Happy Masters Sunday to all! MLB is a game of streaks and trends.  By nature of how the sport is played it is the most “trendy” sport from one week to the next.  Remember Torpedo Bats?  Yeah, things come and go very quickly in this sport but when they are present they feel like they are never going to leave.  For DFS and betting purposes we have to ride these trends and these streaks as some of them do hang around for what feels like an entire month or sometimes an entire year.  A player owning a team for a season (Adley vs Jays, take notes) – or certain teams or players doing well on weekends or a specific day.  It happens, the history and the data proves that riding trends and streaks is important in Baseball. One of the ways to ride trends is from series to series.  The Mon-Thu stretch plays one way and then the Fri-Sun plays another.  In the case of DFS the early week process had a ton of stacks with one offs being the build while this weekend has been all about the one off hitters spread around as guys who are “due” get theirs.  Keep that in mind when building your lineups today. WEATHER All clear   It really feels like all my favorite pitchers going today, can we somehow get these guys spread out please? CHRIS SALE (DK: $9000, FD: $9500) This is a big test for if Sale can have another great season this year.  He has historically always dominated the Rays, although many of that comes in the Tropicana COSTCO lanes and now he has to deal with the warm outdoors instead.  That aside, this is the time he has to get it figured out — the CSW% rate was good last start, he just got hit too much — which I don’t trust happening today.  His bigger concern is getting enough run support early from the Braves cold hitters who finally woke up late yesterday.  Well, all but one guy in particular who I’m expecting to do so today.  5-2 Braves win. MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8100, FD: $9200) Easy button?  Do you want me just to fill this space with random stats about the Marlins or do you want some random weird theory about Sundays in Miami, or do you want a random trivia question for the day?  You […]

WEATHER All Clear   KUMAR ROCKER (DK: $8000, FD: $7500) CORBIN BURNES (DK: $10k, FD: $10k)     ASTROS … First time all season they will draw a LHP, and its one who is slightly reverse splits.  Doesn’t matter, Yordan will homer … Maybe thrice… PIRATES/REDS … Dueling Andrews.  Dueling lefties.  Gimme the over.   CATCHER Joey Bart Gabriel Moreno Jonah Heim   FIRST BASE Spencer Steer Christian Walker Josh Naylor   SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Jose Iglesias   THIRD BASE KeBryan Hayes Isaac Parades Manny Machado   SHORTSTOP Elly De La Cruz Jeremy Pena Corey Seager   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Yordan Alvarez Mike Trout Corbin Carroll Thomas Pham   OUTFIELD – Tier II Bryan Reynolds Andrew McCutchen Jason Heyward   Yordan Alvarez – OF – Houston Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club   TOP BETS Pirates/Reds OVER 8.5

So here is the good news for me.  We have Saturday Sycnrhonicity between the two sites.  Bad news, they let FanDuel take the wheel and we have two early slates today. I will not be touching the “Early” three game slate, but we’ll look at this Afternoon 5 gamer and then the 6 game night slate.  Might be a nice quiet weekend overall. WEATHER Looks clear for all five games to play.   SANDY ALCANTARA (DK: $9100, FD: $9100) First start after birth of child.  Well rested and no CJ Abrams.  Clearly the best option on this slate in my mind even with the not heavy strikeout vs RHP Nationals on the card. After Sandy nobody is free and clear of either not being a giant waste of space or having a tough draw.  So really it’s a matter of checking for who can get us enough strikeouts TREVOR WILLIAMS (DK: $6800, FD: $7100) Lee Corso put it best once ….   Next Best Option Building a lineup for the 7PM slate instead…. ONE OFFS Love this Mt. Rushmore of one offs today Santander – TOR Story – BOS Robert – CWS Riley – ATL BRAVES & RAYS This park is going to play GREAT in day games.  Unfortunately you have decent pitchers going today, however AJ Smith-Shawver is the weaker of the two and should allow some yard contact to the Rays bats. BOSTON RED SOX Boston is ice cold — buy low here if people are silly and getting shy that Martin Perez is pitching a third straight gem.  He isn’t.   CATCHER Adley is the top play here, but after him the next best play is just not paying for anyone, as the rest are just likely get you a 2. Adley Rutschman Liam Hicks   FIRST BASE Pete Alonso Vlad Guerrero Jr. Yandy Diaz   SECOND BASE Otto Lopez Andres Gimenez Kristian Campbell   THIRD BASE Austin Riley … The heat is on with Riley Miguel Vargas Alex Bregman   SHORTSTOP Trevor Story   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Anthony San-tan-der she goes…. Michael Harris II Brent Rooker Luis Robert Jr.   Anthony Santander – OF – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club Trevor Story – SS – Red Sox Austin Riley – 3B – Braves Luis Robert Jr – OF – White Sox Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics   2PM WINDOW GAME […]

Soon my friends.  Soon.  Very soon you will wake up on a Friday Morning and realize that there is a 2:20 PM EST game in Wrigley Field and then nothing until the evening — the perfect Friday scenario.  But for now we relax with a short Turbo slate that removes the Pirates/Reds potentially brawling and the Royals/Guardians in Cleveland. WEATHER Not great in these two spots tonight.  The Jays/Orioles one definitely could be an early PPD spot given the divisional ability to play two later in the season. Giants at Yankees:  I expect this one to play, but won’t be using much from it in DFS Blue Jays at Orioles:   I expect this one to PPD, if it looks clear then consider Vlad/Santander for Toronto   JACOB DEGROM (DK: $9500, FD: $9900) As good as any shot at deGrom having one of those throw back moments tonight where he is whiffing everything that comes before him.  Not enough though to justify making him the definitive #1 overall but I believe we get really good deGrom for 4+ innings tonight and that means 8+ strikeouts. REESE OLSON (DK: $7100, FD: $8800) Expect great run support for Reese today, who has done pretty well against the projected Twins lineup in the past.  This is favorite SP2 overall. NICK PIVETTA (DK: $9100, FD: $9300) Yeah, hard to ignore Pivetta drawing the Rockies at home.  He’s not someone to consistently expect to produce value at 9k, but in PETCO at night vs the Rockies he should thrive.  That said, Ryan McMahon is showing some signs of life and is a great leverage play against Pivetta if you fade him.  I think he hits a solo HR top first & then Pivetta will settle in to go 6 strong. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS MITCHELL PARKER (DK: $7900, FD: $9600) … One of my sleeper arms this season is off to a great start against two quality opponents and now gets the Marlins?  Definitely a let down opportunity for him and he should see a ton of RHH which I think reduces his go off potential today.  That said, the price is cheap, the Marlins are the Marlins and he’s pitching really well thus far — although the walks are concerning. Nobody else is on my radar…   METS Lindor, Alonso, Vientos, Marte Next up to beat up on the Athletics pitching is Lindor, Soto and Alonso.  What […]

Since this is a short five game slate we can go through each game to label them quickly. Angels at Rays:  Day game down in Tampa should in theory produce good hitting conditions & both teams are showing some power — especially the Angels side. Sox at Guardians:  Hard to imagine we get anything but another low scoring game Twins at Royals:  Warmer in KC today.  Tough spot for both pitchers, I like some offense here. Brewers at Rockies:   Rockies win?  Maybe?  One time? Jays at Red Sox:  Boston bats are ice cold.  Due to wake up. WEATHER Combination of slight rain and bad Baseball in Cleveland, otherwise all games are good to go.   These two guys are WAY above the field IMO.  Not sure how many will trust Buehler as he has been iffy in his first two starts, but the Jays aren’t winning today and it’s because of him. Gavin Williams should be 70-80%.  He will dominate the bad White Sox. Gavin Williams (DK: $8200, FD: $8400) Walker Buehler (DK: $7500, FD: $7800)   RED SOX The lefites vs Bassitt is the obvious play here.  I would think Boston has to salvage a game and get their offense going although it could wind up being a 4-0 type game where Buehler shoves.  Casas/Duran the key bats. ROCKIES Honestly, decent value here with Goodman, Veen.  Get away game out of Coors, so Milwaukee might throw it in if they fall behind early. ANGELS/RAYS Absolutely love Trout today.  He missed on a big AB to end the game last night and should make up for it against Littell in the first inning today.   CATCHER Logan O’Hoppe Hunter Goodman … Or anything out of Coors is ideal Salvador Perez   FIRST BASE Triston Casas Vinnie Pasquantino Ty France   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Brice Turang   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Ryan McMahon Maikel Garcia   SHORTSTOP Carlos Correa Bobby Witt Jr.   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Mike Trout Jarren Duran Zac Veen Jonathan India   Triston Casas – 1B – Boston Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club Mike Trout – OF – Angels Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies Carlos Correa – SS – Twins   TOP BETS White Sox/Guardians UNDER 7 Boston ML Twins/Royals OVER 8

Consider this a quick cheat sheet for the late slate degens (hey, thats me too) WEATHER All clear YUSEI KIKUCHI There are growing concerns about the lack of lighting at the Rays new Stadium.  The Senior Citizens down there clearly do not go out late at night so I guess they just don’t really care about making the field very well lit.  This or the teams there just cannot hit in general.  Either way, it’s time to flip onto this bandwagon before its too late. JOE RYAN / SETH LUGO Ryan is the better of the two tonight, he’ll have 6+ strikeouts vs KC.  But Lugo’s cheap and no Buxton for the Twins helps him out and makes him a fine pick as well with just wanting to heavy stack a team and not worry about salary elsewhere.   ROCKIES … Short slate and Coors.  Really gotta think the Rockies get he better of the Brewers starting Tyler Alexander.  Doyle is a must, so too is Goodman.  I would like to see Veen get another start tonight but LvL he might not. PHILLIES … Too much HR upside on them and the Braves.  If you want a SGP, it’s Schwarber and Riley to homer.   CATCHER Hunter Goodman Alejandro Kirk   FIRST BASE Harper, Bryce Michael Toglia   SECOND BASE Brice Turang Alex Bregman   THIRD BASE Austin Riley   SHORTSTOP Carlos Correa Ezequiel Tovar   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Brenton Doyle Jorge Soler Max Kepler Kyle Schwarber   Jorge Soler – OF – LA Angels – Chairman of The Dongers Club Austin Riley – 3B – Braves Bryce Harper – 1B – Phillies Hunter Goodman – C – Rockies   TOP BETS Rockies ML + Phillies ML + Twins ML + Angels ML + Red Sox ML Yolo Parlay  

There are a bunch of hitters banged up today so double check the lineups on who is in. WEATHER All games should be good to go with the roof being CLOSED in Arizona.  The only possible delay is Texas at Chicago.   This is one of those choose your fighter Mortal Kombat pitching slates in my mind.  What I define that as is one where you can really pick from 6-8 guys but likely going off the chalky ones is where you will find a winning pick. TYLOR MEGILL (DK: $8700)  … So of course the first guy I mention is likely the chalkiest of them all, but it has to be said.  Anytime we get the Marlins on a Main slate with a pitcher that has a pulse we give it consideration.  The Marlins managed to get some big hits yesterday but I don’t think it’s sustainable & Megill has been doing well in two brief starts against much better lineups. JACK FLAHERTY (DK: $8500) … The Yankees are not hitting good Fastballs very well.  Shit, they didn’t hit anything yesterday & I would argue they always struggle in Detroit it seems.  This is probably a spot where Flaherty should be 20%+ owned but may be less because of Max Fried on the other side & I don’t use him until after April 15th at the earliest.  Rules are rules… OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS My Sleeper?  Brandon Pfaadt.  He’s struggled vs LHH and the Orioles lefties are their better bats right now, but gut says he pitches 7 strong innings today. Shota is gonna Shota.  Not many strikeouts.   ATHLETICS Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom We would be very stubourn if we just decided to not admit that this park is playing fantastic for offense.  A good deal of this is the Oakland pitching staff not being as good as people wanted them to be, but today we can pick on both sides and maybe the Athletics can make it two in a row in their new temporary stadium. DODGERS / NATS James Wood — Michael Conforto, Max Muncy Can the Nationals take another from the Dodgers and sweep the series?  Absolutely they can.  Will they?  Okay, maybe not, but we get the Nationals who are a REALLY good DFS lineup once again against a RHH and finally on a main slate.  Ride the Wood heater who is criminally mis-priced.  […]

THE MASTERS Welcome to the first Major!  Welcome to one of the best tournaments to watch on TV!  Welcome to one of the best fields of the year!  LIV guys are here and several of them are in great form.   This is a week where your lineups will look stacked simply because of the quality […]

The Marlins and Mets game has been moved up to 4PM so it will not be on either sites scoring tonight despite the game originally being in the slate. WEATHER All games should play, but it’s COLD. Literally everywhere except Coors Field.  Even Atlanta is below 50 degrees which is like 28 degrees below their average.  This leaves us with just 3 good hitting spots tonight from a weather standpoint #1.  Chase FIeld (Arirzona) #2.  Coors Field (Colorado) #3.  Del Boca Vista (Tampa)   CHRIS SALE (DK: $9300, FD: $9900) I saw the Wheeler vs Sale matchup and kinda just wanted to move along and not pay those prices in early April.  The next game down the list was Corbin vs Taillon, so yeah, I turned the fucking car around and drove right back to this game. Then we got the news that Sean Murphy is back.  Last season with Atlanta, Chris Sale was resurgent, and wouldnt you know it, in the 12 starts with Murph catching him he had a 1.68 ERA, versus 2.87 with Chad Tromp and 2.90 with TDA in 14 starts. COLE RAGANS (DK: $8100, FD: $9300) Didn’t take much, but I talked myself into Ragans.  Twins can be bad vs LHP when they dont have HR favorable weather conditions.  Plus he limits the homers quite well. SHANE BAZ (DK: $8600, FD: $9600) Trust the gut or trust the data?  The gut says the Angels will hit 3+ HR tonight, the data says that Baz has them swinging and missing quite a ton.  Which do we get with someone who is probably 3% owned but nobody uses the hitters against him either?  Ward, Soler, O’Hoppe are all the guys he has to get strikeouts against.  Otherwise Nolan Schanuel or Trout will hit 2 or 3 run homers. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Freddy Peralta does the most important thing in Coors – he just blows it by you.  His career history here is good and is worth using. Honestly, we could do many dumber things than using Jameson Taillon against the cold Rangers right now.  He’s not that bad of a play.   D’BACKS Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Pavin Smith, Alek Thomas Like sands through the hourglass, these are the trends of Charlie Morton.  He is good, then bad, then good, then bad, and now its time for a bad spot. RAYS Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero […]

Scheduling pet peeve….  I understand that the Marlins and Mets are going to play multiple times so them playing twice before the middle of April is something we can give a pass on, but the Reds and Giants are starting a series tonight and will be done with each other after the middle of this week.  It’s just unacceptable and a major pet peeve I have with how they do the schedule allocations now.  This isn’t just a one off occurrence either, it’s going to happen a ton and needs to get fixed.   End of rant… WEATHER Could minor spots tonight.  No PPD expected. Rangers at Cubs:  Snow showers during the day.  Temps pushing close to 40.  It should play though. Marlins at Mets:  We could see rain in the Marlins/Mets game at Citi Field tonight and it’s cold there, but they’ll get the game in unless they’re just trying to be like the Nationals.   KODAI SENGA (DK: $9000, FD: $9300) While normally in season we would shy away from using a SP vs the team twice in one week, I don’t have an issue using Senga back at home after he was able to do what he should versus Miami a week ago.  It was a 77 pitch outing through 5 IP with a 32% CSW rate and somehow the Marlins got 2 ER off him.  I don’t see them getting any tonight in NY and he’ll probably get through 6 innings because of that with similar strikeout results. HUNTER GREENE (DK: $7900, FD: $9600) Just two walks over 12 innings when pitching at home is a great sign for Greene.  Now lets go on the road and keep it going in a huge park where he shouldn’t fear the long ball. MICHAEL LORENZEN (DK: $7100) SP2 only for Lorenzen tonight – but his main issue vs RHH the last two years has been when he lets his sinker get torched.  The Twins are not really a RH sinker hitting team, so with chilly Kauffman temps tonight I believe he’ll do just fine. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Michael King is the best option outside of the three above.  Still hesitant with this park in Sacramento though, so we’ll pass for now. Logan Gilbert has too much history with the Astros for me to feel confident here tonight.  I don’t think he’s a bad pick and think he will pitch […]