Mexico Open at Vidanta
The limited field last week didn’t help me much but I saw where at least of couple of you did pretty well. JT, Wyndham and Fitzpatrick missing the cut didn’t help. The balance lineup seemed to be the best approach, but you never know.
We go from a solid field to what has the feel of a mid-season AA MLB game this week. There are a couple of recognizable names, but when Emiliano Grillo who was $6,900 last week is now $11,100 somethings amiss. DraftKings even decided to start pricing guys under $6,000 this week to try to entice you to pick the guys at the top. When you have over 30 guys below $6K and you can’t pick a handful of them as possible fillers or plays, you avoid. So, essentially, unless you’re “feeling lucky”, DK eliminated about 25% of the field this week in my opinion.
Highlights:
Vidanta Vallarta – Par 71, 7456 yards
Wide fairways and shortish rough – cue the Bombers!
Paspalum grass on the greens and not very fast.
This is only the third time this event has been played and the two previous winning scores have been -24 and -17 respectively.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Play any of them that you like. There isn’t much to pick from. However, I don’t think you gain an advantage loading guys at the top with 2 or 3 sub-$6K guys. You will likely have 3 or 4 out of 6 going into Saturday.
- Tony Finau ($12,000) – the obvious pick with a Win and a T2 in the previous two years, but damn that’s a high price. I think people will probably load up with him as the “obvious winner” but I think he’s only playing because he’s defending. And, I like another guy better.
- Emiliano Grillo ($11,100) – A $4,200 price bump from last week? Yeah, ok. He’s playing well and is playable, but $11K for a potential T40? NOPE!
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,700) – If I’m playing one, this is it! T33 here last year. His talent level will result in a win at some point and a field like this is a prime spot.
- Thorbjorn Olesen ($10,300) – this may be my number 2. If I’m playing someone at five figures, I want a chance to have the winner – Top 10 at least. I think these two may be the best fits this week since I think Finau just goes through the motions. I may be wrong, but saving $1,300 to $1,700 is worth it to me.
- Thomas Detry ($10,100) – Playing well and worth a look. He and Finau may rank in a tie for 3rd out these guys this week.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Ryo Hisatsune ($9,200)** – MC at Waste Management because of a poor first round and the cluster of a weather-event that was. Think he’s good here in a weak field.
- Erik van Rooyen ($9,500) – Another MC at Waste Management, but 3 of 4 Top 25s prior to that. T6 and T2 in last two years
- Patrick Rodgers ($9,700)** – This is based on his recent play and a T10 and a 10th alone finish in this tournament. His last two events weren’t spectacular but I’m following the course fit theory here.
- Stephan Jaeger ($9,800) – T18 and T15 here in the last two years an no missed cuts this season.
- Brandon Wu ($9,100) – 3rd and T2 in last two years. Current form is less than desirable, but again, course fit apparently.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Jake Knapp ($8,700) – Korn Ferry graduate that’s missed one cut this season.
- Michael. Kim ($8,200)** – He’s a consistent player. He’s not going to bomb it but, lets face it, none of these guys are really short.
- Maverick McNealy ($8,100) – He’s a bomber and is playing a better as of late.
- Cameron Champ ($8,600) – This is a longshot! Four straight missed cuts but, T8 and T6 the last two years. Does he bomb his way to a Top 10 or head to Arnie’s place early?
$7,000 to $7,900
- Seonghyeon Kim ($7,900)** – Cheap price for a guy playing well and had a T24 here last year.
- Alejandro Tosti ($7,800)** – T10 here last year. Not much more on him other than a good feeling.
- Carson Young ($7,400)
- Sam Stevens ($7,100)
- Chris Gotterup ($7,100)
Under $7,000
- Jorge Campillo ($6,400)
- Justin Lower ($6,100)
- Nothing else is really giving me a good feeling. Some will hit, but I’m done!
Longshot(s)
- Chesson Hadley ($7,700) – 7 of last 8 cuts made and missed at Waste Management – that appears to be a recurring theme!
CORE PLAYS (Listing 6 – Maybe play 3):
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,700)
- Erik van Rooyen ($9,500)
- Ryo Hisatsune ($9,200)
- Maverick McNealy ($8,100)
- Seonghyeon Kim ($7,900)
- Carson Young ($7,400)
I’m $2,800 over the cap but you can play around with it and make substitutions!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!