College Football is finally starting to take shape and I honestly am excited that the SEC and eventually the Big Ten are jumping straight into conference play.  We had to deal with non FBS schools and teams like the Citadel for the past two weekends but this Saturday’s slate is fantastic.   Yes, one game got PPD due to COVID already and some others are dropping around the country but as of now we look locked in on an 11 game slate that starts at Noon on DraftKings.

 

Here are the 11 games that are going today with the games that have high totals noted

TOP TIER GAMES

Texas at Texas Tech – Highest total on the board for good reason at 67

Florida at Ole Miss – OU: 64

Georgia Tech at Syracuse – My sneaky game this week.

 

MID RANGE GAMES

West Virginia at Oklahoma St – OU: 56

Kansas State at Oklahoma – OU: 57

Mississippi St at LSU

Louisville at Pittsburgh

 

GAMES THAT I HAVE LITTLE TO NO INTEREST IN

Kentucky at Auburn – Lean Auburn in a blowout

Georgia at Arkansas – Georgia my fade

Army at Cincinnati

Duke at Virginia

 

 

Obviously the SEC teams are just getting going but most of the other spots on this slate have at least got a game in under their belts to start the season, so we have some data and understanding of roles for those teams which helps greatly but also brings a little bit of opportunity to pivot off plays who maybe are over-hyped simply off one game.

 

TOP GAMES OF THE DAY

CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in,  balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.

Texas (-19) at Texas Tech

Simply put, I am going to not tell you to avoid this top game because the heavy home dog Texas Tech has fared well against the Longhorns in this match-up lately and they’ll be returning Quarterback Alan Bowman this season and already went heavy on his arm in their first game throwing 52 times for 430 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Against the Longhorns defense in a game where Ehlinger will be pushing it down the field quickly, he should see plenty of opportunities to compile stats.  The flow and pace on this game should be tremendous and I love Texas Tech +19 to keep it close and it warrants using 2 Quarterbacks from it.

Texas:  Sam Ehlinger (QB)

Texas Tech:  Alan Bowman (QB), TJ Vasher (WR), Dalton Rigdon (WR)

 

Georgia Tech (-8) at Syracuse

Not many games are going to match the fireworks of the game above, but this one features some good DFS value in it.  Both teams have Quarterbacks who can get it done on the ground and both teams feature below average defenses.  When I say below average, I am being kind in regards to Syracuse who got torched by Pittsburgh last weekend.  Being at home I actually do like the Orange to hold up their end of the bargain here and the combination of Tommy DeVito and Junior Wide Reciever Taj Harris make a fantastic combination — but going DeVito means fading one of Ehlinger or Bowman and that’s just simply throwing caution to the wind.  So the value here is only a fade of the popular game

UPDATE:  Mason is OUT for Georgia Tech, so fire up Jahmyr Gibbs

Georgia Tech:  Jeff Sims (QB), Jalen Camp (WR), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)

Syracuse:  Tommy DeVito (QB), Taj Harris (WR)

 

SNEAKY SHOOTOUT

Mississippi St at LSU (-16.5)

Yes, LSU was dominant last season in a magical year.  But they’re not even close to the same team this year and should be looked at as a team to not just fade offensively but consider attacking on the other side.  Mississippi State was extremely run heavy last season averaging 40 carries per game compared to just 24 passes.  No chance in hell that holds up this year under new head coach Mike Leach who brings his air raid offense down to the south to flip the Bulldogs into a higher paced offense.  It could take them a few games to really get going and in this COVID year it could even take most of the season, but if we’re all wrong on that (including Vegas) then we’re gonna miss out on a sneaky high shootout.

 

MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

Sam Ehlinger (Texas) – I am leaning on playing Ehlinger naked this week due to lots of good WR options and the fact that he will have to do damage with his legs to make him hit as the #1 play on the board.

Alan Bowman (Texas Tech) – I want him more than Ehlinger when we consider PT/$ this week.  Bowman and T.J. Vasher correlate into a must for me this weekend and Texas Tech +18 is the best bet of the day, so we gotta like Bowman in that scenario.

Tommy DeVito (Syracuse) – Upset speceial.  Syracuse wins a game at home over Georgia Tech.  The Orange are not a good football team this year, but we’re going to get the new look Georgia Tech offense coming into the dome for what is my favorite sneaky shootout of the week.  The DeVito to Taj Harris combination is my under the radar spot of the week.

Also consider:  Spencer Rattler (OU) and Jeff Sims (GT)

 

RUNNING BACKS

Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State) – After a poor showing by the Cowboys last weekend against Tulsa in which they lost their starting QB early in the game, we should see them bounce back in a major way against West Virginia this week.  Chuba breaks the big one he didn’t have last weekend this week.  Don’t forget about him for the love of God.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Georgia Tech) – Jordan Mason is OUT for Georgia Tech again, so Gibbs will likely not only be a popular play — but a good one in a game that should be a nice early start to the Saturday slate.

Shaun Shivers (Auburn) – Looks like the best value play on the board at RB which would allow you to get both Ehlinger and Chuba.  I personally think the winning lineup this week will have a fade of Chuba or Ehlinger on it and KJ Hill at Running Back, but do not put a gun to my head and ask me to pick between Ehlinger and Chuba.  So here we are.

Kylin Hill (Mississippi State) – The LSU defense had holes last year which were covered by due to having God at Quarterback with the best offense in the country.  This year the entire LSU team has either graduated or opted out which is going to open things up even more on the defensive side of the ball.  This isn’t to say that LSU lacks talent, as they’ll still be a formidable team in a rebuild year but with Mississippi State having air-raid coming into town we should no doubt look here for this game to go over.  Hill should see more catches out of the backfield, which at his normal snap % and a reduce price on DK, makes him an easy value lock.

Malik Davis (Florida) … Value play with some PPR upside.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

This is the depth on this slate.  Lots of mid priced players who can see enough targets to haul in 5 or 6 catches, so lots of 6 catches for 70 yards stat lines on DraftKings getting you 2x this weekend without even considering any touchdown or that big one for the 100 yard bonus.  Needless to say, this is your FLEX position this week.

T.J. Vasher (Texas Tech) – My top overall WR on this slate.   Do not fade him.

Taj Harris (Syracuse) – I lean Harris over Pickens.  Pickens long term is the stud, but Harris is getting so much volume in the Syracuse offense and at home should thrive.

The above two guys are LOCKED IN for me.  Get as much exposure to them as you can

Kyle Pitts (Florida) – He’s your steady as it goes play this week against a terrible Ole Miss secondary.

Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) – Good run it back with Pitts, should see lots of volume.

 

Other players in the mix (i.e. Miss St vs LSU)

Osirus Mitchell (MSST)

Kayshon Boutte (LSU), Terrance Marshall (LSU)

Charleston Rambo (OU)

Taysir Mack* (Pitt)

Brennan Eagles (Texas)

*Mack is questionable

 

Slightly Contrarian Stud

Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State) – If Illingsworth is going to start then he’ll hand it off to Chuba or throw to Tylan and that is the ENTIRE offense this week.