The Rams are coming to Denver to run the ball, and through two weeks Denver hasn’t been able to stop anyone on the ground. The Broncos allow 0.243 EPA per carry. The Rams allow 0.012. Los Angeles averages about 28 runs to 25 passes in our simulations, and the total has fallen from 46.5 to 42.5 since the open. Puka Nacua hasn’t practiced all week, so this is a Rams team that should win the way the market is betting on: slowly, on the ground, with Stafford throwing only when he has to.
We’re playing that script straight. The picks follow what our simulations say should happen, not the longest odds on the board:
- The Rams win. They win 60.4% of our 20,000 simulations. At -126 the moneyline implies 55.8%.
- Stafford’s volume stays down. We project 217 passing yards and the simulations average 222, against a line of 238.5 to 245.5.
- Kyren Williams is the captain. He’s the favorite’s lead back against the worst run defense on the field, and the likeliest touchdown on the board.
- The field is underpricing Davante Adams. He has the highest ceiling in the pool and 7.4% projected ownership.
Model vs. market: anytime touchdowns
| Player | Best price | Market | Model | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren WilliamsLAR · RB | -105 | 51.2% | 47.4% | 0.93 |
| Davante AdamsLAR · WR | +115 | 46.5% | 20.0% | 0.43 |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB | +160 | 38.5% | 37.9% | 0.98 |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR | +210 | 32.3% | 16.0% | 0.50 |
| Blake CorumLAR · RB | +275 | 26.7% | 28.9% | 1.08 |
| RJ HarveyDEN · RB | +350 | 22.2% | 25.9% | 1.17 |
On this board the running backs are fairly priced and the receivers aren’t. Dobbins (+160 at BetMGM) is a fair price: the back who played 40% of Denver’s snaps last week has been ruled out, so those carries go back to Dobbins. Williams at -105 is close to fair, and our model has no better bet on a single player scoring. Adams at 0.43 is the one we won’t chase. Across Stafford’s 16 logged starts Adams scored 13 times on 45 catches, so his touchdowns come in bunches, and our projection prices a quiet night.
Model vs. market: ownership
The field has Williams at 62% and Nix at 49%. Williams is chalk worth eating in a game script this clear. The mistake is Adams: 26.1 ceiling (the best in the pool), Nacua off the field, and 7.4% owned. Waddle is the same story on the other side, with a 22.7 ceiling at 5.9% after his targets rose by seven last week. Evan Engram at 47% for a 5.2-point simulated mean is where the field is overpaying.
At DST, the Rams defense allows -0.166 EPA per dropback and gets 7.2% of the ownership. The Broncos defense has more than three times that (23.8%) against the better offense.
Team context worth carrying
- Los Angeles: the defense has been the best unit on the field (-0.088 EPA per play allowed, Denver’s defense allows +0.155), and the Rams are without Myles Garrett, who is on injured reserve. Nix won’t face much of a pass rush, which is why he stays in the build even though we’re betting on the Rams.
- Denver: Waddle’s snaps fell to 61% last week while his targets rose by seven. Nix is throwing to him more even though he’s on the field less. When Denver falls behind, Waddle is where the ball goes.
See the full showdown analysis. Captain board, every prop against our projection, the optimizer and exposure.
Captain and build
Captain Kyren Williams. It’s not a contrarian captain; it’s the one the game script points to. On ceiling alone, Nix, Adams and Stafford rate slightly ahead, but Williams is the player most likely to be in the end zone when the Rams win the way they’re supposed to. Nix and Adams go in the flex so we still have the game’s two biggest passing-game ceilings, and Waddle covers Denver throwing from behind.
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The bets
- Rams moneyline, -126 (FanDuel; -130 at DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, Hard Rock). 60.4% in our simulations against 55.8% implied. We’re not laying the 2.5: the Rams cover it in almost exactly half the simulations, but they win outright three times in five.
- Matthew Stafford Under 242.5 passing yards, -113 (DraftKings). Our projection is 217, the simulations say 222, and the game script (run first, protect the lead) points the same way.
- Davante Adams Under 5.5 receptions, -102 (FanDuel). Our props model makes it 64%. He averages 4.2 catches in the simulations, and his catch rate with Stafford is 60% because he’s the deep target. This doesn’t cut against the DFS play: he gets paid in yards and touchdowns, not catches.
Captain touchdown: Williams anytime at -105 (Fanatics) is close to fair, and he’s the likeliest scorer in the game. If you want one touchdown bet, make it this one. Dobbins at +160 is the fairly priced option on the Denver side.
Method: model touchdown probability = 1 − e−λ, where λ is projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Game and player simulations use 20,000 runs drawn around the Vegas implied totals. All numbers are from the DailyAmbush showdown ratings, projections and Bureau board as of Sunday morning. Lines move, so check your book before the 8:20 ET kickoff.