WEATHER Now we are talking April weather!  Some rain concerns with high PPD chances today.  Both games in Chicago (Braves/St. Helen of the Blessed, and Rockies/Cubs) are going to either be PPD well before lock or will play. The Tigers/Mets game has virtually no chance of playing today IMO, but they also have rain all week, so who knows what they try to do there. Roof will be back OPEN in Arizona tonight.   Brayan Bello (DK: $8000, FD: $8800) … We’re just gonna be riding the pitchers against Oakland for as long as we need too & Bello is better than Houck which makes this a scenario that projects to be a VERY high ownership spot.   You wanna fade?  You’re money, go right ahead. Shane Bieber (DK: $8800, FD: $10,200) … Huge price difference here between the sites, which is interesting but I believe DK is weighing 2023 Beiber a little too much and we’re more likely to get 2021 Bieber here early in the season as he wants to get the hell out of Cleveland (can’t blame him). Yu Darvish (DK: $8200, FD: $9300) … Third start of the year already for Darvish.  Had good whiff rates in his last one and the Cardinals, while showing some pop last night, probably fall back to earth tonight.   OTHER SP THOUGHTS … Luis Castillo (No K vs Cleveland), Zac Gallen (Roof & Yankees hitting well), Webb (Dodgers) are the only other guys who I gave some slight consideration too, but am opting to pass on all of them. There’s no “cheap” value pitcher tonight.   If you remove Tigers, Mets, Braves, White Sox, Rockies, Cubs from this slate it really thins out VERY quickly.  And by removing those teams, I really just mean the Braves and Cubs.  I’ll be riding on some unders elsewhere tonight. Dodgers (Smith, Freeman, Muncy) Diamondbacks (Carroll, Walker, Moreno) … Cortes is no doubt good for 3-4 ER allowed, which could be a slate winner today and with the way Arizona could possibly run the bases on the bullpen we might get that SB upside here today as well. Red Sox (Story, O’Neill, Rafaela) … I stand by my theory from last night, but man the Athletics look lifeless and this is without a doubt your chalk lineup which is going to smash all season long.   I am excluding all Tigers, Mets, Braves, White Sox, […]

WEATHER All clear   Nobody really blows the socks off tonight.  I would avoid Triston McKenzie but he does have decent strikeout upside.  I fear walks could push him out sooner than favorable though.  Here’s the rankings, the top 2 are my favorites and I have a darkhorse sleeper tonight as well. TANNER HOUCK (DK: $8400, FD: $8300) … The choices tonight suck, so Houck against Oakland should be 50% owned and should not be faded just because of ownership. REESE OLSON (DK: 8200, FD: $7800) – The Mets suck, I am sorry but they are just BAD.  Olson’s one challenge is making sure he doesn’t issue too many walks and the veteran Mets hitters could give him problems there, but I see no major red flags on Olson otherwise. KYLE GIBSON (DK: $7900, FD: $8400) – I am stoked for Kyle Gibson to get into the National League and he draws a good spot here in PETCO.   OTHER SP THOUGHTS … Joe Boyle … I have been doing this long enough and following baseball WAY longer to have certain “gut” calls on teams in spots.  Boston going to Oakland is one of them.  They do not have another American League team whose stadium they have hit worse in since 2002, nor is their W% lower in any other spot.  Obviously park shift and quality of opponent is the logical thing here, but to me there is more to it.  And tonight they draw a SP they’ve never seen who does have good FB velocity in Boyle.   The good ballpark tonight is Chase Field, but with overcast and rain all day in Arizona they are projecting the roof to be closed and even if it opens, it’s not that warm.  That aside though, the big outfield does help offense and the Yankees draw the best park boost there for road teams, as they’re hitting decent enough to take advantage. Toronto and Houston is the next best spot and then everything else is generally the same, although the Dodgers at home are always considered a + spot. It’s still early in the season (duh), so I am not here to be hyping up a ton of over the top 4-5 man stacks, but here are the teams I am expecting to do the best. NY Yankees (Trevino, Rizzo, Soto, Torres) Houston Astros (Alvarez, Altuve) St. Louis Cardinals (Gorman, Goldy, […]

There are six months of MLB DFS action and so far the first three days have been fun.  Today is a holiday, a Sunday and a very boring and quiet slate IMO. WEATHER No issues.   TREVOR ROGERS (DK: $8600, FD: $8900) … This isn’t a south beach theory necessarily, as much as it is a lack of good arm talent going today.  Really if you exclude Gausman and Sale off the theory that you don’t wanna force veteran aces early in the year then you land on someone like Rogers, who is still trying to prove that he can be a reliable 28-30 start pitcher as they will need from him this season.  Pittsburgh’s been the winner of the sleeper series thus far but they do have some holes vs LHP and should net Rogers a 5-6 strikeout performance. TYLER WELLS (DK: $8300, FD: $9300) … We have to be smart with the Orioles vs the Angels and expect a QS and the win and Wells does a good job of keeping men off base and was very good at Camden Yards in 2023.  If you aren’t using Wells then I can only assume you have an Angels leverage stack. THE SUNDAY SLEEPER Jack Flaherty (DK: $8900, FD: $9000) Now a Tiger, he might be able to keep the walks down simply by pitching in the AL Central.  The White Sox did go off yesterday, but I still see this as a bad lineup and the weather is chilly here.  Ball shouldn’t carry much.   OTHER SP THOUGHTS … Brady Singer has always struggled vs the Twins, I will pass him here. Chris Sale was good in Spring, but I have to see it in the regular season before locking him in.  He’s a streaky guy, who needs to get into a groove and opening start doesn’t feel like that time to take that risk.   I don’t see this being an over the top – gotta have a stack – type slate.  Meaning, no team is dropping a 10-12 spot and doing the default 4-3-1 type build is not likely to wind up looking that great today. Top Stacks Minnesota Twins (Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Byron Buxton) … Decent weather at the K today, with the Twins being affordable on DraftKings to produce the best chance of a 3 or 4 man stack paying off. Houston Astros (Yordan Alvarez, […]

Overview It’s Easter Sunday and we’re racing under the lights. It’s safe to say that we’re getting into the meat and potatoes of the NASCAR Cup Series season heading to Richmond Raceway, one of the premier short tracks on the schedule. Richmond is known for aggressive tire wear putting an emphasis on the drivers to […]

We have a split slate today with a heavy set on the afternoon window and not too much of a difference between FD and DK.  FanDuel has separated out the 1PM window games (Brewers/Mets, Tigers/White Sox) on to their own Very Early slate, while DraftKings went ahead and included them on their big Early slate which all total is nine games. There will be no night slate article tonight – but a few notes at the end of this article covering thoughts on that one.  I found I did MUCH worse when I did two slates on the same day the last 2-3 years. WEATHER I see no PPD risks today but a few windy spots, most notably in Cincinnati which is already a softball field to begin with.0   This is a fantastic set of names going today, but it’s a shame that we get them all together on their season debuts.  If this was mid June we could really be making some tough decisions. Young arms DL Hall and Jared Jones are both taking the bump making their first career pro starts.  Young but experienced Grayson Rodriguez, Tanner Bibee, Hunter Greene are going to the mound.  Max Fried vs Aaron Nola!  Patrick Corbin is still pitching (in the aforementioned windy softball field) and look here fellas.  It’s a double Asian Saturday with Kenta Maeda AND Yusei Kikuchi is BACK in our lives.  I know everyone is stoked… MY GUYS GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ (DK: $7900, FD: $9200) … The Corbin Burnes show on Thursday was mostly Burnes but also a little bit of “Orioles Pitchers” because of the Adley effect.  Grayson is going to become that elite consistent pitcher this season now that Burnes is there as well to mentor him and this Angels lineup, while they have Trout, they have my guy Nolan Ryan Schanuel, they’ve also got Aaron Hicks, Brandon Drury, Miguel Sano and a lot of strikeouts.  Take GrayRod and enjoy the 5-6 IP with 6-8 strikeouts and a Win. SETH LUGO (DK: $8300, FD: $8500) … I would not scream loudly if you wanted to use Joe Ryan for $1k more on the other side in this game, but we’ll trust the new Royal who is good vs RHH, doesn’t get blown up much and should see 6 righties today — which is the good part of the Twins lineup at the moment.  Not a sexy […]

Overview Richmond is known as “America’s premier short track” and could be considered a fan-favorite venue. The .75-mile asphalt oval opened in 1946 and the XFINITY Series has been racing there since 1982. The drivers will turn 250 laps totaling 187.5 miles making this race the one with the most dominator points available on the […]

Creighton vs Tennessee Love this game, top game on the slate for me… Creighton:  Steven Ashworth, Baylor Scheierman Tennessee:   Zakai Zeigler, Josiah Jordan James NC State vs Marquette NC State:  DJ Horne Marquette:  Tyler Kolek Gonzaga vs Purdue Zags:  Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg Purdue:  Fletcher Loyer Duke vs Houston Duke:  Jared McCain, Jeremy Roach Houston:  […]

WEATHER CLE at OAK:  We could have a rare Oakland rain out tonight, but if that is the case then we’ll definitely know it before hand because if they are waiting then they are playing.  Minimal DFS impact here, although Logan Allen is a cheap SP option for Cleveland. Roof open in Arizona Tonight, three pitchers stand out for their potential upside: Bobby Miller, Nick Pivetta, and George Kirby. However, I caution that it won’t be as straightforward as the success we witnessed with top-tier pitchers on Opening Day. You might be wondering, but what about Joe Musgrove?  He was pretty bad over in Korea against a much tougher Dodgers lineup, and one would assume that back in PETCO against the Giants he is far more reliable and trustworthy.  I prefer the alternate options above and have zero concerns with not having Musgrove. MY PITCHERS Nick Pivetta (DK: $8100, FD: $8500) … Pivetta has the most strikeout potential IMO, lock him in as SP1 on both sites and roll with the flow. Bobby Miller (DK: $9000, FD: $8900) … Expect less strikeouts here than Pivetta, but the Cardinals vets are not scaring me yet and it’s actually chilly in LA today, I don’t expect St. Louis to have a big offensive game.   OTHER SP THOUGHTS … Merrill Kelly will be OK, not great Logan Allen is cheap and facing the lowly Athletics, I get it.  Pricing isn’t a major concern though. George Kirby … The Boston lineup is no joke folks.  Tons of power here, I am just passing on both sides tonight.   DIAMONDBACKS Joc Pederson, Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll So we follow up the Diamondbacks massive inning last night with them drawing Cal Quantrill today and once again the roof is open.  I wasn’t big on the Joc Pederson signing in the off-season, but he’ll be a chalky and logical pick tonight. PIRATES vs MARLINS PIT:  Reynolds, Joe, Davis, Hayes ||  MIA:  Burger, Bell, Jazz I have never been an A.J. Puk guy, but he is admittedly a decent pitcher.  That said, converting him back into a starter is not to go completely perfect and I wouldn’t pass up the chance to get some cheap Pirates against him.  I like this game for runs again tonight and would be fine with both sides in a little mini game stack.   CATCHER Henry Davis Gabriel Moreno Alejandro Kirk   […]

Big day today with MLB Opening Day and the start of the Sweet 16.  Fantastic sports day and some GREAT college games these next two nights. Clemson vs Arizona Caleb Love and Pelle Larsson are going to tear up Clemson’s Guards.  But Clemson is also VERY under-priced with a big pace boost. ARIZ:  Caleb Love, […]

I am back.  We are back.  The thrill of Baseball is back. I wrote about this a year ago, and maybe I will be writing it again come next season at this time, but I am nearing the end of my DFS writing days.  I am the type of person who admittedly puts way too much time into something when I am invested into it heavily, to the point that I created my own site, built a Dashboard, Optimizer, scraped data, setup automation and various other items for MLB, CFB, CBB, NBA, NHL, PGA and yes, way back in 2020 that fucking awesome KBO Dashboard.  Things that almost nobody else has built from scratch like I did, and why?  Well, because I wanted my own tools for doing my research and for playing. But over time, my building of these tools and writing content has taken the place of actually just enjoying DFS as a hobby — which is what it always was supposed to be for me, and should be for many of you as well.  If we aren’t enjoying it, then whats the point?  And while I pounded my chest in the past about being reliable, consistent and always delivering content, I definitely realized last year (and truthfully the year before) that writing every day just isn’t worth it. I was extremely close to completely walking away this year and telling everyone that you can keep your subscription for the dashboards at a lower price, because really the payments are here just to keep the lights on for the server(s) and also maybe to pay for a few beers for me every now and then. But let’s be honest.  When that first Friday Wrigley home game hits, I’m going to be itching like hell to come in here and write up about some rookie pitcher being bad chalk that Friday night and why we should be attacking them with a late night Diamondbacks stack as the hammer. So yeah…. And so the show goes on. But there won’t be as many of those ‘early’ slate articles this year.  And some weekends might be thinner as well if the slates aren’t ideal.  I will not leave you in the blind each week with what is coming, but it’s going to be a better product for you, for me, and for well, maybe the Pirates too! So let’s kick off […]