Valspar Championship
That was exciting! I just wish some of my guys would have had better weekends. Anyway, let the insanity continue. Welcome to the Snake Pit!
We’ve been spoiled the last few weeks with quality fields. Well, that ends now! There are a few quality players, but the lower tiers aren’t as forgiving – especially when we are looking at one of the lowest scoring events on Tour and a difficult course.
Highlights: Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course
- Par 71 – 7,340 yards
- Four Par 5s and Five Par 3s
- No short Par 3s
- Fairways are very narrow
- Greens are small (Bermuda over seeded with POA)
- Snake Pit (Holes 16-18)
This is a difficult scoring track. This week won’t depend so much on a high number of birdies and eagles this week! The key this week will be avoiding bogeys!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Four guys! That’s it!
- Xander Schauffele ($11,200) – Probably the most solid player in regard to current form and has the SECOND best “bogey avoidance” rating in the last 16 rounds.
- Sam Burns ($10,900) – Outside of X, Sam seems to be playing most consistently of these 4 guys. His last two finishes have been mediocre, but he had a great 3rd round last week. Prior to those finishes, he had four straight Top 10s. Never missed a cut here and last three were 6th-Win-Win!
- Justin Thomas ($10,400) – Right now, putting is killing him! It’s either Top 15 or missed cut. His history here is good with 5 Top 20s (3 Top 10s) and a missed cut. He came off his only other MC this year and finished T12. I wouldn’t rule him out, but I personally rank him below the other two above.
- Jordan Spieth ($10,200) – I have not been excited at all about Jordan’s play this year and I doubt that changes this week. T3 last year.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Nick Taylor ($9,100)** – I’m loving his current form.
- Brian Harman ($9,800) – I’m not near as confident this week, but he is playing well. The biggest thing here, I think, will be: Is he pumped by a T2 last week? OR Is he disappointed and playing because he committed?
- Tony Finau ($9,300) – I think he plays well this week.
- Cameron Young ($9,600)
- Sungjae Im ($9,400)** – my second favorite in this group.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,800)**
- Aaron Rai ($8,500)**
- Maverick McNealy ($8,100)
- Keith Mitchell ($8,900) – he didn’t perform like “Legend” and I thought last week, but he’s accurate and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes – keys at Copperhead!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Taylor Montgomery ($7,500)**
- Taylor Moore ($7,800)
- Sam Ryder ($7,300)**
- Daniel Berger ($7,200) – willing to take a risk at this price
Under $7,000
- Jimmy Stanger ($6,900)
- Victor Perez ($6,900)
- Joel Dahmen ($6,800)
- Seamus Power ($6,600)
- Benjamin Silverman ($6,500)
$6,000 & Under (They made me do it)
NOPE – NOT GOING HERE THIS WEEK!
Longshot(s)
- Hayden Springer ($6,100) – I know he’s not the force he used to be. I know he’s unlikely to win. But, to me, this is a mistake! TOO CHEAP!!!!!
CORE PLAYS (Listing 6 – Maybe play 3):
- Xander Schauffele ($11,200)
- Sam Burns ($10,900)
- Maverick McNealy ($8,100)
- Aaron Rai ($8,500)
- Taylor Moore ($7,800)
- Seamus Power ($6,600)
I’m $3,100 over the cap! FYI – I’m going light this week!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!