Tonight’s theme on paper looks like a very deep pitching slate and one with tons of value due to young players being called up and performing well along with bad teams in really good hitting environments. So do the math and realize that DraftKings builds should just find that value which is being gifted from the hitting and trust it.
I did not go back to the Houston-Dodgers well but I still believe there are high upside for fireworks in that game. Max Scherzer is making his debut for the Dodgers, and I normally wouldn’t love a pitcher in a new spot in such a big game, but this is Max and he’ll be cursing into his glove against these Astros all night long and certainly strutting. Max without a doubt is your under the radar pitcher today which won’t pop off on anyones data sheet because the Astros don’t strike out. Yes, a homer or two is in play, but Max finishing 6 innings, 10 strikeouts, 3 HR allowed sounds about right there. Meanwhile the Dodgers are the better bats vs Odorizzi, however they dont align with the pay down on hitting strategy today.
Glad we got that whole game out of the way, now for a break down on the Mets vs Marlins…
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and we’re done with that. Onto the slate…
WEATHER
Orioles at Yankees … Very light PPD risk but a chance of a delay or play through rain late in the game.
We are top heavy on pitching choices today and the challenge tonight is more with the hitting than finding the optimal pitchers.
Lucas Giolito
Owns the Royals and they are going to be down another bat with Benintendi likely out for a long time due to a shoulder injury. Giolito did very well vs them last week and once again should pitch good tonight unless the White Sox defense does stupid things to hurt him.
Kevin Gausman
KG will dominate the Diamondbacks the same way Dylan Cease dominated the Royals last night. He put up 27 vs them back in June and had his middle of the road bounce back start last time out leading him into a spot to have a really good outing tonight.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani has done a much better job limiting walks of late with just 1 issued over his last three starts (20 IP) and just 1 HR allowed in that time frame too. Getting Texas tonight is another good spot for him and with Anaheim letting him pitch now we shouldn’t have any concern about a short start.
Risky Value SP’s
Zach Thompson almost made the list as the #3 tonight but for the short length he likely provides, he’s still about 1500 too much on DK. LH bats have been able to square up his fastball and there’s a lot of Mets that could do damage on it tonight.
JC Mejia makes for an interesting leverage play vs a chalky Blue Jays team. Mejia is extremely poor vs lefty batters but has a 30% strikeout rate vs righties and that’s Toronto’s core lineup.
Chicago Cubs
Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom
The Coors Field side tonight to be invest in is the Cubs side. Jon Gray was not traded at the deadline despite rumors and is a well known enough pitchers to keep the Cubs ownership below where it should be for the donkey players today. Well, we’re gonna be donkeys tonight.
Atlanta Braves
Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Jorge Soler
Remember when everyone made fun of Atlanta for not hitting LHP? Well, my oh my how things have changed. The Cardinals tried the ole Jon Lester experiment last night and back it up with the JA Happ experiment tonight. No bueno for the Cardinals fans on this one as they get to watch another homer fest against their new pitcher if things go as planned.
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Elias Diaz
- Kevan Smith
FIRST BASE
- Miguel Cabrera – Needs two for 500 and will hit #499 tonight with #500 tomorrow afternoon in Thursday afternoon Detroit game, there is no other way for Miggy to reach his milestone.
- Jose Abreu
- Josh Bell
- Rhys Hoskins
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- David Bote
- Alcides Escobar
THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Patrick Wisdom
- Kris Bryant
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Dansby Swanson
- Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Because of some extreme value in the OF this time of year, there’s very little reason to come out and be like, yo, gimme all the 5k to 6k guys when the pitching is so rock solid up top. So look to spend down on 2 of your outfield spots today.
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Rafael Ortega – $2500???? What in the world are we doing man. He’s in Coors DK! Cmon.
- Jorge Soler
- Adam Duvall
OUTFIELD – Value
- Corey Dickerson
- Jo Adell – Like Kelenic and many before, this is another example of a highly routed hitting prospect who struggled in his first call up, went back down and now is back up and likely will be much better.
- Alex Verdugo
The Dongers Club
- Miguel Cabrera – 1B – Tigers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Dansby Swanson – SS – Braves
- Patrick Wisdom – 3B – Cubs
- Rafael Ortega – OF – Cubs
- Jo Adell – OF – Angels
- Adam Duvall – OF – Braves
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs
- BONUS …………………. Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
BETS
- White Sox, Mets, Giants Parlay
- Nats/Phillies UNDER 9.5
- Braves/Cardinals OVER 9.0
- Indians/Jays UNDER 9.5
HR Parlay
- Miggy, Ortega, Albies
The Chalkiest Stacks
Yankees, Blue Jays, Braves, Rockies
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Dodgers
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
JC Mejia
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Giolito and Gausman
FAVORITE HITTERS
Miguel Cabrera
Rafael Ortega
Jo Adell