The Dongers Club – August 20th

WEATHER All green lights. Wrigley has 10 mph in from left   NOAH CAMERON (DK: $9000, FD: $9300) … Weak Opponent YUSEI KIKUCHI (DK: $8500, FD: $9600) … K Upside DREW RASMUSSEN (DK: $8100, FD: $9200) … Contrarian and cheap   ATHLETICS I am back on the Athletics tonight.  The bigger upside with Ober is the HR rate can explode when he is off & the way the Athletics have hard contact guys at the top of the order they’re a nice YRFI play as well. DODGERS Tanner Gordon is just a trainwreck.  Freeman/Conforto probably the two who logically stand out but in Coors you play the salary game, which means happy Miguel Rojas 3-5 with 4 RBI night! ANGELS Zach Neto, Mike Trout, Yoan Moncada Trout is going to send one into the rocks.   CATCHER Will Smith Shea Langeliers Hunter Fedducia   FIRST BASE Nick Kurtz Freddie Freeman Vinnie Pasquantino   SECOND BASE Miguel Rojas Brice Turang Ozzie Albies   THIRD BASE Miguel Vargas Yoan Moncada Maikel Garcia   SHORTSTOP Zach Neto Brooks Lee Darell Hernaiz   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Mike Trout Kody Clemens Michael Conforto Brent Rooker / Tyler Soderstrom / Lawrence Butler       Mike Trout – OF – LA Angels – Chairman of The Dongers Club Michael Conforto – OF – LA Dodgers Nick Kurtz – 1B – Athletics BETS Yankees/Rays UNDER 8.5 Athletics/Twins OVER 9 Angels ML

The Dongers Club – August 19th

Ten game slate tonight although dropped the Brewers/Cubs second game for absolutely no good reason at all.  Yesterdays PPD shouldn’t have bumped tonight.   WEATHER Should be clear of any PPD   It’s big RHP night tonight folks.  There are three options all in the pay up range on DraftKings but not too heavy that you cannot just get two of them and move on. BRANDON WOODRUFF (DK: $10,500, FD: N/A) … Given how the Cubs have looked and have jumped out early in G1, I say we go opposite with confidence and Woodruff is not only the best pitcher on this slate of late but likely the most reliable one tonight too. HUNTER GREENE (DK: $9000, FD: $9900) NICK PIVETTA (DK: $9500, FD: $9700)   CHEAPER OPTIONS Both Bryce Elder and Shane Smith could draw some eyeballs for cheaper SP2 options, but the ball will carry once again in Atlanta, so IMO I wouldn’t go here with the quality pay up options above.   No one team really stounds out above the crowd tonight, so I would optimize based on the top positional plays – but these are the ones which have the heaviest “go over” spot on them today — with an emphasis being put on some road teams. Guardians Red Sox White Sox   Contrarian Spot Athletics:  Kurtz/Rooker Reds:  Mr. Lux in Anaheim is a thing, ride it.   CATCHER Adley Rutschman Carlos Narvaez Shea Langeliers   FIRST BASE Nick Kurtz Matt Olson Vinnie Pasquantino   SECOND BASE Gavin Lux Lenyn Sosa Luke Keaschall Brayan Rocchio   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez Ke’Bryan Hayes Manny Machado   SHORTSTOP Brooks Lee Mookie Betts Colson Montgomery   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Roman Anthony Mickey Moniak Marcell Ozuna Brent Rooker   Nick Kurtz – 1B – Athletics – Chairman of The Dongers Club Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians Colson Montgomery – SS – White SOx Mickey Moniak – OF – Rockies Roman Anthony – OF – Red Sox Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics Carlos Narvaez – C – Red Sox Gavin Lux – 2B – Reds BONUS … Shohei Ohtani – Dodgers   BETS Milwaukee ML Boston Red Sox ML Yankees ML Rangers / Royals UNDER 8.5

The Dongers Club – August 18th

Pretty good sized Monday night slate with 4 games on the Turbo slate and of course we had a day game today as the Brewers & Cubs are playing two today & 5 total games this week at 1060 West Addison St.   WEATHER Brewers at Cubs:  They could have rain tonight but with it being the second game of the DH and 3 more this week I would assume they try to go ahead and get it in if they start — which they will.   BRADY SINGER (DK: $8000, FD: $9200) With the exception of last year, Brady Singer has excelled in August and seems to be doing it once again.  He has dominated the Rockies, Rays, Braves and Phillies around one bad start vs the Nationals over hist last 5 with a 12.7% Swinging Strike Rate & overall around 25-30% CSW in that span too.  RHH carry only a .352 xSLG which is the core of the Angels lineup. ROBBIE RAY (DK: $9700, FD: $9500) One should not expect a ‘win’ from Ray, but the Giants/Padres game is one that I expect to go under today.  These two teams just met last week & Ray wasn’t great at home vs San Diego – the second time through we go opposite, so I trust him today. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Say what you want about opponents, but Strider for 10k is just pure comedy.  I can understand that most will finally realize to not touch him but there’s also a TON of NFL people coming out now to try and figure out MLB before NFL season begins & they’ll see “White Sox” and immediately think – hey, lets use this guy here I have heard of him.  Dont.  I don’t think he’s gonna suck, but you aren’t getting a 30 spot out of Strider and the only 20 you might get could have a – in front of it.   BRAVES Acuna, Albies, Harris Really hard to trust them – I know.  Acuna back at home should have a good series + Michael Harris has been really consistent of late.  Yoendrys Gomez will be given the chance to start, and his fastball velocity isn’t really much of anything.  Ozzie Albies is very cheap as well here, so no issues with salary/stack construction throughout too ORIOLES Holliday, Cowser, Basallo A massive cool down across the east coast will have an […]

Sunday Dongers Club – August 17th

So it just dawned on me that this is possibly the last Sunday Dongers Club for the season.  What?  Yes, I have more travel coming up and then NFL begins.  I guess technically we could get one before Labor Day but not likely. FanDuel has once again included the Coors game, while DraftKings leaves it off (thankfully). WEATHER Brewers at Reds:  Late rain – game will play Tigers at Twins:   Light rain early then heavier late.  They will likely try to get this in and should be able too GARRETT CROCHET (DK: $11,100, FD: $10,800) We’re definitely more likely to win today with contrarian hitting than going contrarian on Crochet.  Easy bounce back spot to by far be the top scoring SP today.  Miami is better in splits vs lefties but this is clearly a “talent” over splits play. RYAN BERGERT (DK: $7200, FD: $7500) Bergert will get his chance to be the next Royals pitcher who comes into Kauffman Stadium and pitches great at home.  He’s been good for hte Royals since coming over from San Diego, should get into the 5th inning+ and guys like Vargas, Montgomery and Robert have really cooled off for Chicago. THE SUNDAY SLEEPER LOGAN ALLEN (DK: $7500, FD: $7700) … Hey look – the Braves just went OFF on a Saturday night.  No shot of them being any use today.   RANGERS:   I did say go contrarian on the batting today instead of the hitting, did I not?.  Corey Seager, Rowdy Tellez, Evan Carter all stand out versus Berrios. GUARDIANS:  Definitely will go back to Cleveland ML today and in DFS I would be tempted to just roll out Manzardo/Ramirez/Kwan   CATCHER Carlos Narvaez Alejandro Kirk Sean Murphy:  The one concern I have with Allen   FIRST BASE Ryan Mountcastle Kyle Manzardo Rowdy Tellez   SECOND BASE Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jackson Holliday Andres Gimenez   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez Caleb Durbin Josh H Smith   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Gunnar Henderson Javy Baez   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Giancarlo Stanton Evan Carter Jarren Duran Steven Kwan   OUTFIELD – Tier 2 / Value Masataka Yoshida Jesus Sanchez Matt Wallner   Corey Seager – SS – Texas Rangers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians Ryan Mountcastle – 1B – Orioles Evan Carter – OF – Rangers Jarren Duran – OF – Red Sox Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees […]

The Dongers Club – August 16th

WEATHER All clear tonight and a few warm spots besides the warm situation out in Coors Field too. SONNY GRAY (DK: $9500, FD: $9300) … Sonny is pitching well again and I have to trust him more than Fried, which pains me to say as a Fried guy.  Obviously Max is always capable of getting back on track and the last start vs a RH heavy Astros lineup — but Gray is at home & the Yankees aren’t hitting RHP with consistency of late. CASEY MIZE (DK: $8900, FD: $9000)  … I don’t care much who you use with Mize, but he is the SP2 with the Twins being totally asleep.  This one should be the chalky easy pick today. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS After a wild early run onslaught between the Rays and Giants now you get Houser and Verlander.  I am telling you  now.  You can’t stomach either – but this game is gonna be 1-1 after 6 innings. No thanks on Cease/Snell in a divisional game.   GUARDIANS … Martinez, Ramirez, Fry Gut feel call is that the Guardians NUKE Atlanta with 10+ runs tonight which means the cheap Fry and Martinez combination is going to win someone big if I am right. DIAMONDBACKS … Marte, Perdomo, Carroll The obvious spot is going to Coors, I wouldn’t play more than 2 guys here though because we have good offensive spots elsewhere too. ANGELS … Schanuel, Trout, Moncada OTHER SPOTS I LIKE White Sox / Royals:  Montgomery, Sosa — Pasquantino, Witt.  Love Witt and Vinnie. One off studs from Padres and Dodgers   CATCHER Adrian Del Castillo David Fry Drake Baldwin   FIRST BASE Ryan Mountcastle Vinnie Pasquantino Matt Olson   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Bryan Rocchio Jackson Holliday   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez Manny Machado Yoan Moncada   SHORTSTOP Bobby Witt Jr. Colson Montgomery Geraldo Perdomo   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Angel Martinez Mike Trout Brent Rooker Corbin Carroll   Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club Mike Trout – OF – Angels Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics Drake Baldwin – C – Braves Ryan Mountcastle – 1B – Orioles Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians Ketel Marte – 2B – Diamondbacks Angel Martinez – OF – Guardians BONUS …. Fernando Tatis Jr – OF – Padres

The Dongers Club – August 15th

WEATHER No issues Dear Lord it’s awful tonight.  As we go through the options to consider it leads us to possibly tempting fate with both Yusei Kikuchi and Luis Castillo and there is no way I want either one when they blow up in the 4th or 5th innings. LANDEN ROUPP (DK: $7600, FD: $8200) Roupp and his opponent Boyle both have limited risk outside of Boyle not going deep into games.  So we trust Roupp at home in his pitcher friendly park against the Rays — who are used to hitting in good parks this year and will try to hit too many fly ball outs tonight. JACOB DEGROM (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.4k) On a slate with limited options you should always just trust the skill.  I think some will use Bassitt vs the Rangers bats & I won’t argue with it but they should roll out 5+ lefties all with power potential and thats too concerning for me. NOAH CAMERON (DK: $9300, FD: $9200) Price is way too high for Cameron, but he is pitching well & the Royals pitchers are always better at home. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Framber Valdez:  Struggled big time in last two starts and that’s always a concern with Framber because he might have found a muscle to pull in that fat body and everything is now off. Hurston Waldrep is tempting to consider at his low price on a slate with terrible options but Cleveland’s back to being good again. Castillo & Manaea:  Two guys that will get you between 8 and 12.  With the chance that there is a – in front of both numbers.   MARLINS vs RED SOX Funny how Alcantara was lights out before the trade deadline and then has immediately been back to getting torched post the deadline when he was not moved. Both sides in this game should be looked at, and if we don’t have 17+ runs in it I would be disappointed. ANGELS vs ATHLETICS Much like the Marlins/Red Sox — this one is a disappointment without the over hitting.  A nice sneaky play on the ANgels side is Bryce Teodosio, he will get on, steal and score when Neto/Schanuel drive him home. YANKEES Stanton, Rice, Grisham, Judge SECONDARY SPOTS TIGERS:  Offense has been really stagnant but K-Carp and Tork are both ideal plays today ROYALS:  Yastrzemski, Pasquantino, Salvy PADRES/DODGERS:  Oh, there’s gonna be fireworks […]

The Dongers Club – August 14th

WEATHER Phillies @ Nationals (6:45 PM): Possible rain delays – monitor closer to game time Braves @ Mets (7:10 PM): Rain moving in around first pitch – likely late start but will play clean Diamondbacks @ Rockies (8:40 PM): Clear skies in Denver – perfect Coors conditions   Jesus Luzardo (PHI) – $8,400 DK / $10,100 FD The clear ace play tonight. Luzardo has elite strikeout upside against a weak Nationals lineup that strikes out 26-27% vs both sides. Washington’s offense has been anemic (.228 avg vs RHP, 7 HRs in 10 days). His splits show dominance vs lefties (.200 avg, 40% K rate, 0.0% HR rate). The Phillies are massive -215 favorites, giving him great win equity. Only concern is his 9.6% walk rate vs righties, but the upside far outweighs the risk. Edward Cabrera (MIA) – $8,700 DK / $8,900 FD Solid GPP pivot with strikeout upside (25%+ K rates vs both sides). Cleveland’s offense has been inconsistent (.262 avg vs RHP but only 8 HRs in 10 days). His recent form is encouraging (36.2% CSW vs NYY, 27.70 DK points). The Guardians can be exploited by quality arms, and Cabrera’s changeup/curveball combo should play well. Kodai Senga (NYM) – $8,900 DK / $8,200 FD Bounce-back spot for the talented righty. Atlanta’s offense has power but also strikes out (20-29% K rates). His splitter can be devastating when working, and the Mets are solid home favorites. Risk/reward play given his recent struggles, but the talent is undeniable.   ROCKIES Coors Field + terrible lefty = offensive explosion. Rodriguez has been brutal (5 ER in his last Coors start, .590 SLG vs lefties). The 12.0 O/U screams offense. Primary: Ezequiel Tovar ($3,700), Hunter Goodman ($5,000), Jordan Beck ($4,200) Leverage: Brenton Doyle ($3,500), Kyle Farmer ($3,400) PHILLIES Elite offense against a vulnerable pitcher. Lord allows .374 SLG to lefties, and Philly’s left-handed bats should feast. Primary: Kyle Schwarber ($6,000), Bryce Harper ($5,400), Brandon Marsh ($3,000) Leverage: Max Kepler ($3,400), Bryson Stott ($3,700) METS Elder has been getting crushed (.520 SLG vs RHB, 4.5% HR rate). Mets have multiple elite bats ready to capitalize. Francisco Lindor ($5,500), Pete Alonso ($5,500), Juan Soto ($5,800) Brandon Nimmo ($4,700), Jeff McNeil ($2,900)     CATCHER Hunter Goodman Agustin Ramirez Riley Adams   FIRST BASE Pete Alonso Matt Olson Kyle Manzardo   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Francisco Lindor Gleyber Torres   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez […]

The Dongers Club – August 13th – MAIN

Tonights article has been generated with AI while using data from the DailyAmbush Dashboard(s). Enjoy! WEATHER All clear Hunter Brown (HOU) – $10,000 DK / $10,300 FD The ace play of the slate, Brown’s been dealing all season and gets a Red Sox offense that’s been inconsistent. His splits are dominant – righties are hitting just .205 with a 1.8% HR rate against him, while lefties aren’t much better at .184. Coming off a quality start against Boston just two weeks ago, he knows this lineup well. Kevin Gausman (TOR) – $8,800 DK / $9,700 FD Gausman’s splitter has been nasty, and he gets a Cubs lineup that’s shown vulnerability to quality arms. He’s particularly tough on lefties (.184 AVG, 3.8% HR rate), and the Cubs have several key lefty bats. His recent form has been solid with multiple quality outings. Joe Ryan (MIN) – $9,600 DK / $10,000 FD Ryan’s extreme splits make him interesting – righties are hitting just .175 with a 2.6% HR rate against him. The Yankees have plenty of righty power, but they also strike out plenty, giving Ryan solid upside despite the tough matchup.   New York Mets vs Carlos Carrasco This is the slam dunk stack of the slate. Carrasco has been getting absolutely torched by righties (.642 SLG, 7.5% HR rate) while being merely bad against lefties. The Mets have elite righties in Alonso and Alvarez, plus switch-hitters like Lindor and stellar lefties like Soto. Tampa Bay Rays vs JT Ginn Ginn’s splits are cartoonish – lefties are hitting .605 SLG with a 7.9% HR rate against him. The Rays have Brandon Lowe (93.6 HR rating!), Josh Lowe, and several other lefties who can absolutely feast in this spot. Toronto Blue Jays vs Cade Horton Horton’s been solid lately but his splits favor righties over lefties. The Blue Jays have some sneaky power with Vlad Jr always dangerous, Daulton Varsho red hot with 19 FPTS in his last 3, and that 61.4 HR rating looking tasty against a young arm.     CATCHER Will Smith Francisco Alvarez Sean Murphy   FIRST BASE Pete Alonso Nick Kutz Vlad Guerrero Jr   SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Jazz Chisholm Jr Brandon Lowe   THIRD BASE Junior Caminero Yoan Moncada Alex Bregman   SHORTSTOP Francisco Lindor Zach Neto Bo Bichette   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Juan Soto Tyler Soderstrom Matt Wallner Daulton Varsho   OUTFIELD – […]

The Dongers Club – August 13th – Early

The night slate tonight is a mix between FanDuel having a good main slate and DraftKings going with the old FanDuel model of a million slates.  This makes the early mid-week Baseball slate today an ideal one to dabble in. WEATHER All clear Woodruff is the clear #1 today and with McGreevy getting a cheap price vs Colorado outside of Coors I think that’ll be the logical 1-2 combination which most roll with.  Lugo is option 2b behind McGreevy or as a pivot off Woodruff, but don’t expect Woody to not be at the same level as Lugo when it’s all said and done. Brandon Woodruff (DK: $10,500, FD: $10,900) Michael McGreevy (DK: $6000, FD: $7000) Seth Lugo (DK: $8500, FD: $7900)   BREWERS:  Yelich, Vaughn, Durbin The Brew-Crew Machine is just too strong right now and a pitcher who has historically had trouble at times with walks against this hot of a lineup is too hard to ignore — especially since the DK pricing algo is in sleep mode and Andrew MVP Vaughn is basically free. DIAMONDBACKS Facing their former SP, expect Ketel Marte to enjoy this match-up. TIGERS Weather is alright here.  The Tigers side is tempting as Smith has proven that LHH are going to always be an issue for him and Greene/Carpenter/Keith could do heavy damage.   CATCHER Whoever catches for the Diamondbacks Pedro Pages William Contreras   FIRST BASE Andrew Vaughn Vinnie Pasquantino Rowdy Tellez   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Adam Day Game Frazier Brice Turang   THIRD BASE Best position on the slate, love everyone here. Caleb Durbin Maikel Garcia Colt Keith   SHORTSTOP Colson Montgomery Joey Ortiz Zach McKinstry   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Riley Greene Kerry Carpenter Christian Yelich Corbin Carroll   Riley Greene – OF – Detroit Tigers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Maikel Franco – 3B – Royals Andrew Vaughn – 1B – Brewers Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers Corbin Carroll – OF – Diamondbacks BETS Nationals/Royals UNDER 9 Brewers + Cardinals ML Parlay Diamondbacks ML

The Dongers Club – August 12th

Back in a spot where I am able to give full attention for detailed write-ups and I also tweaked the algo on the model last night as well to account for more ‘August’ time of year analytics. WEATHER Could see a pop up storm in Chicago or St. Louis.  All games should finish. FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $10,000, FD: $10,300) The only negatives on Peralta is that he will carry heavy ownership on a big slate & he is consistently finding a way to give up a HR each start (Reynolds feels like the play today).  But the positive is that he gets to face Tommy Pham, although Pham is definitely itching to start some bullshit fight in this series and we just need him to not get Peralta ejected.  The path to 20 FPTS here on DK with a slate full of not so sexy options is extremely hard to ignore. MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $8200, FD: $9300) Ignoring that the Nationals are better vs RHP and hit Change-Ups okay, I believe in Wacha and especially at home.  He won’t walk batters & should be able to get through a lineup that hasn’t been very good in the second half. JACK FLAHERTY (DK: $9200, FD: $9600) Cant use Skenes at 11k vs the Brewers IMO, and you can’t trust Ray, Strider very much either – although Ray is slightly tempting and the Mets are so much of a mess Strider might no hit them for 4 innings, but the mess isn’t necessarily their offense, so we go to Flaherty if the weather looks alright in Chicago.   TIER 1 CUBS … The Cubs have been bottom 10% since mid to late July.  Their ownership drops off big time and we’re going to see them Ambush Berrios.  Gotta have Busch, Tucker and Suzuki ASTROS … Sanchez, Walker, Pena BLUE JAYS … Not to be overlooked in this game. TIER 2 RED SOX … Picking on Spencer Arrighetti making his Majors return tonight is a good strategy. ATHLETICS … Kurtz, Soderstrom, Butler   CATCHER Carson Kelly Will Smith Salvador Perez   FIRST BASE Michael Busch Yandy Diaz Nick Kurtz Christian Walker   SECOND BASE Marcus Semien Christian Moore Jeff McNeil   THIRD BASE Royce Lewis … Getting near the point where Royce Lewis has monster numbers for 2-3 weeks just to tempt everyone on him next March. Matt Shaw Josh H Smith   […]