Farmers Insurance Open
THIS IS A WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENT!!!
Like last week, we have a multi-course event. Unlike last week, we have the normal cut after two days with everyone playing the North Course once and the South Course once at Torrey Pines. The weekend (which is actually Friday & Saturday) will be played entirely on the South Course (the more difficult one) with the Top 65 and ties.
Stack your Wednesday and Thursday Showdown lineups with guys on the North Course since it is the easier of the two. Weekend? Pick the guys that shine in a U. S. Open style setting since the South Course plays like that.
With that being said about the Showdown lineups, our 4-day lineups should also lean towards guys that play difficult setups better – Aberg, Matsuyama, etc. Problem there is all of them are $9,000 and higher. We need to find some good players at lower prices. I like “West Coast” Homa too, and he’s $1,500 cheaper than last year at $8,600.
Highlights: Torrey Pines (South & North)
South Course – Par 72 @ 7,700 yards. Thick rough! (It’s a beast and those making the cut will play it 3 times)
North Course – Par 72 @ 7,200 yards
THE SOUTH COURSE IS PLAYED 3 TIMES AND IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT!
The South Course has POA ANNUA greens while the North has Bentgrass. The key will be staying away from bogeys or worse. Bombers will have an advantage due to the length, but the fairways aren’t huge so the “Bomber-Sprayers” may not be as lucky.
Again, look for guys that perform well in Majors. I’ll try to point them out, but if you have a gut feeling, go for it.
THIS IS ALSO AN ODD TOURNAMENT – but not as odd as last week!! This week, we only have TWO courses to deal with.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
We’ll look at these guys individually since there are only four. I’m really only interested in one of these guys if I think they can finish Top 10. Otherwise, the return doesn’t justify the cost.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700) – Made the cut the last 8 years. Probably the most experienced of all of the guys in the tier. Course difficulty leans in his favor.
- Ludvig Aberg ($10,800) – Yes, I have a “bromance” going on. T9 in his only effort in this odd-ball tournament. T5 and 6th in his last two events. I think there is always a correlation between tough courses and current form!
- Tony Finau ($10,200) – Missed cut last week at Sony. While that doesn’t bode well, you never know how he will do on setups like this. Finau is probably the best low-profile, low-energy guy on Tour. I don’t think you’ll get a Mickelson or Jordan “jump man” logo out of him even if he wins.
- Sungjae Im ($10,000) – Another one that missed the cut at Sony. However, he’s been Top 10 in his other two prior events. Missed cut here last year also so I’m leery.
In looking at tournament history with these guys, you have 11 Top 10s in 27 attempts. Aberg (1/1), Matsuyama (2/10), Finau (6/10) and Im (2/6). Take that for what it’s worth…just a statistic!
$9,000 to $9,900
- Keegan Bradley ($9,900)** – Many people will forget about a guy that’s been on Tour so long, especially since he’s been around long enough to earn a Ryder Cup captain spot. Being priced here, more people will play him. I like it when he’s in the $8K range. But, he’s playing well (T6-T15-5th) and hasn’t missed a cut here in while.
- Will Zalatoris ($9,500)** – I think he’s back from the injury now.
- Jason Day ($9,300) – I think he’s the Finau in this tier. Playing very well when no one is really expecting much or paying much attention. He’s won here twice, although the last one was 2018.
- Shane Lowry ($9,000) – He edges out Theegala here for me for one reason. Hard course needs a hard-core player. While Theegala if full of talent and does have a Top 10 here, I lean to experience and the “lunch pail” approach.
$8,000 to $8,900
- Ben Griffin ($8,100) – Current form is excellent!
- Aaron Rai ($8,300)** – Made the cut every year he has played and has two Top 15s in the last two events. Not much else to go on at this point in the season.
- Taylor Pendrith ($8,800) – I’m going tournament history here and the fact he’s played two of the last three weeks.
- Max Homa ($8,600)** – Past winner here and made 4 of last 5 cuts at the tournament. All Top 20 (including the Win in 2023). “WEST COAST HOMA”!! … That is all!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Stephan Jaeger ($7,800)**
- Mark Hubbard ($7,800)** – Faded a little last week but still T12.
- Justin Rose ($7,600) – I just can’t pass up playing him at this price. Like Keegan, he’s older and more experienced.
- This is the sweet-spot tier with several good options. Other than the ones above, I’d also consider: Thomas Detry ($7,900), Daniel Berger ($7,600), Matt Wallace ($7,500), Justin Lower ($7,300 – like him a lot), and Taylor Moore ($7,300).
- Probably should add last year’s winner is in this tier too. Matthieu Pavon ($7,200)
Under $7,000
We’re back to the point where this Tier is a stretch but we can find some positive salary-savers.
- Luke List ($6,800)
- Jackson Suber ($6,900)
- Joseph Bramlett ($6,900 – Tournament History Play)
- Sam Ryder ($6,800)
Longshot(s)
- Carson Young ($7,100)
- Frankie Capan ($7,100)
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!