The American Express
Well, we’re done with Hawai’i! As most of you saw, the three lineups I put in the four-day tournaments didn’t do poorly, but they didn’t produce a lot of revenue. However, my Sunday Showdown lineup where I finished 3rd (5 points from $25K) and won $5,000 saved my weekend. That makes for a nice start to the year and a bankroll!
I’ve started playing the Showdown slates (1-3 lineups) the last couple of years. It helps to keep my interest if I know by Friday afternoon that my regular lineups have found a permanent home in the local landfill. I have somewhat of a strategy, but I’ll talk about it at the end. This week, we move on to California! The nice thing for us East Coast players is a late lock.
PGA DFS is such a quirky thing. For example, one bad shot can equal a missed cut! In NFL, a Mahomes’ interception costs you three points. A Tom Kim double bogey on the 18th can cost you two days of points in DFS. Another reason, why I’ve started dabbling in Showdowns.
THIS IS AN ODD TOURNAMENT!! While we are away from no-cut events for a little while, we are getting into a somewhat quirky part of the season with Pro-Ams, multiple courses in an event, and 54-hole cuts. That’s what we have this week.
Highlights: The Stadium Course – Par 72 @ 7,113 yards. (Played twice)
The Nicklaus Course – Par 72 @ 7,152 yards
La Quinta – Par 72 @ 7,060 yards (Typically the easiest course on Tour)
The Nicklaus Course and La Quinta are the easiest scoring courses and the players will need to shoot low on these two courses to stay in contention. The Stadium Course is an easier-scoring course as well, but being a TPC, there are some blow-up holes.
TIP: If you are someone that plays the Showdowns, try to target guys on Nicklaus and La Quinta on Thursday – Saturday.
THIS IS A PHENOMENAL FIELD FOR THIS EARLY IN THE YEAR. YOU USUALLY DON’T SEE SO MANY GUYS IN THE TOP 20 PLAYING HERE.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
I normally don’t use this category, but there have been so few guys in the five-figure range, I thought it may be a good idea just to address all of them. Because this is a guaranteed 3-round tournament, you can take a little more risk with these guys and hit the mid to low $7K guys to balance out your cost. Most weeks, I’m really only interested in one of these guys if I think they can finish Top 10. Otherwise, the return doesn’t justify the cost.
- Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) – Now that’s a high price! But, he is arguably the best player in the world right now. History here: T11-T25-MC-3rd
- Xander Schauffele ($10,900) – History here: T3 & MCs in 2017 & 2016
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,800) – He is one of my favorite plays every week. He usually makes cuts and can pop out a sub-66 round at any time. It’s also why I like him in Showdowns. History here: T26-9th-2nd-T9
- Sungjae Im ($10,100) – Consistent as hell! History here: T18-T11-T12-T10-T12
Again, I like Top 10s when I play these guys. If I was starting with one, it would be Cantlay. In order, I’d go Cantlay-Scheffler-Im-Schauffele!
$9,000 and Above
- Justin Thomas ($9,800)** – I think he still may be priced a little high given the disappointing season he had in 2023. He hasn’t played here since 2015 and I think the poor showing last year is why he’s at it early this year. His last three events were 3rd (Hero), 4th (Nedbank Challenge – WT) and 5th (Fortinet). Is he back? Who the hell knows! But, I’ll take a chance with the three-round guarantee.
- Tom Kim ($9,900)** – Normally, you won’t see me take the two highest-priced guys in a tier as my “favorites”. But, I just have a good feeling about these two. Doubt I can get them both in a lineup, but I may try.
- J. T. Poston ($9,100) – He finished 6th and T5 at Waialae and Kapalua respectively. Right now, he’s just clicking. .
- Chris Kirk ($9,000) – Kirk is playing spectacularly right now! At some point, it may fall off but a T3 here last year and two easy courses give me some comfort.
$8,000 to $9,000
- Eric Cole ($8,800)** – This is a cheap price for a guy that is playing at an elite level right now. Five Top 15s in his last five, including three Top 5s. He was T36 here last year in his only visit, but he wasn’t playing near as well.
- Taylor Montgomery ($8,100)** – I know, who? Not a name most casual players would flock to unless they had $8,100 left for their 6th golfer. He’s another one playing well right now and finished 5th her last year.
- Andrew Putnam ($8,000) – Six straight made cuts here and coming off a T10 last week. He’s playing well now and is salary relief too along with Montgomery.
- Adam Hadwin ($8,300) – Oh, he pissed me off last week with a missed cut! But, this tournament seems to be one of his favorites. I remember watching the T2-T3-2nd-T6 finishes from 2019-2016 respectively. Shows how long I’ve been playing DFS because I took him as a low-priced longshot in one of those years and won!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Nick Taylor ($7,500)** – Current form play.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,300)** – Bless you! Yeah, sounds like a sneeze but his game is nothing to sneeze at. He floundered a bit last year but he plays well here and has three Top 20s (two Top 10s) in his last three World Tour events.
- Matthieu Pavon ($7,200) – I played him as a filler last week and he finished T7. He’s been really hot on the WT with 5 Top 10s in his last 6 events (including a win).
- Patton Kizzire ($7,000) – T11 & T22 in last two visits here. Two top 15s in his last four events as well. It’s worth a shot at $7K.
Under $7,000
Normally, this is slim pickings. However, as I said, in guaranteed 3-day tournaments, you can take a chance and lose fewer points if they fail to make the cut. But, Wow! I may stop at $7K because this is dog crap!
- Carl Yuan ($6,900)** – T4 last week.
- Nico Echavarria ($6,500)
- Troy Merritt ($6,500)
- Robert Macintyre ($6,800)**
Longshot(s):
- Erik van Rooyen ($7,500) – T6 last year and made cuts with a T22 in last two weeks.
- Matt Wallace ($7,400) – I’ve been playing him the last few weeks and he’s in two of my lineups this week already – although I doubt I use him more than once.
As promised, Showdown tactics:
- On weeks like this, look at who is playing the easy courses Thursday – Saturday.
- On Sunday, you get points for finishing position, so focus on guys near the top third of the leader board.
- Other days, I look first at how a guy is playing and then look at what his “round average” is for that particular round. You can sort this on DK.
- If a guy shoots lights out (sub-65) one day, don’t count on him doing the same thing the next. Especially if it’s Sunday. Guys at the top tend to “protect” and don’t necessarily shoot a low round. You still get the position points but, usually, a guy that shoots 65, 66, or 67 and moves up the board will get you more points than a winner that shoots even par.
- GUT FEELING!! Yeah, I know, what kind of strategy is that? While Showdowns keep you interested and can make a bad week great, they are a lot of luck! I can’t predict what a guy will shoot from one round to the next. I can only go by how he statistically plays.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!