Only 10 games on the Tuesday night slate as we continue to have a heavy 6pm Window of games which the DFS sites refuse to allow us to include those gems.
On that Turbo slate I like Cardinals, Phillies and Reds. The over in STL/CIN, the under in TEX/PIT and I just wouldn’t touch TOR/TB if you can avoid it.
White Sox/Guardians is thankfully not on any Classic slate.
WEATHER
All clear, ball should travel well in Kauffman Stadium again. No, this doesn’t mean Brady Singer is pitching you ***-holes… Let’s just not discuss it anymore, okay.
TOP ARM
Yu Darvish (DK: 10.5k, FD: 10.4k)
Can good trash beat good trash? Because that’s where I see Darvish thriving tonight simply by throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Nationals with his 38.2% CSW rate on Sinkers, 36.5% on Sliders and the occasional splitter which opponents are only hitting .122 off this season.
Statistically we have a Nationals team which manages to not strike out a ton, but the Darvish type pitcher should just go right through them without getting his PC up too high and that’s key with Darvish at 10k+ on a night with Cole/Strider out there too.
SP2 OPTIONS
Brayan Bello (DK: $6300)
BB has looked better in 2023 and lets clear something up on his prior GS vs Anaheim. It was on Patriots day, so an 11 am start and he started the 1st inning with strikeout, single, HBP, HR, BB, single, Sac Fly, single, strikeout. The 2nd inning started with a Neto single and then Ohtani single and in the third he gave up two more singles before striking out 2 and being pulled.
The issue at no point in 2023 for Bello has been hard contact, the issue was that first start in an 11 game versus an Angels lineup that was better then than they are now. Trout remains cold (he missed that game) and Renfroe has cooled off as well from a power perspective. Bello’s confidence should be much higher here and Anaheim has struck out 24% over the last week, he’s gonna get the K’s and we just need him to not go wild with walks.
Also Dont Mind: Alex Cobb, Kyle Bradish
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
The Dodgers are letting Bobby Miller make his MLB debut in Atlanta and this is one Dodger prospect who I do think deserves the hype and he is a hard thrower which makes his debut vs Strider all the more fitting.
9 times out of 10, I don’t even bother giving it a glance, but not much really jumps out at me overall today and his $5200 price after a night when we saw offense dominate might make you say, hey, that’ll work for me. But caution that he has not faced more than 21 batters in any minor league game (his last one) and the three starts he did make before that he was slowly brought along with some big time struggles. Yes, the AAA team was in the mighty hitter friendly PCL, but I’ve got a hard and fast rule here and it’s done play rookies making their debut. That said, 4 IP, 5 strikeouts is probably a realistic expectation here.
Out of E-Rod, Cobb, Senga I don’t see the value in running any of them out there. E-Rod has been magical for Detroit but good weather for HR in Kauffman and the Royals offense maybe coming out of their slump has me off him. Similar concerns on Cobb who the Twins should hopefully keep a normal lineup in versus him today and I just dont like Senga, so it’s personal I guess. Shoot, I don’t like E-Rod either, so I guess that’s personal too… I can be exclusive here, it’s my Club.
Don’t play Marco Gonzales. I know he is better at home and Oakland isn’t a good team but he’s just not right and probably won’t ever get normal again or certainly not before he is put on IL until the all-star break or moved to the bullpen, or shipped out on some boat to China.
Players listed with each team are the primary options to build around.
TOP STACK
Marlins/Rockies (Soler, De La Cruz, Cooper / Blackmon, Profar)
Center things around these guys. We should get some rough bullpen innings tonight and the prices wont kill you in the chalk donkey spot today out in Coors FIeld.
SECONDARY STACKS
Padres (Tatis, Soto, Xander, Kim) … Very difficult to lock in these guys with Darvish and still have a respectable build.
Astros/Brewers (Altuve, Bregman / Anderson)
Red Sox (Devers, Verdugo)
Orioles (Mullins, Rustchman, Santander)
CATCHER
- Eric Haase
- Austin Nola
- Shea Langeliers
FIRST BASE
- Garrett Cooper
- Freddie Freeman
- Nelson Cruz
SECOND BASE
Not a great position but I do like two pay up guys here. Or we can just take the bottom of the order Babe Ruth in Jose Caballero who is way up in a tree right now, but what goes up, must come down, so I’ll pass on that cheap heater.
- Jose Altuve
- Christopher Morel
- Ha-Seong Kim
THIRD BASE
I like about 20 guys here tonight, but let’s call out the contrarian ones who won’t break the bank for you either.
- JD Davis
- Jean Segura … Cmon, 3400 in Coors?
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Jeremy Pena
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Aaron Judge
- Juan Soto
- Bryan De La Cruz
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Charlie Blackmon
- Cedric Mullins
- Anthony Santander
- Ronald Acuna Jr
OUTFIELD – Value
- Ramon Laureano
- Brenton Doyle
- Mitch Haniger
- Matt Vierling
- Brian Anderson – 3B – Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees
- Eric Haase – C/OF – Tigers
- Jorge Soler – OF – Marlins
- Garrett Cooper – 1B – Marlins
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Padres
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- BONUS ……………….. Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
K Props
- Darvish OVER 5.5 strikeouts
- Gray UNDER 6.5
- Bello OVER 5.5
Best ML Picks:
- Orioles +154 … Anything over +150 is great here, good chance they fall behind 1-0 after Judge’s first inning homer too, so in game you can get them to come back on the Yanks pen
- Like the Mets at anything better than -130
Best Totals:
- Giants/Twins OVER 7.5