Tonight will now be only a four game slate as the Tigers-White Sox game will NOT be included on the main slates because they are playing a double-header. The reason they are playing a double-header is because they PPD last night’s game before it ever started — which per DraftKings policy means that all players from that game are unlocked and available for late swap because they never technically should have locked. This is a policy that has been around for a while and was actually even applied in College Basketball this year as well. But it seems that none of the loud mouth know it alls out there on Twitter were aware of this. It’s basically a situation where DraftKings has made this change in their policy in regards to MLB games and rainouts or cancellations but as is typical for most human beings if it doesn’t impact you would you even care or notice?
I noticed last year when a game between the Braves and Phillies on a Friday night was PPD immediately before the game was set to begin. I had players in that game and thus was pleased to find that I could then swap off those players onto anyone else before the final game of the slate began. One week later the Royals and Twins had a game that was called 2 minutes after the start time of the game was to begin. It was an 8:10 EST game and official notice on the postponement came at 8:12 PM. But in this scenario the game had locked on DK and ownership %’s were displayed and everything.
Do I think they should have different rules for the two scenarios? Not really, it would be great if any game which technically never begins by a player throwing the first pitch is available for late swap — but I get that there are behind the scenes mechanisms which can make that extremely difficult.
You cannot argue though that this is DK making up the rules as they go. The slippery slope for DK (& FD) is that they need official word that the game is PPD and the timing of that can be tricky as it was last night. We received notice that the game was PPD before it locked and I was able to not only notify our Discord of this but personally swap off anyone I had in the game before it was even scheduled to lock. Should I have been the only one lucky enough to have no life and be sitting on my lazy ass able to make this swap while someone else who maybe had something going on couldn’t? No. Did I benefit from this? No. Because they opened it up for everyone and don’t give me the “well, I lost my edge” bullshit because you just aren’t as fucking sharp as you claim to be if you are sitting around claiming that you had an edge which was lost because the game was unlocked. Follow the rules and maybe pay attention because they have been pushing the start time back on all PPD games all season long YOU JUST DIDNT NOTICE IT. (Sorry, I am not yelling at you the reader here, I’m just yelling at the people who are still crying over something because they want something to cry over.). Maybe next time they’ll pay attention to another mans shoes…
WEATHER
All clear. Four really good games tonight.
Trevor Bauer
Normally on a short slate you would look and say fade the top guy (which is what I did on the early slate with Aaron Nola). But this isn’t that same scenario because Bauer will have 10+ strikeouts against a really bad Milwaukee lineup, we have other ways to get different on this slate and I’ll take the Bauer SP1 game here.
Adbert Azolay
While the Braves sent off with a ton of HR against Kyle Hendricks last night and the rest of the Cubs, they still do possess one major quality that we want to find when looking for a sneaky high upside play on a short slate. Strikeouts. I have the Braves projected lineup as dead even in terms of strike-out % tonight with likely chalky SP2 options Martin Perez (vs Texas) and Luke Weaver (vs Colorado). The major upside here is that both Perez and Weaver are known to have issues at times and Azolay is not a terrible young arm. This is my pivot tonight in the pitching department.
As always with a short slate you can get away with just 2 SP from the same game on DraftKings and Bauer+Lauer would rank at the top simply because you are getting Bauer and leveraging against the Dodgers hitters with Lauer. But the game which I think could go under tonight and have safe performances from both SP’s would be Martin Perez vs Kyle Gibson with a closed roof in Texas. It means fading Bauer, but this is the best SP stack.
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon
Colorado hammers in Arizona and should hammer Luke Weaver with the roof open tonight. Go all in with this game with the Rockies being the side that gets overlooked as everyone wants to stack SP against them when they are on the road. This is a good park for Colorado and McMahon has been hot + Story/Blackmon have great history in ‘Zona.
Arizona on the other hand gets Anthony Smellzyalater, so load up on Rockies with David Peralta being the #1 play for ‘Zona.
Chicago Cubs
Rizzo, Bryant, Javy Baez, Matt Duffy *Value*
The Cubs will return the favor tonight on the Braves. Second best park on the slate with Texas roof likely closed and Miller Park roof likely closed as well.
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Daulton Varsho – Chalk lock if he starts
- Dom Nunez
FIRST BASE
- Anthony Rizzo
- Pavin Smith
SECOND BASE
- Chris Taylor
- Nick Solak
- Nico Hornier than a Saints fan thinking about trading a million picks to draft J’Marr Chase…
THIRD BASE
- Ryan McMahon (2B) … Good MPE spot is 3B tonight and McMahon can slide over to 2B. I would not play Colorado without McMahon given how well he is hitting right now…
- Matt Duffy (1B)
- Kris Bryant (OF)
SHORTSTOP
- Trevor Story
- Javy Baez
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Charlie Blackmon
- David Peralta
- Garrett Hampson
- JD Martinez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Raimel Tapia
The Dongers Club
- Ryan McMahon – 2B/3B – Rockies – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies
- Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Cubs
- David Peralta – Of – Diamondbacks
BETS
- Cubs ML
- Rockies / Diamondbacks OVER
- Red Sox / Rangers UNDER
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Arizona
- LA Dodgers
- Atlanta
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP
- Chicago Cubs
Teams with the highest amount of leverage (given that it’s a short 4 game slate)
- Colorado
- Texas
- Milwaukee