WEATHER All games good to go tonight, but with a chance for delay in the Jays/Chi-Sox game.   It’s Aces Tuesday and this doesn’t even include some good guys going in the Turbo slate set of games. The pricing tonight on DraftKings, unfortunately is going to lead to some high ownership on a few arms, or so it should.  Combined with a game in Coors and some higher $ DK teams that are my favorites I don’t see going into the Wheeler, Peralta, Ragans bin to pay up tonight when you have plenty of other options who are “mid range” but should be up higher… KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $8500, FD: $10,200) This is the top one and the most important decision you have to make in your lineup(s) tonight.  With Gausman, you’ll likely just be taking the 40%+ chalk and probably in my mind getting a 25+ DK FPTS output as he should grind through the White Sox lineup without many bumps and finish with 8-10 strikeouts, upside into the 30’s and maybe even a fuck you game where he drops a 40.  Fade him and pray he gets blown up early like it’s a Sunday afternoon, which it is not.  So, uh, yeah, we’re not fading it. MAX FRIED (DK: $8800, FD: $9800) Next up, the lefty who I said should be 10k about 3 weeks ago and hasn’t even made it above 9k.  Sure, the Nationals are pesky, but a crafty lefty is going to limit them today and find his way through 7 innings without much of a sweat. JESUS LUZARDO (DK: $8000, FD: $9600) Next on the DK chalk train is Luzardo, who returns to the west coast where his career began but now to face the Padres which are really bad against lefties for the better part of the last month.  This one could come in lower just because people do not trust the Marlins, and I do not trust him vs Machado to be honest.  Yet, the rest of the lineup we should. Other Pitching Thoughts For cheap darts, Matt Waldron is tempting at $6200 vs Miami in PETCO.  Really everyone else you want is close enough to Fried/Luzardo/Gausman, so just go them.   Some Updates: Giants have swapped out Spencer Howard for Erik Miller.  Smart move fellas.  This removes all love for the Phillies tonight for me.     PHILLIES Just opening up […]

Happy Memorial Day.  FanDuel is starting at 4PM for their main slate, and DraftKings runs 1PM through the 4PM window of games today.   WEATHER A few stormy potential spots Boston at Baltimore:  Fun, I’ll be at a game that should be shortened due to storms.  Game starts on time, likely finishes, but may have a delay.  Wind blowing well out to left field. Dodgers at Mets:  Storms, they should delay but they could wait it out and get it in. Nats at Braves:  Pop-Up storms, should be fine.   CHRIS BASSITT (DK: $8200) The hound dog has fallen off bad against lefties, but lucky for him the White Sox are VOID of much power from that side of the plate and the Jays lineup is one of my top ones here to continue a nice little heater streak overall for them. Just one week ago he went 7 strong with 0 ER against the same lineup.  Logic says he wont shut them out again today, but common sense says he won’t get blown up either. CHARLIE MORTON (DK: $8600) Sad times indeed in Atlanta, they lost the guy who had a career year last year and is back to being a very good player this season.  Okay, I’m kinda joking, but in all seriousness the Braves issues are not centered around Acuna.  After all, they didn’t need him to win a World Series before, ya know.   What they did need is guys like Charlie Morton not sucking against Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Joey Gallo. JUSTIN STEELE (DK: $7000) I wouldn’t trust Justin Steele to get you more than Bassitt or Morton.  But he probably will get another 12-14 DK FPTS, so he is viable third option.  If he finds a way to avoid blowing up then we’ll get back to prior season Steele when everyone was in love with the dynamic lefty. Other Pitching Thoughts After doing my hitting analysis, I found almost zero love for the KC bats today.  This means that Mr. Joe Ryan, who has a very high $10,300 price tag on DraftKings logically should be written up as a play here.  So consider this that notation that Ryan, yes, likely has a clean game again today. Given how bad Boston has been, Cole Irvin returning to the rotation is not the worst play today. After a long night on Sunday Night and […]

A light Sunday slate (7 games on DraftKings) thanks to the Dodgers/Reds being moved up to 12:10 and the Blue Jays/Tigers playing at 11:30 this morning.  FanDuel has included Ranger Suarez (Phillies) vs Cal Quantrill (Rockies) on their main slate. Both sites should have nice afternoon tilt slates as well.   WEATHER Orioles at White Sox – This one looks worse than the one below.  They’ll probably have to wait it out and both teams play afternoon games tomorrow. Braves at Pirates – This one is much clearer.  I doubt they run into any issues but a slight chance of late inning delay.   Kudos to DraftKings (and FD) as I think their pricing today is spot on. CHRIS SALE (DK: $10,500, FD: $11,000) Sale or bust.  He is back to his prime/elite ways pitching with Atlanta & Pittsburgh vs LHP has almost no power outside of Edward Olivares – who has a 42% strikeout rate against LH sliders, so yeah, advantage Sale here. PABLO LOPEZ (DK: $9300, FD: $9600) So much for the hope that Texas would wake up yesterday against Paddack.  They’ll have an even tougher time against Lopez, who has the luxury of coming off a short 74 pitch outing vs the Nationals earlier this week and is primed to give Minnesota 7+ innings today.  Lopez doesn’t walk anyone and Texas is not hitting singles right now, so expect him to have lots of 1-2-3 innings whenever he doesn’t have to see Seager or Adolis.  I do think Adolis takes him deep once though. ROBERT GASSER (DK: $6600) Whatever the Red Sox are going to roll out today, it probably won’t be very good.  Although no Tyler O’Neill might be a good thing the way that meathead is approaching his plate appearances now.  Gasser finally got lit up in his last start, something every rookie SP must go through and I’m really only considering him today because we’re short on cheap options & the Red Sox lineup is fucking dog shit.  Somehow there’s a reason to use Gasser or the Sox shitty value bats today, pick one. Other Pitching Thoughts Would love Kyle Bradish vs Chicago but the weather is a big concern. Streaks end on Sundays.  I really can see Tampa beating Kansas City today, but I think it’s more through the offense than Tampa winning a game 2-1.  Taj Bradley is pitching fantastic & is […]

Another Saturday split slate with DraftKings taking the lead on a quality DFS experience as they have the full 1PM & 4PM window of games combined together.   WEATHER Braves at Pirates:  Storms and Rain throughout the day here could cause a PPD in this spot or at minimum a long delay. Two of my favorite pitchers are going today, both on the road, in Brady Singer and Logan Gilbert, and wouldn’t you know it, both of them are at the top of the MODEL projections as of this morning.  Unfortunately though, that’s more to do with the rest of the group of arms that are behind them today. BRADY SINGER (DK: $9300) Singer is the top arm, because he does well historically at getting whiffs against lefties and Tampa is likely to roll out the Lowe’s, Aranda and some crappy lefties behind them.  Furthermore, neither Yandy Diaz or Randy Arozarena are hitting much of anything right now – so I don’t see Singer having any struggles pitching in the stadium closest to where he grew up. JOSE BERRIOS (DK: $8100, FD: $9200) This is an option (and the best one) on FanDuel & a mediocre SP2 option at best on DraftKings.  A lot like Singer, Berrios is able to get more whiffs against the lefties and Greene/Carpenter are probably the most dangerous bats in the Detroit lineup, although one could argue Javier Baez is dangerous for fans because the bat could go flying out of his hand as he swings at everything with his eyes closed.   Guys that I do not mind, but won’t rank ahead of those two Logan Gilbert – Ball could carry here in Nats park today and the Nats K% isn’t high enough to trust him to ‘go off’ Reese Olson Michael Lorenzen   RANGERS If you have been paying attention to baseball this month then you know that the stud hitters who have gotten ‘hot’ have stayed hot for a while.  Exhibit A: Kyle Tucker.  Another guy who is white hot and has all the reason to stay hot today is Corey Seager. Love the Texas bats to wake up today Corey Seager – SS Marcus Semien – 2B Nate Lowe – 1B Josh Smith – 3B RED SOX For some reason folks were on Boston last night, mostly due to the mythical implied run total statistic.  Some luck boxed their asses into a […]

The Friday before a Holiday weekend, which means we will start to see the balls flying out of parks as always and tonight is a very nice old school Friday night slate.  We have no Cubs afternoon Wrigley game and there are four ‘Turbo’ slate games, which includes Alek Manoah versus the Tigers and MacKenzie Gore on the bump for Washington. But none of that matters for us here, because we will use those long 25 minutes between slate locks to build our Main slate lineups, thank you DFS sites for thinking of us on this fine Friday where no human being should be doing anything important after 2PM.  The slate features Dodgers in Cincinnati, Phillies in Coors, and Premium Pitching.  It’s very much a ‘stars and scrubs’ type build to things tonight on the initial glance.   WEATHER Overall no issues tonight.  Expect a possible delay for the Cubs/Cardinals and Orioles/White Sox games, but everything will play. It is a premium pitching slate with four players over 9k and another six in the 8k range on DraftKings.  There are also a couple young arms that I think are overpriced with ceiling limitations but they have a good chance of pitching well in Kyle Harrison, Christian Scott and Christopher Sanchez.  The last of which is in Coors Field, so even though he’s only $7200 it’s still a bit steep for a guy I think wants to be a black Dallas Keuchel. You should IMO have one if not two of these studs, but the premium on hitting obviously makes us want to take a look at the Tier 2 arms. CORBIN BURNES (DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.6k) As noted the last time Burnes took the mound, we are about to see him explode into the former Cy Young level Burnes.  Eleven strikeouts against the Mariners and now another good K% upside team in the White Sox.  Put me down for another 10+ whiffs here and not a single hitter in the South Side lineup has favorable power metrics vs Burnes. BAILEY OBER (DK: $8300, FD: $8400) Rangers are worse vs LHP but we’re banking on Ober’s talent himself and the way he has pitched in May (prior to the last start) to be the anchor here.  Overall a nearly 40% K rate in the last monthand the Texas 5-9 lineup is very cold right now.  It’s also not extremely warm up in Target Field […]

Happy Thursday Baseball and let me make a pitch real quick for the Man of the Year Award to Time Magazine if they still do that. Today the Pirates of Pittsburgh are playing their usual home Thursday afternoon game at 12:35 PM.  Normally, I would watch this, because, you know, Baseball right?  But today, you and I – we HAVE to watch, simply because it’s Paul Skenes.  Give the man the award now because he has made the Pirates great … again?   WEATHER All games play   Woah….  The top two pitchers (Skenes and Wheeler) are the exact same price on FD as they are on DK.  The Matrix is real folks. Lock and load for me on Skenes, I think we ride the train until he has that one crash start.  Sure, its chalky, sure, its trendy.  No, I’m not fading him.  On the flip side, I can pass on Wheeler by going with Heaney because what would be more fitting than a 1-0 Phillies win for Wheeler.  Philly has not hit LHP well in the past week, so lets hope that continues to slide in their direction before they head out to Coors tomorrow. PAUL SKENES (DK: $9500, FD: 9500) ANDREW HEANEY (DK: $6800, FD: $7500) ZACK WHEELER (DK: $11,000, FD: $11000)     PADRES vs REDS San Diego will hammer Montas in the small park and Machado’s HR is just a ticking time bomb away from happening.  The HR DUE trend on the model has been white hot and we have just one guy today who fits the statistical profile for it — Mr. Manny. Manny Machado – 3B Jake Cronenworth – 1B Jurickson Profar – OF   CINCINNATI REDS The stack I think fits really well that most will ignore though is Cincinnati.  You need to know Jacob Hurtubise as he is going to be a poor mans Brandon Nimmo in my evaluation and while he may not have the lengthy career that Nimmo has carved out, at least for the short time he is going to be a DFS cornerstone.  At $2200 pairing Hurtubise with Elly ($6300) you are going to just play the total bases + steals + runs scored stack combination without chasing homers.  Although a cheap Mike Ford HR out of the 3-hole today would not shock me. Jacob Hurtubise – OF Elly De La Cruz – SS Mike Ford – […]

Great news, we have the slate starting at 6:40! FanDuel:  Hey, uh, you forgot two games fellas.  Yeah, they dropped the Colorado/Oakland and Arizona/LA Dodgers games.  You know, the ones which brought us over the cash line last night thanks to the Rockies and Christian Walker/Brandon Pfaadt.  Nice job FanDuel.  Nice job….  Fucking morons.   WEATHER All games play   TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $10,600) This is your smash SP1 today, and would have been a lock button on FanDuel too.    With so much cheap SP2 options tonight lock him in and move along. JESUS LUZARDO (DK: $7800, FD: $9400) It’s a little disturbing just how good Luzardo’s metrics look tonight vs the Brewers, who come in with a near 36% projected whiff rate, a metric which usually comes through when it’s this high and Luzardo isn’t going to be that limited having made two starts since his brief IL stint.  The only other FanDuel option is Blake Snell, but I have to see him trust his change-up with success before I go there this year. AUSTIN GOMBER (DK: $6800) Another DK only spot here, and a great SP2 to pair with Glasnow.  In fact, I would be shocked if most do not default into this build today for the late night SP1-2 hammer.   PADRES I am a bit of a sucker for the Padres going into a tiny ballpark and now they face their former SP in Nick Martinez — who is going to give up 2 HR to LHB today and they both might be Jake Cronenworth Jake Cronenworth Jackson Merrill Luis Campusano RANGERS Love the Phillies side here too, but factoring in the cost to full stack the team the Rangers are a better PT/$ play Corey Seager Nathaniel Lowe Josh Smith   CATCHER Luis Campusano Travis d’Arnaud Korey Lee   FIRST BASE Deepest spot on the slate tonight. Jake Cronenworth Nate Lowe Garrett Cooper   SECOND BASE Ozzie Albies Bryson Stott Marcus Semien   THIRD BASE Ryan McMahon Josh Smith Manny Machado   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Mookie Betts Elly De La Cruz   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Bryce Harper Jackson Merrill Will Benson Ronanld Acuna Jr.   Chairman of The Dongers Club Jake Cronenworth – 1B/2B – San Diego Padres   Chalk / Seems Obvious Homers: Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Mookie Betts   Contrarian Home Runs Ronald Acuna Jr – OF – Braves Josh Smith […]

The Orioles and Cardinals were suspended last night, which has turned this into just a four game slate.  Fortunately, it’s the same slate on both FD and DK. I really do not have a ton of confidence on just this four gamer, and my brain says just apply the short slate rule which is game stack SP in one game, game stack hitters in another and just move on without much stress.  Yet, we often finds ourselves (or I do), sitting there and tinkering the short slate lineups way more than the main slate ones and that’s a clear sign that we just really do not have a strong pull either from our gut, our data or whatever we ate last night for dinner.   WEATHER Mets @ Guardians:  Storms popping up before and during the game, could cause a delay, but not likely to cause a PPD.   The obvious SP game stack is probably to take Ragans and Skubal, both of whom should push 7+ strikeouts today and pair them together for that high SP floor.  It is a day game in Kauffman Stadium though, where the ball is carrying well right now for the Royals, and that really thins you out in the hitting options for two guys that will cost 20k combined.   Between the two, Ragans is my guy. Outside of that, Hunter Brown just isn’t going to go more than 5 IP and would have to be not only perfect through those 5, but really be above that to justify him beating out many others.  There’s a ton of risk with Taylor Ward and maybe even Willie Calhoun if the model is right today.  I want no business with Tyler Anderson either.  Right now the Astros are killing lefties, and the Angels are hitting righties. The interesting SP match-up whom I don’t think folks will consider is the Single White Rapper (Simeon-Woods Richardson) against Jake, from Washington, Irvin.  Can you get enough from these two combined to match one of Skubal or Ragans?  Maybe.  Can one pair very nicely with Ragans who goes by the name of Jake Irvin?  Yes! Mets/Guardians is the spot I am luring in hitting from.  Wish me luck.   MY SP PAIRING RANKINGS Ragans & Irvin Skubal & SWR   We don’t have to do a game stack, but it just makes it easier for building sometimes. METS / GUARDIANS Just the […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

Tuesday has arrived, and after a short 8-game slate, you might expect a nice big 13, 14, or even 15-game slate, right? Unfortunately, that’s not the case. It’s frustrating to see that the 6:40 and 7:05 lock times mean different slates from DraftKings and FanDuel. What’s even more annoying is that the 6:40 games include some really good matchups that we want to play.  I admit though that as I get older, I appreciate the earlier start times so that I can be passed out by 10 PM on some nights, dreaming that my bet with a team up by 5 runs is going to cash, only to wake up and find out they blew it. Alas, here’s what you need to know about the 6-game Turbo slate, even though we should be boycotting it for DFS. The Turbo slate does not include the Mets at the Guardians, where Francisco Lindor is going to hit a home run tonight.  Take the over there. The Banged up RANGERS are in Philly to take on another lefty, a spot they have really struggled with of late.  Ranger Suarez is pitching lights out and should have one more big one in him tonight. San Diego is the top team on the Turbo slate.  Love Profar, Machado and Kim. Logan Webb is SP2, Joe Ryan is SP3 and yes, Patrick Corbin vs the Twins is going to end poorly.   WEATHER All games should play tonight, but Baltimore @ St. Louis will have to hurry before storms come through. Windy out to LCF in Wrigley with day time temps near 90 degrees.   CASEY MIZE (DK: $6700, FD: $7700) This will be career start #48 for Casey Mize, which is almost two full seasons and we’re seeing him settle into what he should be.  A reliable pitcher who can throw 90-100 pitches, will not get blown up in most parks and should keep his walks down while getting lots of ground balls.  He is a poor mans Sonny Gray in many ways and when there is a group of options like tonight which lack security up top he is my favorite option.  Kansas City is actually a K% boost in my mind, they’re gonna swing aggressive here and help him get ahead in the counts. GARRETT CROCHET (DK: $9500, FD: $10k) On the flip side, someone with a ton of strikeout and boom or […]