August 21st, the day when MLB looks like a damn NFL pre-season slate.  The pitching tonight is an absolute hogwash of journeymen, call-ups and guys who are just trying to somehow keep their MLB careers alive. It’s ugly.   WEATHER Reds at Angels – PPD from lingering Hurricane effects. I see no other issues today   PAUL BLACKBURN DK:  $7000, FD: $7800 KC is hitting very well in August, but anyone who goes into Oakland at a night game gets downgraded quite a bit. CRISTIAN JAVIER DK: $7100, FD: $9400 I liked Ashcraft a good amount before that game was PPD, so Javier slides in as a similarly priced option who should match or even beat Castillo (chalkier/higher rated) tonight.  Boston’s been hitting well and has a couple RHH that give him issues like Justin Turner, but we can search for 6 IP and a good QS none the less from Javier. OTHER PITCHING NOTES Luis Castillo continues to be a much better pitcher at home than on the road (2.70 vs 3.90 ERA difference just for example).  The White Sox are coming out of Coors but that’s not enough for me to pay extra for him tonight.   RANGERS Seager, Garver, Jankowski Corey Seager, the holy spirit himself, is going back home tonight.  Yeah, he’s from North Carolina origionally, but the kid fucking destroyed Chase Field with his time as a Dodger.  Granted, he is destroying every field right now and a little road trip should get Texas going PIRATES / CARDINALS PIT:  Reynolds, Davis, Hayes STL:  Arenado, Edman, Goldschmidt The Cardinals are going to mix Drew Rom and Matthew Liberatore together tonight it sounds like.  Drew Rom is a  lefty pitcher the Cardinals received in the Jack Flaherty deal with Baltimore.  Outside of having decent K% in the minors he hasn’t been very good and I would expect Pittsburgh to hit him tonight — even though they will grade poorly on the model. METS McNeil, Lindor, Nimmo After dealing away their pitching and sending up the white flag, the Mets veterans have finally started to hit.  Warm night in Atlanta should only keep that trend going.   Also Like:   Marlins CATCHER Mitch Garver Martin Maldanado   FIRST BASE Justin Turner Nate Lowe Christian Walker Paul Goldschmidt   SECOND BASE Ha-Seong Kim Jeff McNeil Jose Altuve   THIRD BASE Austin Riley Nolan Arenado Jake Burger   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager […]

No clue why but this has a nostalgic feel for me today.  I think it’s because there are almost no late games so it feels like a throw back to when Sunday MLB DFS was the entire slate of games, yes, I am old. Pitching Openers today Josh Winckowski opening before Nick Pivetta vs NYY Jake Junis opening before Sean Manaea vs ATL Ryan Borsucki opening before Osvaldi Bido vs MIN   WEATHER I see no issues today   MAX SCHERZER DK: $11000, FD: $10900 Historically Max has had problems with the Brewers lineup, but this is a new Max pitching with energy and on an absolute tear in his new uniform down in Texas. LOGAN ALLEN DK: $8800, FD: $9100 Detroit’s hitting just .204 with a 30% strikeout rate against LHP over the last week and Javy Baez just homered yesterday.  He won’t homer again today even though it is Sunday and that’s usually his best day. MAX FRIED DK:  $9900, FD: $9800 From 72 pitches to 79 pitches and then 83 pitches despite allowing 8 hits in his last start.  Max #2 is a little overpriced here because he’s trending towards an 88 or 90 pitch outing with 5 hits allowed and 5 strikeouts, not quite enough to push Scherzer off the top spot but also a limited damage scenario against the Giants. SUNDAY SLEEPER(s) We’re not gonna use any sleepers here today on the pitching front.  The only ‘bad’ pitchers who I could see pitching better than expectations are Dallas Keuchel and Carlos Carrasco, neither of whom I would feel comfortable with using but if you had to pay down it would be Cookies Carrasco because at least he could pull out 5 or 6 strikeouts.  Keuchel’s facing a team struggling with LHP of late, but he just is an innings eater at best for the Twins and hasn’t shown to have anything left in his two spot starts for them. Clarke Schmidt probably has the best ‘arm talent’ of anyone under $8000 on DraftKings who isn’t facing the Atlanta Braves (yes, this is a Jake Junis comment), so I get if you want to justify him, but I would rather trust Matt Ryan with a 28-3 lead than anything associated with the Yankees right now. Among the openers Sean Manaea and Osvaldo Bido are both fairly cheap and can deliver 2x.  Bido is very risky IMO […]

Overview The Cup Series driers get their chance to run Watkins Glen International Sunday in Watkins Glen, New York. “The Glen” is an 11-turn, 3.40-mile road course made of asphalt and concrete. Road courses are their own animal as it may be easier to identify track similarities simply by looking at other road courses and […]

Another College Football season is about to kick off and I felt it was appropriate to put some information out there regarding what I will continue to offer with ‘The Tailgate‘ offering this upcoming season, as well as the Tools, Ratings and Projections we offer here at DailyAmbush. So much attention is given to NFL and […]

So there are now some double headers today due to the Hurricane which is approaching out in California as the Sunday games were moved up to Saturday for double-headers. Rays at Angels (Eflin vs Sandoval) Marlins at Dodgers (Garrett vs Urias) Diamondbacks at Padres (TBD vs Darvish) The second game of each double header is listed on the MAIN slate tonight on DraftKings, while FanDuel has dropped all of them even though the start time is still listed within the window.   WEATHER Lingering rain in Coors Field.   YU DARVISH I can see a theory on them rushing the game along with weather coming in.  It sounds weird to say that in Baseball but some quick AB from the Diamondbacks and this one is a clean 90 pitch 6 inning start for Darvish. FRAMBER VALDEZ He does well vs the Mariners PATRICK SANDOVAL Similar theory with Darvish   GUARDIANS Ramirez, Laureano They’re free and they should hit Matt Manning who is coming off a good start in Boston, but prior to that this season had really struggled. GIANTS Wade, Pederson, Conforto Definitely a Joc revenge HR game tonight. PIRATES Suwinski, Reynolds, Davis   CATCHER Endy Rodriguez Sean Murphy Patrick Bailey   FIRST BASE Andrew Vaughn LaMonte Wade Jr Ryan Mountcastle   SECOND BASE Zack Gelof Jose Altuve Edouard Julien   THIRD BASE KeBryan Hayes Jose Ramirez Austin Riley   SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor Gabriel Arias Jeremy Pena   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Joc Pederson Yordan Alvarez Jack Suwinski Bryan Reynolds   Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club  

The Tigers and Guardians game which was on the MAIN slate has been moved off as they’re now playing a double-header.  This has given us a 2 game Early slate to pair those knuckleheads with the Royals and Cubs from Wrigleyville on a Friday Afternoon in August Baby!   WEATHER No issues   PABLO LOPEZ Do I wanna use Pirates?  Yeah, kinda.  Am I crazy?  Yeah, kinda.  Lopez probably gets near the top in ownership tonight around 20-30%, he should have a 30% strikeout night and the Twins trust him to give them 6+ IP as well. KYLE GIBSON Gibson in a huge park is where he thrives.  He should go into the Coliseum tonight, get some grounders, get some long fly ball outs and get through 7 innings after a bad last start. SANDY ALCANTARA Sandy is back, not quite to the dominant 2023 level, but back as a very reliable option.  Obviously last start was against the lowly Yankee lineup and he did throw 116 pitches just 6 days ago, so that’s why he ranks third, but a 13-18 DK FPTS return tonight isn’t the worst result and I trust Sandy more than others to not go negative here either. OTHER OPTIONS Spencer Strider:  Dont expect another blow up like that Pirate game two starts back.  He will be fine, but also not a 13K Strider spot IMO. Brandon Pfaadt:  The flashes have shown up for Pfaadt late into his rookie campaign.  Still a good long term pitching option for Arizona, who faces a SD team with holes and thus the ceiling potential is good here. Zack Thompson: Thompson will grade well off his one start returning to the mound on 8/11 vs Kansas City.  He’s not stretched out to go long, so the price is appropriate here, but the Mets aren’t a dominant team vs LHP either.     RED SOX Devers, Story, Duvall, Yoshida, Casas Is tonight the night it all implodes for the Yankees?  Sure does feel like it can’t get much worse, but the Red Sox coming in and dropping a 7 spot in the first five innings might just cause that train to finally go off the tracks. ROCKIES Tovar, McMahon, Jones Kopech and Lambert facing off in Coors.  Just hang them up if the worst walk guy in the game comes into Coors and decides to not walk anyone.  You can’t walk […]

Back to an 8 game main slate tonight.   WEATHER No issues   CLAYTON KERSHAW — DK: $9900, FD: $10,800 Just his second start back from IL stint, so any concerns about the Dodgers keeping him under 80 pitches is valid, but the end line for Clayton should be around 6 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 or 6 K with at most 1 ER allowed.  Very basic and very efficient. MIKE CLEVINGER — DK: $5700 Another cheap option to either pair with Gore or play with the higher $ pitching.  Weather in Wrigley won’t be an issue and the Cubs aren’t smashing RHP much of late.  The Swanson/Bellinger heaters are gone. JON GRAY — DK: $6900, FD: $8600 C’Mon, the Angels aren’t an ELITE offense against RHP.  They’re known to have big strikeout games and Gray’s recent form is back on track.   Why is he $6900? MacKENZIE GORE — DK: $6000, FD: $8200 One of these pitchers in DC is $8200 and the other is $6200 in the Sox/Nats game and they have it all backwards.  It’s Gore who has the strikeout split advantage against the better hitters, it’s Gore who is going to get a higher whiff rate on his breaking pitch and it’s Gore who I will ride and die with at this cheap price.  Unfortunately he allows at least one homer to Trevor Story, possibly two.   RANGERS Semien, Lowe, Garcia, Smith DODGERS Betts, Smith, Martinez ALWAYS BRAVES Olson, Murphy, Acuna You can build Atlanta stacks tonight with Clevinger, Gore and Gray as the primary pitching options.  Granted, the stacks above are kinda pricey too.   CATCHER Will Smith Cal Raleigh Danny Jansen   FIRST BASE Matt Olson Ryan Mountcastle Nathaniel Lowe   SECOND BASE Trevor Story Gleyber Torres Jake Cronenworth   THIRD BASE Eugenio Suarez Maikel Garcia Josh H Smith   SHORTSTOP God’s Second Son Corey Seager Elvis Andrus   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Bryce Harper Mookie Betts Ronald Acuna Jr. Juan Soto   OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Adolis Garcia Teoscar Hernandez Anthony Santander   Trevor Story – 2B – Boston Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies  

Almost everyone is on the MAIN slate tonight, as it brings out a 13 game Tuesday night slate.   WEATHER Boston at Washington – Storms early and lingering showers.  Honestly, if it wasn’t the Nationals I wouldn’t mention it.  They should play just fine.   JACK FLAHERTY — DK: $8400, FD: $9600 Sometimes you cannot talk to people who just do not get things, and that is how I feel when I speak about Adley Rutschman and why he is the real American League MVP. Exhibit #47 – Jack Flaherty.  Amazing!  The guy goes from having zero confidence with the Cardinals, talking batters left and right, not getting through 4 innings cleanly and suddenly with the Orioles he is not walking more than 2 batters per game, striking out well over 1 batter per IP and proving to be one of the best trade deadline acquisitions in recent memory. I wonder why?  Oh yes, maybe because he is finally back with an elite level catcher who improves almost every pitcher that he works with since coming into the Major Leagues.  San Diego is not extremely dangerous, they do not have enough lefties to give Flaherty trouble and I say ride the Jack and Adley train. BOBBY MILLER — DK: $9300 The Brewers have really lowered their strikeout rates recently, but I trust the arm talent here to do decent enough.  Despite having 26 options tonight the way the pricing is on a lot of the top guys I would be comfortable just searching for a 15-16 point outing, that’s Miller at home.   Dont mind, but not gonna expect a massive game … Kyle Hendricks – DK $7400 Jordan Lyles – DK $6500 Bailey Ober – $10,200   PHILLIES Bohm, Castellanos, Realmuto, Turner Yusei Kikuchi, I say BOHM’s away… BRAVES Harris II, Olson, Lopez Death, taxes and the Braves every night, right?  Well, as long as we have MH2 batting 2nd for 4100 and Nicky Lopez going insane at the plate then we can lock and load up on a couple Braves without breaking the bank.  Love Olson tonight as well, but 1B is kinda deep again. NATIONALS Ruiz, Abrams, Dom Smith Insane DC weather tonight for homers.  Prefer the Nationals side for cheaper. TWINS Polanco, Kepler, Lewis, Wallner   CATCHER JT Realmuto Keibert Ruiz Freddy Fermin   FIRST BASE Matt Olson Freddie Freeman Jake Bauers Triston Casas   SECOND […]

An eight game Monday Night slate with games in Coors Field and Truist Park.   WEATHER No issues, all games will play   MAX FRIED The worst part about Fried being injured is that he ruined my Cy Young prediction.  The best part is that we’re getting him for $9400 in mid-August. YU DARVISH Here, I go again, on my own.  Going down the only road I’…  You know the song.  It’s me, it’s Darvish, it won’t end well given our past.  But the Orioles should chase enough to give him a 6+ strikeout spot.  For $8700, I’ll bite.   Just missed the cut Logan Gilbert Miles Mikolas   DIAMONDBACKS Carroll, Marte, Gurriel, Walker We all did this cool thing as a kid.  You would take a soda (it’s not Pop, if you call it Pop, you are a ‘tard) and we would take some candy, like sweet-tarts and drop them into the soda and then watch it EXPLODE. That’s Chris Flexen in Coors against the Diamondbacks.  Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. CARDINALS Goldschmidt, Arenado, O’Neill   Also Do Not Mind Padres (Soto) Braves (Riley)   CATCHER Endy Rodriguez William Contreras Rene Pinto – Punt/value   FIRST BASE Paul Goldschmidt Christian Walker   SECOND BASE Josh Rojas Brendan Rodgers Michael Massey   THIRD BASE Manny Machado Nolan Arenado Austin Riley   SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor Ezequiel Tovar   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Corbin Carroll Juan Soto Jack Suwinski Nolan Jones   OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Ronald Acuna Jr. Bryan Reynolds Tyler O’Neill   Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets Juan Soto – OF – Padres Capt Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates Lourdes Gurriel Jr – OF – Diamondbacks  

WEATHER All games will play   GERRIT COLE I don’t mind Zach Eflin and Dylan Cease as well today, but paying an extra salary for Cole is probably smart for his strikeout difference. DYLAN CEASE Cease vs non divisional teams.  He should have a 2.5x return on DK   Sunday Sleepers TREVOR WILLIAMS Mr. Sunday sleeper himself.  Yeah, Oakland is a value spot, no big deal, 6 IP of clean pitching from T-Will.   CUBS / BLUE JAYS TOR:  Merrifield, Guerrero CHC:  Swanson, Suzuki, Candelario Both SP should get hit, although Ryu is likely to pitch well again.  I almost consider him a sleeper but the Cubs are destroying LHP right now and that’s just too much to get through. REDS De La Cruz, Encarnacion-Strand, Newman Happy Kevin Newman Sunday revenge?  Some good value with him and CES.   CATCHER Keibert Ruiz JT Realmuto Danny Jansen   FIRST BASE Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Joey Meneses   SECOND BASE Strong position today. Jorge Polanco Jose Altuve Whit Merrifield Kevin Newman   THIRD BASE KeBryan Hayes Christopher Morel Alex Bregman   SHORTSTOP Elly De La Cruz Dansby Swanson Willy Adames   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Seiya Suzuki Lane Thomas Andrew McCutchen Kyle Schwarber   OUTFIELD – Tier 2 Whit Merrifield Yordan Alvarez Eloy Jimenez   Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs Kyle Schwarber – OF  – Phillies Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins