The Open Championship
Well, we had some duds last week. But, we also had a couple of good calls too. Rory McIlroy, Tom Kim, Robert Macintyre and Eric Cole. The wind on the final day played havoc with a lot of guys who were in contention Saturday evening. That’s links golf!
I feel good about this week though. Off the top of my head, I’m thinking McIlroy and Macintyre both continue to play well. I also see Hatton, Scheffler, Fleetwood and Lowry to contend as well. Of the guys that weren’t at the Scottish Open, you can’t count out Brooks, Rahm, DJ or the defending champ, Cam Smith.
This will be another week where that lineup looks terrific, but come Friday evening, you’ll wonder how at least one of them didn’t make the cut.
The Open Championship is being played at The Royal Liverpool Golf Club which hosted the tournament in 2006 and 2014. Rory won in 2014, but the course has undergone some changes since then. The Par 3-17th hole was completely re-worked and the 10th hole was changed from a 530-yard Par 5 to a 504-yard Par 4. The finishing hole was extended by 50 yards and, apparently, this brings bunkers into play. Bunkers? In England? Oh shit!!
Anyway, the course is now a Par 71 instead of a Par 72. I’m not expecting a -17 winning score, but, hey, someone may do just that.
Highlights: The Royal Liverpool Golf Club
- Par 71 – 7,383 yards
- Links-style course
- Deep Bunkers and tall fescue rough
- Bentgrass/POA mix greens
- WEATHER!!! WEATHER!!! WEATHER!!!
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Around-the-Green (SG: ATG)
- Shots Gained Putting (SG: P)
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
This week’s mix:
35% – 35% – 30% respectively
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Brooks Koepka | $10,400 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $ 9,300 |
| Alexander Bjork | $ 6,700 |
| Cameron Smith | $10,700 |
| Rickie Fowler | $ 9,800 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $ 9,500 |
| Jason Day | $ 7,800 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $ 9,400 |
| Max Homa | $ 8,400 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $ 9,900 |
Others of note:
Rory McIlroy (11th – $11,900); Jon Rahm (12th – $11,200); and Xander Schauffele (14th – $10,100). I note these because they will be popular plays and I didn’t want you to think that they sucked – statistically. It all comes down to my choice in weighting and stats to include.
As for current form (one of my favorites):
Scottie Scheffler ($12,500); Brooks Koepka ($10,400); Cameron Smith ($10,700); Rory McIlroy ($11,900); Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400); Viktor Hovland ($10,000); Rickie Fowler ($9,800); Wyndham Clark ($8,700); Bryson DeChambeau ($8,800); Denny McCarthy ($7,300).
I think that DeChambeau and McCarthy are steals at those prices and Alexander Bjork ($6,700) is also Top 15 in current form.
As a note, DK has lowered the minimum price for golfers this week to $5,500. So, you will definitely be able to “Stars-and-Scrubs” it this week. Will it stay that way? Who knows.
This will be an interesting week.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
“The Open” History:
- Rory McIlroy ($11,900) – Top 5 five times since 2014 including the win here in 2014.
- Xander Schauffele ($10,100) – never missed a cut in five attempts.
- Jordan Spieth ($9,700) – Never missed a cut in 9 attempts including a win and 5 Top 10s. Now, he isn’t a “Gut Favorite” of mine and I probably won’t play him in more than one lineup, if at all. But, maybe that’s why I’m bitching about being in a DFS slump!
Gut/My Favorites:
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300) – Why? It’s not because I’m thinking he’ll win – although he might. I’m thinking how consistently he’s playing right now and how he has a history of playing the oxymoron. Good/Great Bad-Weather golf! Oh, and his good-weather game isn’t bad either! Confused yet?
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,500) – Last week, his short game wasn’t good. 90th in SG: ATG and 109th in SG: Putting. Of course, those two statistics lead to a bad showing. Oh wait, what? I’m wrong? Oh Hell, he finished in a Tie for 3rd? No way! If playing poorly in those aspects of the game – on a links-style course – result in a 3rd place finish, I’m in! Again, as I’ve said before, if you think Scottie Scheffler isn’t a good play right now – at whatever price – you aren’t watching golf.
- Rickie Fowler ($9,800) – I’m not leaving the Rickie-train until he gives me a reason…especially when he’s $2,700 cheaper than Scottie. (Yes, other than price, I’m repeating myself!)
- Brooks Koepka ($10,400) – It’s Brooks and it’s a Major – nothing more needs said.
Rory McIlroy ($11,900), Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400), Shane Lowry ($9,100), and Viktor Hovland ($10,000) will also see some of my lineups this week.
Mega Multi-entry guys should have a field day this week. There are so many variations of great lineups that can be had if everyone performs – we know they won’t. That’s why I’m sticking to Single-Entry and low-entry contests this week. That, and the fact that I’ve been sucking lately. My picks on here haven’t been bad. I’m just too dumb to listen to my own advice!
$7,500 to $8,900
You can go stars-and-scrubs or balanced this week. If you choose balance, you can live here or in the Top Tier and the tiers below – well, at least one Tier below. I’m going clean this week. Just picks. Little commentary. Besides, I bitched enough above. There are just so many quality picks.
- Tom Kim ($8,100)** – Looked good in Scotland.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($8,800)**
- Sam Burns ($8,500)
- Max Homa ($8,400)**
- Patrick Reed ($7,600)**
- Adam Scott ($7,900)
- Tony Finau ($8,200) – too cheap even though he’s missed a couple of cuts
- Talor Gooch ($7,800) – playing the best on LIV right now and is cheaper than most
$7,000 to $7,400
Yes, if you have to, you have options:
- Ryan Fox ($7,400)**
- Denny McCarthy ($7,300)** – last 4 events = T10-T7-T20-2nd
- Brian Harman ($7,300) – last 4 events = T12-T9-T2-T43
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,100) – I know I quit playing him out of spite a few weeks ago, but he was T6 last week
- Ben An ($7,000), Lucas Herbert ($7,000) and Sepp Straka ($7,000)
Under $7,000
This is not your typical “Scrub Zone” – I actually like some of these guys more than those in the $7K Tier:
- Louis Oosthuizen ($6,900) – will he stay healthy? That’s the only concern.
- Alexander Bjork ($6,700)**
- Robert Macintyre ($6,800)**
- Phil Mickelson ($6,900) – you can never really count Phil out at The Open Championship can you?
Even Lower:
- Padraig Harrington ($6,600)
- Yannik Paul ($6,500) – T25-T49-T8-T3
- Thomas Detry ($6,400) – C’mon!
- Ewen Ferguson ($6,100) – T12 and T4 in last two events
Sub $6K:
- Marcel Siem ($5,800)
- Richie Ramsay ($5,900) – made his last 8 cuts with three Top 10s. Sign me up!
- Antoine Rozner ($5,800) – 8 straight cuts
LONGSHOT(S)
Alexander Bjork ($6,700)
Liked him last week! Like him this week! Will he win? Probably not, but we’ve seen stranger things.
Richie Ramsay ($5,900)
Look. Making cuts in the $7K range is value. Makings cuts under $6K is INSANE! Between Siem, Ramsay and Rozner, they’ve missed one cut in the last 3 months and are 24/25 total. Each of them has made 8 STRAIGHT CUTS!!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!