There has been a lot made recently about a report from The Athletic which went into some detail on the new Humidors around Baseball and also the admission that Baseball has been tinkering with different Baseballs. The long and short of that is that it just confirms what we already knew on both fronts. First that there is a new dead ball which they sometimes used previously and are using more this year and second that they turned up the humidor settings too much in the new ballparks. All this equates to the ball traveling less farther because of a drag the seams have on the ball and thus less homers. Should this help line drive and ground ball hitters more than fly ball hitters? Possibly, but I wouldn’t over think that too much just yet. What is debatable is if this changes in the summer months as they hope it will and if we see a spike then in home runs. Mets SP Chris Bassitt came out with last night, saying basically that pitchers are tired of having a new ball every inning and the grip being unpredictable. I am 100% with him on this and I think we need to keep our eyes and ears out for what is going on because Baseball has a history of just quietly swapping out certain balls with other ones to shift the focus away from what ever it is they are doing. But there is more. The pitchers these days are the ones who dominate the analytics, not hitters. Pitchers are far more aware of not only their strengths and weaknesses but more importantly the hitters strengths and weaknesses. Pitchers are becoming far more robots — especially the bullpen guys — as they utilize the analytics and the ability for coaches to call the pitches with the PitchCom much quicker is allowing them to execute a specific approach on each hitter. The batters will need to adjust, that is the bottom line. We could see the league claim supply chain issues and swap the balls out again and we for sure will have teams who are changing around their own humidor settings, but what is going to change the game and offense the most at this point is going to be the hitters adjusting to the pitchers approach and being happy with opposite field singles and walks over aiming for home runs. In short. Everyone who has prioritized Exit Velocity and Launch Angle for DFS Metrics is living in the past already and they might get saved a little bit when it warms up but in the long run the hitters have to change to catch-up to the new era of Pitching Analytics, a deader baseball and coming soon, a faster pace of play meaning the pitchers will be going off data more frequently than just going off what pitch feels good to them that day and in the end, this will turn to hitters knowing what is coming — and they won’t need a trash can to tell them.
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WEATHER
All games tonight will play and with the Dew Point having such a big impact on Baseball distance this year I want to point out the best and worst Dew Point spots tonight Worst: Det @ Min, Bal @ NYY (But the short porch off sets a lot of this) and Mia @ Wash Best: CHC @ Atl and Oak @ SF
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JOE RYAN
I feel like we are really getting to know our new friend here Mr. Joe Ryan and the model absolutely loves him just as much as I do tonight. Great pitching environment in chilly Target Field along with a RH core lineup is favorable for Ryan who is 35-40% K rate against RHH and gives up almost no hard hit results to RHH. If Ryan can continue to expand and improve his Changeup more in the future I think he can definitely become a very good pitcher and that’s the one pitch which could give him damage today but it wont result in homers.
PABLO LOPEZ
Lopez is coming off a gem in terms of his fantasy results but his stuff has been excellent all year. Against San Francisco, Philly and St. Louis Lopez has generated 30 swinging strikes and is more than ramped up throwing 100 pitches last outing. Today he gets Juan Soto and his traveling band of insurance salesman, so lets load up on Pablo-Pablo…
SHOHEI OHTANI
Shohei is near dominant at home as a pitcher and his velocity should be enough to give him 7 strikeout potential against a pesky but slowing down Guardians offense.
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Possible Sleeper – Charlie Morton
Grandpa Chuck has had a rough first few starts in 2022, signalling many to wonder if father time has caught up with him after an injury ended his World Series/Playoff run last year. I think he has more in the tank and the Cubs are starting to swing & miss more. This is a big test to see if Morton can get right and probably comes in a little lesser owned than he should tonight.
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For once this season there are a ton of spots that I would look to consider today.
GIANTS
Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Luis Gonzalez A very sneaky weather spot tonight is San Francisco, where we’ll put the leagues theory on the humidor to the test as they try to boost offense in lesser parks down the line. I also for one do not believe that the Paul Blackburn experience can continue with a .352 SLG to LHB and .524 SLG to RHB. He will get hit by Crawford today.
BRAVES
Albies, Olson, Riley Look for Atlanta to get to Leiter the second time through the order today. The Cubs young SP has shown he will throw the kitchen sink of pitches at batters but once they see him a first time they should do damage the second time through. This makes Albies-Olson-Riley the preferable stack.
ORIOLES
Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle Going opposite of the team who went off last night with a few RH Orioles to take Jordan Montgomery deep
RED SOX
Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez Welcome to the 2022 season Rafael Devers, we have been awaiting your arrival.
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CATCHER
- Robinson Chirinos
- Joey Bart
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Brandon Belt
- Jared Walsh
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Brandon Crawford
- Xander Bogaerts
- Corey Seager – Cheap on FD, that’s it.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Trey Mancini
- Alex Verdugo
- Enrique Hernandez
- Mike Trout — Is anyone playing better than Mike Trout despite the ball being dead? I didn’t think so.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Probably one of the stupid Braves OF, good luck picking the right one.
- Joc Jamz
- Kyle Tucker
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun
- Seth Brown
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- Brandon Crawford – SS – Giants – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Trey Mancini – OF – Orioles
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Seth Brown – OF – Athletics
- Joey Bart – C – Giants
- Alex Verdugo – OF – Red Sox
- BONUS ………………. X gonna give it to ya – Red Sox
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Core Plays
I am fine with any 2 of the 3 pitchers I mentioned above and will be mixing and matching them around. Boston is my favorite “full” team stack out of the teams mentioned above Brandon Crawford, Trey Mancini being the two guys I really like the most overall.
Expected Chalk
Yankees, Braves, Blue Jays, Hou/Tex
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Boston Red Sox San Francisco Giants
Best Leverage / Pivots
The Houston/Texas game did not jump out at me today, I can see it being a popular ‘gamestack’ and one to ignore.
Favorite Bets
Hump Day Parlay (+256)
- Boston Red Sox Team Total OVER 3.5
- Marlins/Nationals Under 9.5
- San Francisco Giants -169
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