out of 6 in the “Elite 8” playing Saturday afternoon and possibly both sessions on Sunday. This is even more important if they are your higher-dollar selections.
- Much like March Madness, Groups are in regions. If you want to have a chance of getting four guys into Sunday, you will need to make sure you have at least one player from each region:
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- Region 1 – Groups 1, 16, 9 & 8
- Region 2 – Groups 5, 12, 13 & 4
- Region 3 – Groups 2, 15, 10, & 7
- Region 4 – Groups 6, 11, 14 & 3
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Limit your play this week. It’s too volatile and there is no way you will have 6 out of 6 come Sunday. If you can get the final four, you should cash.
Your pick is guaranteed 3 rounds, but can play as many as 7 rounds if they make the final four. There is also no guarantee of playing 18 holes and the scoring is different.
Highlights: Austin Country Club
- Par 71 – 7,100 yards
- Small greens and wide fairways
- TifEagle Bermuda greens with POA overseed
- Pete Dye design like TPC Sawgrass
I will give you pricing in each Group and my preferred play (PP) and my potential upset (PU) pick in each Group. I guess “PU” is the correct abbreviation since you may want to hold your nose when you pick it. I know it stinks, but it’s match play. One bad hole does not determine the match.
I’m showing the Groups and pricing together below as they match up in the Brackets. In other words, the two winners from the paired brackets would meet in the Round of 16 starting on Saturday. Wednesday through Friday will be the intergroup play so every golfer will get at least three rounds baring a WD.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Group 1 & 16
| Group 1 | Group 16 |
| Scottie Scheffler ($11,100)
Tom Kim ($8,700) Davis Riley ($7,300) Alex Noren ($7,000) |
Sungjae Im ($9,400)
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,300) Maverick McNealy ($6,800) J. T. Poston ($6,300) |
Group 1 – I have to take Scottie Scheffler as the PP and Tom Kim as my PU. After his performance here last year, I have to stay with Scottie but his pricing isn’t going to be too helpful for you. Tom Kim is so steady (like Scheffler) that I look for this to come down to who wins head-to-head when they play.
Group 16 – I’m going with Tommy Fleetwood as my PP and Maverick McNealy as my PU. Fleetwood’s game appears to be re-emerging and I know he’s a good match play guy (most Euro players are). Im could be the one that comes out of this Group, but picking him isn’t an upset.
Group 2 & 15
| Group 2 | Group 15 |
| Jon Rahm ($11,000)
Rickie Fowler ($8,200) Keith Mitchell ($8,100) Billy Horschel ($7,900) |
Cameron Young ($9,200)
Corey Conners ($7,900) Davis Thompson ($6,200) Sepp Straka ($6,100) |
Group 2 – The obvious PP is Jon Rahm, but again, he’s pricey. As a PU in this Group, it’s a toss-up between Fowler and Mitchell, but I’d lean Mitchell simply because he hasn’t been rebuilding his game. Rickie is back, but match play is different.
Group 15 – The chalk here is Cam Young as PP, but I’m going with Corey Conners as my UP. You’re going to need it somewhere!
Group 3 & Group 14
| Group 3 | Group 14 |
| Rory McIlroy ($10,500)
Keegan Bradley ($7,700) Denny McCarthy ($6,900) Scott Stallings ($6,200)
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Tyrrell Hatton ($9,000)
Russell Henley ($7,100) Ben Griffin ($6,500) Lucas Herbert ($6,300) |
Group 3 – Everyone will go Rory and frankly I don’t blame them. Keegan is likely the best PU pick, but I think it’s a toss-up for the other three.
Group 14 – I’m going with Tyrrell Hatton in this Group. He’s the obvious choice and typically Euro Players are good match play guys. For my PU, Ben Griffin has been playing as solidly as anyone. That’s stroke play, not match play. However, I’m not feeling it with the other guys.
Group 4 & 13
| Group 4 | Group 13 |
| Patrick Cantlay ($10,700)
Brian Harman ($7,400) Nick Taylor ($6,600) H. Lee ($6,400) |
Sam Burns ($8,800)
Adam Scott ($7,800) Adam Hadwin ($7,500) Seamus Power ($7,200) |
Group 4 – Give me Patrick Cantlay! Brian Harman would normally be my PU player, but he isn’t playing like I know he can. I think I’ll go Nick Taylor as the dark horse in this group.
Group 13 – This group is the hardest to pick from. I think I’m going Sam Burns as my PP because the price really isn’t bad at all. Seamus Power would be my PU player based on current form an he played well here last year. The “Adams” aren’t bad choices either. I look for this Group to possibly end up in a tiebreaker to get the Round of 16 participant.
Group 5 & 12
| Group 5 | Group 12 |
| Max Homa ($10,100)
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600) Justin Suh ($7,300) Kevin Kisner ($7,200) |
Jordan Spieth ($10,200)
Shane Lowry ($8,400) Taylor Montgomery ($7,400) Mackenzie Hughes ($6,100) |
Group 5 – Max Homa (PP) and Justin Suh (PU). I think a lot of people may go with Kevin Kisner in this Group due to his match play history and run here last year. But, I’m not real excited about his recent play. He hasn’t finished under par in any of the last 5 events he’s entered and has missed 4 of 5 cuts. I don’t know why I’m not feeling Hideki this week, but I’m not. If you have a gut feeling and need someone $1,500 cheaper, don’t rely on my gut.
Group 12 – Jordan Spieth, Jordan Spieth, Jordan Spieth! He is having a hard time winning a tournament right now, but his play is like “Old Jordan” (the younger version). Confused? Shane Lowry would be my PU here.
Group 6 & Group 11
| Group 6 | Group 11 |
| Xander Schauffele ($10,300)
Tom Hoge ($7,700) Aaron Wise ($6,800) Cameron Davis ($6,600) |
Matt Fitzpatrick ($9,400)
Sahith Theegala ($8,000) Min Woo Lee ($7,600) J. J. Spaun ($6,000) |
Group 6 – Xander Schauffele is the obvious PP, but I’m not sure he wins his Group. I’m going with him but don’t be surprised if Tom Hoge sneaks in there as a cheaper option PU.
Group 11 – I’m going with Min Woo Lee as my PP. I know, you all see Matt Fitzpatrick in this Group and say, “you must be losing your damn mind”! Maybe, but we know Fitz has a bad neck and, as cheap at $8,500 is for him, he isn’t playing like Fitz. However, I will flip the script, and say the highest-priced guy could be the PU player in this Group IF he’s actually healthy now.
Group 7 & Group 10
| Group 7 | Group 10 |
| Will Zalatoris ($8,900) (PP)
Ryan Fox ($7,000) Harris English ($6,900) Andrew Putnam ($6,000) |
Tony Finau ($9,800)
Kurt Kitayama ($7,600) (PP) Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,700) Adrian Meronk ($6,400) |
Group 7 – Will Zalatoris! The other guys in this Group should not be able to match Will Z head-to-head. But, match play is its own animal and, if I’m surprised, I think it will be Ryan Fox. Some other “talking head” in DFS are off Will Z because his performance has been lackluster this year. I’m sticking with him.
Group 10 – Wow, just wow! I don’t like this Group. Finau isn’t the best at match play. Kitayama won a couple weeks ago, but was just average otherwise. Let’s go with the Europeans. Meronk as PP and Bezuidenhout as PU.
Group 8 & Group 9
| Group 8 | Group 9 |
| Viktor Hovland ($9,600)
Chris Kirk ($7,800) Si Woo Kim ($7,500) Matt Kuchar ($7,100) |
Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
Jason Day ($9,100) Adam Svensson ($6,700) Victor Perez ($6,500) |
Group 8 – Viktor Hovland is the highlight here, and though I may play him, I think Chris Kirk (PP) wins this Group. Matt Kuchar (PU) has a lot going for him too. Good at match play, a veteran, plays well here, and he can win it.
Group 9 – This is a good Grouping. Morikawa and Day are both playing well. Perez finished fourth here two years ago (2021) and Svensson has been consistent. To me, this may be the hardest Group to predict. And, the pricing isn’t as spread out. Two high and two low-priced guys. I’m sticking with Morikawa as PP and taking Perez as my PU. If you go another way, I won’t blame you if I’m right. But, don’t sacrifice me to the gods if I’m wrong.
Final Four Prediction:
- Scheffler (Group 1)
- Cantlay (Group 4)
- Zalatoris (Group 7)
- Tyrrell Hatton (Group 14)
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!