RBC Canadian Open
Jack had a tough setup! Kudos to Viktor Hovland for playing better on the weekend than the rest of the field.
Next week is a Major! The U. S. Open at the L. A. Country Club! That normally depletes a field the week before. The biggest thing the Canadian Open had going for it is:
- It is a “National” Open Championship
- There are several quality Canadian players in the PGA that will play
- RBC sponsors several PGA players who should – I said should – have an obligation to play
Apparently, it’s not “big enough” for the LIV guys to play since none of them are here and I don’t believe they are excluded. I may be wrong if the PGA has more control over this tournament than I think, but I really thought they would be allowed to play. However, I guess the “need” to win the U. S. Open to “prove dominance” is more important to the LIV golf execs.
Sorry, I digressed again, but this “we’re better than you” mentality of the leadership in the PGA and LIV is ridiculous!
Am I clairvoyant? Not more that 15 minutes after I typed this, I get a notification on my phone that says: “PGA Tour announces landmark merger with Saudi-backed LIV Golf!” We’re even bringing in the DP World Tour! AWESOME!! Now we can stop the pissing contests!
Let’s do this!
Highlights: Oakdale Golf and Country Club
- Par 72 – 7,264 yards (A short course by PGA standards)
- Par 72 but only 3 Par 5s and 3 Par 3s
- Average fairway width
- Long, thick rough and plenty of trees lining fairways
- Elevated tees so it will actually play even shorter
- Average speed Bentgrass/POA Greens
- New course to the Tour so we won’t have any course history
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Par 4 Scoring (PAR4)
- Shots Gained Approach (Specifically 100 – 175 yards)
Using the tool that I subscribe to, I’m going to put 30% on T2G, 30% on PAR4 and 40% on SG: APP. I’m going to spread the Approach weighting between the yardages noted above because most approaches will be short irons – and, yes, for these guys, 175 yards can be a short iron!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Tyrrell Hatton | $10,200 |
| Justin Rose | $ 9,700 |
| Corey Conners | $ 9,800 |
| Cameron Young | $ 9,300 |
| Sam Burns | $10,500 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $ 9,900 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $ 9,600 |
| Shane Lowry | $ 9,400 |
| Sahith Theegala | $ 9,200 |
That was pretty predictable if you were told to pick ten without the stats. I figure these would have been the popular names. Problem: You don’t have enough salary!
Corey Conners has played like complete shit in his last three rounds (75 PGA and 77-75 at Memorial). Now, being Canadian, I expect better from him this week but I’m not rushing to him at $9,800. Sahith Theegala is another one I’m not sure about right now. I saw where someone posted on Twitter that his game has fallen off dramatically since he posted pictures with his new girlfriend. If it’s on the internet, it has to be true right? Look, I’m not blaming the girlfriend but he hasn’t been playing as well since mid-April. He’s been T58-T40-T56 in his last three events and over par for the week in all of them. Granted, the PGA and Memorial are in there but you can’t pay over $9K for that kind of finish.
With that being said, expect a playoff this week between Conners and Theegala!
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History: Sorry! Nothing to see here!
Gut/My Favorites:
- Tyrrell Hatton ($10,200) – He’s still on a tear! Granted, he never really contended at The Memorial, but he also was consistent as usual! Again, I may be wrong, but I don’t see this course “flipping the Tyrrell switch” and getting him so angry, his game disappears. Much like Rahm, his temper may be his only flaw in his game.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,500) – Look, all of the “big names” are going to be expensive this week. It’s what happens in depleted fields. I think Rory’s ownership will be higher this week because he has been playing better, but not owning him in one lineup may keep you from the winner. I would not go crazy though.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,900) – I think the kid is back. Still a high price, but $1,600 less than Rory with just as much chance, or more, to win it.
- Justin Rose ($9,700) – This just reeks of a “Rosie Tournament” to me.
$7,500 to $8,900
“Zone”/”No Zone”…this just keeps bouncing back and forth. However, you must play here to play a proper DFS lineup!
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($8,400)** – DAMNIT! I know I told you all to give me shit if I picked him again! I know he played like an amateur last week! But, with the rest of the crap here, please forgive me to riding this train for one more week!
- Michael Kim ($8,000) – he’s only made 11 out of 20 cuts. However, he’s made 7 of his last 8. He has three Top 10s in that span. We need a cut! He can give us that.
- Eric Cole ($7,900) – He will likely be one of the higher-owned in this group but this is a tournament where he can be successful.
- Adrian Meronk ($8,600)** – World Tour guy! Last four events: T5-T40(PGA)-1st-T21. He’s been playing really well on the World Tour and, I’m sure, is playing here to get ready for next week – or qualify if he hasn’t already. Look, you don’t have two wins on ANY TOUR if you can’t play!
- Vincent Norrman ($7,500) – Just another guy to give you who has made four of his last five cuts.
$7,000 to $7,400
Yes, you will likely need to go here too!
- Andrew Novak ($7,000)** – Making 80% of his cuts! $7,000 price tag! Do I really need to explain this recommendation?
- Aaron Baddeley ($7,200)** – In the years I’ve been doing this, I don’t recall recommending Aaron as a play. Again, 80% of his cuts including 6 in a row.
- Garrick Higgo ($7,100) – I like this lefty and he played reasonably well last week. He’s been inconsistent with cuts but sometimes. It’s a gut play thing.
- Dylan Wu ($7,000) – He’s missed his last two cuts but made 13/16 prior to that. Again, he’s streaky, but at this price, a made cut is all you need.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- Sam Bennett ($6,900)
- Seung-Yul Noh ($6,800)
- Mike Weir ($6,000) – He’s 8 of 8 in cuts made on The Champions Tour. His only missed cut was The Masters. And, he’s Canadian! Call him my “I only have $6K, what the hell do I do now” pick.
- Zecheng Dou ($6,900) – Again, three straight cuts made on the PGA Tour. (-20) at the Byron Nelson so he has the ability to make birdies. This course is likely to be a shootout so he can at least score you a lot of points.
LONGSHOT(S)
- Michael Thorbjornsen ($7,600)
This guy is an amateur playing at Stanford. He’s played a few events on the PGA and WT in the past so he has some experience and the game to make the cut. Getting 6/6 in any lineup this week will be tough with 156 golfers in the tournament. HE WILL NOT BE HIGHLY OWNED unless everyone reads this article or a few others that I’ve seen that mention his name.
- Aaron Cockerill ($7,000)
While I never recommend a Canadian in the Canadian Open simply because he is Canadian, I do look for the ones that are playing well coming in – especially the cheap ones! He plays on the WT, hasn’t missed a cut since mid-March, and his recent play is T10-T16-T21-2nd-T13! Sign me up!!
LONG-LONGSHOT!
- Jake Knapp ($6,500) – Korn Ferry Tour guy that’s made 10 of 11 cuts there and, in a depleted field, could last through the weekend in O’ Canada!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!