AT&T Pebble Beach
Well, we are still in this “weird” part of the season. Multiple course events, Pro-Ams, No Cut, etc. Well, this week, we have it all! This is an “elevated event” with an 80-man field. Thus, the no cut scenario. For the past two years, the tournament has been held on two courses instead of three. And, of course, it’s the legendary Pro-Am. Again, fortunately for us, there won’t be a “Pro-Am Cut” where some play the weekend. The Pro-Am is done on Friday which, while the telecast loses the weekend comedy tour moments, the pros can focus on the weekend.
Highlights:
Pebble Beach – Par 72 @ 6,800 yards
Short course with wide fairways and short rough. The defenses for this course are the small greens and, being a seaside course, the weather.
Spyglass Hill – Par 72 @ 7,041 yards
Narrow fairways and is tree-lined. The longer of the two courses and, if the wind blows, the more protected. This course will only be played once by each player so, other than Thursday/Friday Showdowns, I wouldn’t worry about it – and that’s if the wind blows.
ALTHOUGH MORE FAMOUS, Pebble Beach is the easier of the two courses!
If the weather isn’t bad, I would stick with guys playing Pebble Beach in Showdown contests.
Putting and Wedge Play are key factors to success at Pebble and I’ve seen reports the, due to the lack of rain, the greens will be firm and fast. I’ll give you some guys in the upper Tiers whose wedge and putting stats are strong over the last 16 rounds. It may not be the same guys I pick so keep that in mind. For this, I’m going to use the following:
Shots-Gained Putting 50%
Approach Play:
75-100 yards 20%
100-125 yards 20%
125-150 yards 10%
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
Only three guys get the designation this week. With no cut and a limited field, the pricing of these guys isn’t as relevant.
- Scottie Scheffler ($11,900) – T6 here last year but his first appearance this year after a cooking mishap. We can’t rule him out! We never can until he gives us a reason.
- Rory McIlroy ($10,700) – not great here last year but his form is still impeccable.
- Collin Morikawa ($10,200) – Not knowing how Scottie will play, Morikawa may be my favorite.
Key Stat Rank (keep in mind, McIlroy is the only one playing more than once in the last 12 weeks):
- Scheffler (best putting)
- Morikawa (best on approach)
- McIlroy
$9,000 to $9,900
- Justin Thomas ($9,800)** – He’s in form right now and his approach game is typically one of the best with the wedges. T6 here last year.
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)** – T11-DNP-T4-T3-T11 in the last five years here. Current form is all Top 15. He’s guaranteed four rounds so I’m liking the consistency for points.
- Ludvig Aberg ($9,100) – The weather kicked his ass in rounds 2-4 last week. But, it kicked a lot of asses, took names, and laughed at them all the way to the finish last week. I’m still a huge Aberg fan!
- Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600) – Look, it’s one of those weeks. Everyone is viable in the Top two tiers (maybe even Top 3) to win this week. Good thing is, even the guys in the $6K range are guaranteed four rounds so loading up with these guys is easier.
Stat Rank (Top 3 in Tier):
Sam Burns ($9,200)
Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
Ludvig Aberg ($9,900)
$8,000 to $9,000
- Jason Day ($8,900)** – He’s played a good bit in the last 12 weeks and his form is excellent (3 Top 10s). He’s a Course Horse…T6-DNP-T24-T7-4th-T4-T2-T5-T11-T4!
- Keegan Bradley ($8,500)** – First time here last year – at least in the last 10 years -and was T11. He’s the model of under the radar good play. In four prior events this season, he’s T15-T6-T15-5th!
- Will Zalatoris ($8,400) – OK, I don’t know what the hell happened last week! I’m hoping he looked at the weather and said “bullshit! I’ll wait ‘til next week!” If he’s physically good, I think Pebble is a good place for him.
- Sepp Straka ($8,000) – I can’t believe I skipped guys like Hovland, Conners and Clark for Sepp. However, ALL THESE GUYS ARE GOOD! I like Straka’s form better right now but I’m sure I’ll be proven wrong now that I shaded those guys! Feel free to play any of them “in lieu of” the guys noted.
Stat Rank (Top 3):
Wyndham Clark ($8,600)
Taylor Pendrith ($8,300)
Viktor Hovland ($8,800)
$7,000 to $7,900
- Jordan Spieth ($7,900) – Spieth is a Course Horse – T39-T63-2nd-T3-T9-T45-T20-Win-T21-T7…T65 at 2019 Open. Spieth is also NOT THE SAME JORDAN that was a threat at the Majors in the past. Still, with his history, the price is a joke!
- Beau Hossler ($7,600)** – It’s a combination of course history (T14-T11-3rd) and recent play (T15-T12) that makes me feel good at this price.
- Max Greyserman ($7,800) – Playing better than this price right now!
- Thomas Detry ($7,400) – T4 last year and three Top 15s in his last five events.
- Tom Hoge & Harry Hall ($7,300) – I’m not 100% on them, but they’ve been very consistent with their play this season. Hoge has also won here!
- Nick Taylor ($7,200)** – Made 8 of 10 cuts here! Has a win here! Has a win in the last month! He is probably my favorite pick in this Tier when you combine price and play!
Stat Rank (Top 3):
Russell Henley ($7,900)
Beau Hossler ($7,600)
Denny McCarthy ($7,000)
Under $7,000
No cut so the salary savers become part of a stars and scrubs lineup.
- BRIAN HARMAN ($6,500) – I know it’s an Elevated Event and the pricing is a bit skewed. I know BH missed the cut at the American Express. But, what the hell! I could honestly play a lineup of all the guys below $7K and not feel like I’m finishing last this week!
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,400) – Same pattern as last year. Missed the cut in the tournament he played right before and finished T20 at Pebble. If he can Top 20 again for this price, it’s a win!
- Justin Rose ($6,300) – criminal at this price! MC’d last week but he plays well here.
- Lee Hodges ($6,200)
- Taylor Moore ($6,400)
- Nico Echavarria ($6,500)
Longshot(s)
No thanks in a No-Cut event! Tried it before and don’t like it!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!