Another Testify Friday ladies and gentlemen and only two of these really left before the focus is all on Football when it comes to a Friday. None the less, we will enjoy this full 15 game slate tonight before mother nature tries to disrupt some spots on the schedule — including two of the higher priced pitchers tonight.
WEATHER
Tampa at Baltimore – Storms could disrupt the Rays party in Camden Yards
Arizona at Philadelphia – Storms/Rain chance here as well
Milwaukee at Minnesota – Storms/Rain
Washington at New York – Storms/Rain
All in all, I expect each game to play, but there is some risk to monitor.
AARON NOLA
The cost on Nola tonight is justified as a top end Starting Pitcher. He’s at home, where we are much more comfortable using Nola given his better home/road splits in that setting and he’s getting an Arizona lineup which is due for one of their goose egg type games. Nola should be on his game tonight to give an 8+ strikeout performance over 7 innings.
STEVEN MATZ
I am going back to picking on the Tigers with a lefty. There’s not a ton of good options in the 8-10k range tonight for pitching but Matz, while I don’t have him with a high strikeout projection, should get through the Tigers lineup with a accumulation of outs tonight. Meaning they don’t walk a ton and should generate a ton of ground balls, double plays and relatively stress-free innings for Mr. Matz tonight. He’ll get overlooked against a mediocre Tigers lineup.
Also expect to pitch well
Logan Gilbert & Kris Bubic
Unlike last night I am not looking at a higher scoring game in Seattle today. I think Gilbert should pitch better and his recent struggles haven’t been due to walks which gives me hope he can be efficient and have a good bounce back game today. He’s the preferred value but Bubic does seem to have turned the corner and should be equal to the task tonight.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Cesar/Moncada, Abreu, Eloy/Robert
Back home for a little South Side city competition with the Cubbies today and Keegan Thompson is just a two pitch guy. He should not be able to get through a good White Sox lineup that either way will have Moncada or Cesar Hernandez batting second tonight and you’ll want whichever guy is there — because Jose Abreu is knocking them in twice.
Also Yasmani Grandal returns tonight, which is a huge boost for this lineup.
TAMPA RAYS
Zunino and Lowe
Rain/storms might linger around here but it’s worth taking a big gamble on a couple key Tampa hitters. We’ll want to remember the golden rule of good teams coming into Camden Yards and that is on a weekend series everyone is going to get theirs at some point and if you can nail Friday you’ll nail it the whole weekend. For me, I see Brandon Lowe and Mike Zunino as the two must own Rays tonight.
Other top picks
- Red Sox: Lineup should have lots of long innings and dont overlook the LiC.
- Braves: Sleeper team tonight against Kevin Gausman.
- Cardinals: They look as good tonight vs Dillon Peters as the Giants did vs the Mets the other night. Should be another high scoring game but heavy on the Cardinals side today.
Avoids
- Dodgers
- Padres
CATCHER
- Robinson Chirinos
- Yasmani Grandal
- Mike Zunino
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Freddie Freeman – Better FD play considering he is … $6200?!?!! on DK? What does the genius algo know. Against Gausman he shouldnt be that high.
- Miguel Sano
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Cesar Hernandez
- Enrique Hernandez
- Tommy Edman
THIRD BASE
- Nolan
- Raffy Devers … Lefty vs Lefty in Cleveland? Insert Shannon Sharp “That Aint No Problem” dot GIF please
- Yoan Moncada
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Willy Adames
- Wander Franco
- Jorge Polanco – $3900 too cheap for him. Great value here.
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Avisail Garcia
- Teoscar Hernandez
- J.D. Martinez
- Luis Robert
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Tyler O’Neill
- Austin Meadows
- Eloy Jimenez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Joc Pederson
- Dylan Carlson
- Tyler Naquin – $2700 you can do much worse than this. Should get you 7-9 DK points easily.
The Dongers Club
It’s a pricey night in the Dongers Club, sorry, that’s just how it appears…
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Robinson Chirinos – C – Cubs
- Avisail Garcia – OF – Brewers
- JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- Joc Pederson – OF – Braves
- BONUS ………………….. Yasmani Grandal – C – White Sox
BETS
- Giants/Braves OVER 8.5 — Favorite bet tonight
- Diamondbacks/Phillies UNDER 8.5
- Cardinals/Pirates OVER 9.5
- White Sox/Cubs OVER 9
CHALKIEST STACKS
Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Astros, Padres
GOOD TEAMS GETTING OVERLOOKED
White Sox
BEST LEVERAGE
None