After messing up big time yesterday, FanDuel receives the gold star today for proper slate construction as they have included the 6:35 Nationals-Pirates game and the 6:40 Phillies-Marlins game. Unfortunately, neither site has the Cardinals visiting Miller Park so we will just save that annual stack tradition for tomorrow.
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WEATHER
All clear. Every game should play without any concerns and I expect some roofs to be open tonight
- Phillies at Marlins – Mid 70’s, roof should be open
- Angels at Rangers – Mid 70’s, roof should be open, no major wind warnings
- Only 64 in LA for the Dodgers first home series of the season
- Upper 50’s in Coors Field, cross wind to right field.
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WALKER BUEHLER
The Reds should feature a lineup with more RH than LH bats tonight, which will greatly help Buehler out. He is very consistent with a 28%+ strikeout rate to RH batters, has a very high arsenal rating tonight vs the Reds lineup and is about as consistent as they come when at home in Dodger Stadium
JOE MUSGROVE
The price on Musgrove on DK should make him a little chalky at just $7,600 so there’s a strong case to be made for Charlie Morton in the same game at likely lower ownership given his price tag but Musgrove is a solid PETCO Park pitcher and Atlanta’s not clicking every game right now so they’re very boom or bust and I’ll err on the side of lots of bust in their first road trip.
LUIS SEVERINO
This is my wild card pick tonight. Toronto got a 3 HR game from Who’s your Vladdy last night but lost Teoscar Hernandez in the process and this is still a lineup that can have a high strikeout game when faced with a talented arm.
Sevy historically was really dominant vs RH bats as well and that’s pretty much the entire build of this Toronto lineup. He should remain limited on pitch count but makes for a nice SP2 on DraftKings given that nobody else will throw more than 90-95 pitches, so his price discount takes into account the pitch difference from everyone else. He is safe to use.
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I expect Kyle Gibson (FD), Sandy Alcantara (FD), Casey Mize, Charlie Morton and Kevin Gausman to all pitch “well” but not into the “well” category of the above three.
The pitching is dominating this slate tonight, so we want to try and see if there is a ‘weakest’ link to target or if there is a good pitcher who is likely going to be off that we can pick on while trying to avoid stacking the Pirates two days in a row.
ROCKIES
Cron, Joe, Bryant, Rodgers, Grichuk
Going straight to the donkey spot that is Coors Field might feel gross, but Justin Steele should not be someone that strings together multiple consecutive good starts like he had in his first game vs the Brewers. Connor Joe and CJ Cron are both hitting well and Bryant/Rodgers grade very well here. It’s either the core guys doing the damage or Randal Grichuk has one of his two HR games carrying the entire slate.
Of course Grichuk isn’t in the lineup now. Just wanted to keep that note in there when he comes in off the bench for some stupid reason.
RANGERS
Seager, Miller, Garver, Kole Calhoun
Put this one down in the category of picking on a good pitcher who has an off night. It stinks that we can’t use Ohtani’s bat today since he won’t have to leave the game from that angle but he has struggled historically with command away from Anaheim, plus this new revamped Rangers lineup offers plenty of upside compared to prior years. Expect an Ambush from the Rangers.
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CATCHERS
- Elias Diaz
- Will Smith
- Mitch Garver
FIRST BASE
- CJ Cron
- Josh Bell – Returns to LiPNC on FanDuel
- Jared Walsh
SECOND BASE
- Brendan Rodgers
- Chris Taylor (Value) or Trea Turner
- Mike Moustakas – Hometown narrative all weekend.
THIRD BASE
- Brad Miller
- Kris Bryant
- Josh Donaldson
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Bobby Witt Jr … Young vs Young … Hitter always wins
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
If you are using the Dashboard, you will see that the top 3 here are the top 3 on the Dashboard. I love when the model that I built with my brain aligns with my brain assessing the slate. More so though this is Data + Instincts coming together.
- Austin Meadows
- Bryan Reynolds
- Juan Soto
- Andrew Benintendi … Late addition to the Mt. Rushmore since Grichuk is out I had to find another douche to put in here.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Marcell PETC-Ozuna
- Aaron Judge
- Mike Trout
OUTFIELD – Value
- Connor Joe
- Kole Calhoun
- Jesus Sanchez – FD
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THE DONGERS CLUB
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates – Yesterday’s Chairman
- Josh Bell – 1B – Nationals
- Kris Bryant – 3B – Rockies
- Chris Taylor – 2B – Dodgers
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Austin Meadows – OF – Tigers
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- BONUS ……………………………………………… Mike Moustakas – Reds
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Three Entry Max Starting Points …
We are far more likely to mess up on hitting than pitching today, so diversify your hitting CORE builds
- SP: Buehler = 100%, Severino = 66%, Musgrove/Morton = 33%
- Rockies Stack
- Rangers Stack
- Tigers Stack
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs
Chalk SP or Teams I would not use
- Not a big fan of the Cubs offense today
Best Leverage / Pivots
- Kyle Freeland vs Cubs Chalk
- Texas Rangers Stack
Favorite Bets
- Rockies ML (-123)
- Rangers ML (+128)
- Parlay: Yankees (-136) + Marlins (-115)
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