Out of the 15 games tonight the best one by far is the night cap game with the Astros heading to LA to take on the Dodgers for a two game series. We also have the AAA Cubs taking on the AAA Rockies out in Coors Field and naturally they are all priced like Single A players. Horrible job on the pricing as it leads to really bad donkey chalk out there but hopefully the weather comes in and just PPD the game (unlikely).
The Dongers Club End of Season Appreciation Contest will begin Friday. Details on the contest will be announced Thursday. It’s a long contest and you STRONGLY are encouraged to not miss Friday’s contest to be included.
WEATHER
Cubs at Rockies – Rain showers but the game should play
Mid 70’s in most spots.
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler is gonna throw 95+ pitches, rack up 7 strikeouts and get the win today. Lets not over think it too much. Outside of Soto/Bell the Nationals are not going to take a ton of pitches and work the count, and outside of Soto and Bell the Nationals aren’t going to provide power. And outside of Soto, the Nationals don’t have a quality hitter to beat up Wheeler. Just, no…
Dylan Cease
Love Cease tonight, the problem is there’s good value below him who could sneak up as well but he should have a 25% strikeout rate vs the Royals. But if we are just evaluating him (which we should) then I can’t find much at fault with Cease right now. He is coming off six days rest which should help him considering this is about as deep into a season as he has gone.
Kyle Freeland
Not just a leverage play against the cheap and chalky Cubs hitters, but Freeland is someone who can keep the ball down and has had games that mirror tonight where he likely should get 3x and provide a great return.
Also expect to pitch well:
Max Fried
Sean Manaea (SD minus Tatis helps)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Jays need a bounce back win tonight)
Nuggets on others
Luis Gil is starting for the Yankees tonight against Baltimore. He profiles very similarly to Triston McKenzie of the Indians as a slim build with high velocity which he likes to utilize up in the zone. Without question I can see him getting some swing and miss strikeouts against the swing happy Orioles but as usual I do not recommend using rookie pitchers in their debut game.
Taijuan Walker is tonights guy vs the Marlins but he has not been anywhere close to good the second half of the season so far and for that reason
Twins vs Reds
Kepler, Rooker, Polanco … Votto
That sound you hear would be the excitement I have for Max Kepler tonight. The Twins best remaining hitter should once again be leading off where he is far more comfortable and the whole Tyler Mahle being elite thing died long ago. Mahle has given up a ton of HR to righties this season but historically the lefties to me are starting to come back to the norm against him after he had a ridiculous start to the season vs the opposite side. Good weather and Cincinnati mixes into what should be a nice higher scoring game today.
Astros vs Dodgers
Correa, Brantley, Alvarez …. Mookie/Seager
Get your popcorn, get your drinks, get out the lawn chair and turn up the volume for the late night extravaganza in LA. Houston vs LA for two games is going to be all the talk in Baseball circles as we have a couple really good match-ups, temps in the 80’s and teams I think will be sub 5% owned tonight.
Secondary Offenses
I could not identify a single third offense that stood out above the rest, but could see these guys having long innings tonight.
San Francisco … vs Bumgarner and they continue to rake vs LHP
Boston … Biggest sleeping giant out there right now is Boston. Xander’s wrist is showing signs of healing and JD Martinez doesnt stay cold this long.
Tampa … Bounce back game for sure but Yusei Kukuchi and I say Wander Franco
Chi White Sox … Will they get back to dominating LHP soon? Abreu heater is coming.
I am fading Coors personally… The Cubs have someone pitching who is familiar with the field and they still have an adequate bullpen with talented arms in it. And the Cubs side? Very cheap yes, but I’ll take the gamble on not playing bad hitters
CATCHER
As pointed out by Discord, we do have Posey vs Bum tonight, I expect some walks there.
- Gary Sanchez
- Christian Vasquez
- Yan Gomes … Value if he starts
- Elias Diaz … Of the Coors options tonight he is one of the better ones — or any catcher in this game for that matter.
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu … I am going back to the Abreu well. I still believe the signs are there for a break-out week.
- Joey Votto
- Miguel Sano
SECOND BASE
- Cesar Hernandez
- Jorge Polanco
- Wilmer Flores
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm … Hitting much better of late and has hit 2 HR vs Corbin in his career. Corbin relies on his sinker 27% of the time to righties and only gets a 10% strikeout rate on it. While Bohm isn’t hitting for average much, he does have power and a .308 ISO vs LHP Sinkers this season. Really good spot for him to run into a solo HR today.
- Jeimer Candelario
- Patrick Wisdom
SHORTSTOP
Who hits more homers here? Seager or Correa? Honestly, get them both in on FD.
- Corey Seager
- Carlos Correa
- Wander Franco
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Max Kepler … Lock if leading off.
- Jesse Winker
- Yordan Alvarez
- Aaron Judge
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Brent Rooker
- Bryan Reynolds
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Verdugo
- Tyler Naquin
- Michael Brantley
- Manny Margot
The Dongers Club
- Michael Brantley – OF – Astros – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Jesse Winker – OF – Reds
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- Carlos Correa – SS – Astros
- Wilmer Flores – 2B – Giants
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Elias Diaz – C – Rockies
- BONUS ………………… Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees
BETS
- Astros ML
- Astros / Dodgers OVER 8.5
- Twins / Reds OVER 9
- Boston Red Sox ML
- Cubs / Rockies UNDER 11.5
HR Parlay
- Brantley, Kepler, Judge
The Chalkiest Stacks
Coors Field, Yankees
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Astros, Dodgers
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Kyle Freeland
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Wheeler and Cease/Freeland
FAVORITE HITTERS
Brantley, Kepler, Bohm, Abreu