Waste Management Phoenix Open
Outside of the Majors, this is my favorite tournament. It’s one of the most entertaining PGA tournaments to watch from multiple reasons. (1) It gives you something else to watch besides the NFL-heads repeating themselves ten times to fill the 12 hours of Super Bowl pre-game hype, (2) HOLE #16 – watch and you know what I mean and (3) the field I is usually solid!
We are back to the cut events! We can gain an advantage if we can get 6/6 through to the weekend. Getting 5/6 isn’t bad either. Less than that and you better have 4 guys in the Top 20 if you want to even have a chance.
Scottie Scheffler is $1,500 higher than the next guy – JT – and it’s $300 more of a difference than last year. Four guys are priced at or above $10K this week. Want to know why? Look:
Scheffler T3-Win-Win-T7-MC
JT T12-4th-T8-T13-T3-3rd
Hideki T22-T29-T8-T42-T16-T15-WD-Win-Win-T2
Burns T3-T6-MC-T22-MC-MC
OK, so maybe Sam Burns isn’t as consistent, but he’s playing very well right now with three Top 25s in 4 events this season.
Highlights:
TPC Scottsdale – Par 71 @ 7,261 yards
Ball strikers’ course with narrow fairways but little penalty for being less than accurate off the tee. The desert area can cause some issues if players are extremely wild. A few water hazards, but the one to left of Hole 17 seems to be the one that gobbles up the most due to players driving the Par 4.
Bombers will be able to take advantage of the course somewhat due to the lack of a penalty for being wild. Example: Hole 17! Drive it in the water and it’s still not too difficult of an up-and-down for these guys.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$10,000 and Above
I’m not splitting hairs this week. Play any of them that you feel good about. My order of preference would be exactly as I laid them out above and is the order of cost from high to low. Scottie’s price may be the best – if not the only – reason NOT to play him…and I don’t like that reason. You can get him in. I’ll give you enough low-priced guys to do it. In fact, the one lineup I set has him and a $9,200 guy in it.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Rasmus Hojgaard ($9,200)** – Yep! This is the guy! The twins are extremely good players from Denmark. Last year, Nicolai seemed to be the one we saw more of. This year, he’s spent more time on the World Tour. T22 last week and T14 in Dubai a few weeks ago.
- Sepp Straka ($9,400)** – Much higher price this week, but he’s earned it! He faded a little on Sunday last week with an Even Par round, but he led for a long time. Last 5: T7-Win-T30-T15-T9!
- Sahith Theegala ($9,500) – He’s been playing a good bit this year so far and I always like that early in the season. A 5th and a T3 in this event in the last three years gives me a good vibe too.
- Tom Kim ($9,600) – A gut call this week! He already has three Top 10s in his last 5 events. Ball strikers play well here.
$8,000 to $9,000
- Nick Taylor ($8,400)** – Recent play is good! Both this season and at TPC Scottsdale. Win and a 2nd place finish in the last two years! Plus, the tariffs are on hold so he won’t cost more this week! LMAO!!
- Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)** – Missed the cut here last year but I’m ok with that. In the last nine weeks? T22-37-T32-3rd-4th!
- Cameron Young ($8,100) – I think this is too cheap. However, although he has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and has three Top 15s, he just doesn’t seem to be the same guy. I’m fine with him at this price but he will need to play much better before I go over $9K with him.
- Jordan Spieth ($8,700) – This is a “hold your nose, play the name, and play the Course Horse” move. I have almost ZERO confidence in using Spieth as the auto-play he used to be. At this price, it would have been a “back up the truck” move in DFS. However, he’s played here 8 of the last 10 years and has FIVE TOP 10s. If he needs to get right, this is the place to do it! If you play golf, you understand!
$7,000 to $7,900
- Min Woo Lee ($7,900)** – T17 in his last two events and 4 Top 20s in his last 5. I also think he slides a little under the radar because he’s not a well-known name to those who only play DFS casually. Oh, and that lineup I mentioned, he’s in it.
- Harry Hall ($7,700)** – This may be my new Ian Poulter…if you know, you know.
- Billy Horschel ($7,600) – After seeing him do the Dirty Bird at the TGL match a few weeks ago, I realized just how chill this guy is. Emotions under control typically equals better play.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,700); Max Homa ($7,300) and Brian Harman ($7,300) – Just too damn cheap for the talent!
Besides the two above, I’d consider:
- Keith Mitchell ($7,500)
- Lucas Glover ($7,400)
- Thomas Detry ($7,300)
- Tom Hoge ($7,400)
- Lee Hodges ($7,100)
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,000)
THIS TIER IS LOADED WITH POSSIBILITIES!!!!
Under $7,000
If you use Scheffler and Thomas in the same lineup, you have an average of $6,875 per golfer for the final four selections. While, I’m not a big fan of that, it’s clearly possible. If you do this, look for guys that make cuts in this range first: Victor Perez (7/8), Jake Knapp (4/5) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (6/7).
I do like the following guys too:
- Frankie Capan ($6,800)
- Erik Van Rooyen ($6,800)
- Ryan Fox ($6,900)
- Nico Echavarria ($6,800)
- Matthieu Pavon ($6,100)
Longshot(s)
- Charley Hoffman ($7,200) – What appears to be a reinvigorated Charley! He’s also sponsored by Waste Management and likes this tournament.
- Luke Clanton ($8,300) – As soon as he gets some PGA Tour legs and consistency, his price will only go up!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!