I am a little disappointed that I didn’t ride on the Orioles harder last night as they’re a team who I have liked going into Seattle and for some reason there was George Kirby chalk which is just hilarious. Granted, some of us backed the White Sox to win a game, which is equally hilarious.
Today we move forward with 15 games on the MAIN slate(s) and one of those is G2 of a double header between the Twins and Guardians. Hopefully in the two games today if the Twins score 11 runs again they can get more than 0-12 out of Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler.
Over the years I have been stubborn about being a one lineup guy, because it is what I am better at. But tonight is most definitely a slate to mix and match things up with 3-5 lineups as it’s very evenly spread out.
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WEATHER
12 MPH Winds out with 80 degree temps for Reds vs Cubs in Wrigley.
Looks like we have no storms which means no PPD risk today.
Of note, I heard over the weekend that the Chase Field Roof has been transferred to the 60-day IL with an injured cable. Obviously it was not going to be open for July-August games but this is a bummer come late September when Arizona has a home game on a Saturday night and the whole world is throwing money at some stupid Astros stack against a short pitcher trying to double down their NFL money and we scoop in with a Chase Field stack. Oh well.
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We have Tarik Skubal, Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodon all pitching on this slate tonight, so insert the Spider-Man pointing Meme.
I have been playing FanDuel for a long time and on a 15 game slate when there are a high number of good SP options out there you will easily find enough value hitters that fit in around them to take their 8-10 strike-out performance to the top. So don’t be a sheep and think “oh, I can go cheap SP and pay for the bats” because there’s PLENTY of value out there.
Yes, we can make a similar case on DraftKings but finding a second pitcher who is a mid-range value is worth it tonight.
CARLOS RODON
The better of the three lefties and it doesn’t hurt that he is facing the Detroit Tigers at home. Basically there is one massive stick which has been a thorn in my side that could be a thorn in his side tonight and that would be Javier Baez. Otherwise this is a lineup Rodon is going to likely give you 7+ innings against.
ZACK WHEELER
I am getting the sense that there’s going to be a good amount of entries that look at Charlie Morton who has pitched better of late and gets a Harper-less Phillies team returning home. Yes, that’s fine and good but Wheeler should strike out more Braves tonight. TDA is a major threat and probably takes him deep but Wheeler is also likely to be on point in a park that has played fantastic for strikeouts all season long. I trust him more than Morton.
ZAC GALLEN
I assume Machado is going to be back, but there’s 9 guys in a MLB lineup and Gallen is good at home, gets plenty of ground balls and should have a back to back good outing after a rough patch.
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Dark Horses …
Patrick Corbin
Look, I don’t make the rules okay pal. But Patrick Corbin is going to shut down the Pirates tonight and that’s just how it goes, alright.
J.P. Sears
Not much of a Dark Horse because a Yankee cheap pitcher vs the Athletics is likely to be at the top of the donkey’s lists tonight. Somewhere I am sure there is a tout site asking its 50 experts who their favorite cheap arm is and they’re all making horrible Sears Department store jokes.
We generally don’t use rookie pitchers making debuts but he isn’t making his debut here. He has faced Baltimore twice this year and the lefty is likely to give them 5+ here tonight against a bad Oakland offense.
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Quick Notes
Frankie Montas is pitching in Yankee Stadium. Is there an over/under on how many times he tries to walk off the field towards the Yankee dugout after an inning in hopes that nobody will notice?
The Royals win tonight behind good hitting and a quality start from Jonathan Heasley, who serves up a Kole Calhoun SOLO HR and then settles in.
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Honestly this is the slate where you want to prioritize your top pitching and then find the top rated players at each position and build that way. So yeah, its a nice multi-lineup slate but one which I think plays out like 3-3-2 and building around the core hitters more than specific teams.
BLUE JAYS vs RED SOX
Dear Michael Wacha and Ross Stripling….
This is typically a series where both road teams do well in and Boston against the Stripper is a terrific spot to go heavy on.
Xander Bogaerts is long overdue for a homer, as is JD Martinez. So even without Jaren Duran they should put up a good amount of offense and get back on a winning streak tonight.
Dont sleep on Toronto either.
REDS vs CUBS
India, Pham, Almora, Votto … Morel, Contreras, Happ
Two bad bullpens with warm and windy conditions in Wrigley. I can see Castillo having a good strikeout game but allowing 2-3 homers as well while Keegan Thompson likely tries his best to match that. Cincy is not what they were in April and can be used offensively vs bad pitching and while Thompson isnt horrible, he does give up a good amount of RHB homers.
MARLINS (vs Cardinals)
Betting, Chisholm, Cooper, Soler, Sanchez
Dakota Hudson had his way with the other team from Florida shutting down the Rays a few weeks back. But Miami is a much better low ball hitting team. Jazz, cooper, Soler get this train going tonight.
ROYALS
Merrifield, Benintendi, Witt Jr, Pasuqantino
Everyone welcome the Italian Monarch, Vinnie Pasquantino to the show for the Royals and he is min price on DK which fits in well in a stack for Kansas City and high pitching. But the focus here is that the Rangers are dead last in SB allowed and it appers Whit Merrifield has not taken too kindly to me benching him in my dynasty league. He is looking very good right now as is Benitendi and obviously Bobby Witt.
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Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Will Smith, Evan Longoria, Diego Castillo, Javier Baez, Darin Ruf, Albert Pujols, Julio Rodriguez (5.9k!), Kyle Farmer, Albert Almora Jr, Jonathan India
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CATCHER
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Willson Contreras
- Christian Vasquez
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FIRST BASE
If the Italian Monarch (Because he went to ODUh) was a slap hitter I would say dont worry but he is a power arm against a RHP who gives up power to lefties. So he is not bad for 2k on DraftKings. You wont find him on FanDuel. You have a better chance at finding them with a dark mode for anyone.
- Vinnie Pasquantino – DK Min Price
- Joey Votto
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
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SECOND BASE
Is Trevor Story going to homer tonight? Signs point to possibly. It’s that or nothing for him, so for comparisons sake India is a better value play all around but Story has the higher upside.
- Trevor Story
- Jonathan India
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
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THIRD BASE
This is the shortest position on the slate. I like Devers but its gotta be in a stack and Yoan Moncada is back and is a sneaky under the radar HR pick for me tonight for just 2.5k
- Rafael Devers
- Yoan Moncada
- Brian Anderson
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SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Xander Bogaerts
- Corey Seager
- Trea Turner
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
A good set of options here in the OF Today.
Nelson Cruz has decided its time to showcase himself for trade suitors and is turning it on while Springer and JD are two top guys from core teams. Whit needs the steals but I think he can get on and vs a RHP should steal twice.
- Nelson Cruz
- George Springer
- JD Martinez
- Whit Merrifield
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Shohei Ohtani
- Alex Verdugo
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Thomas Pham
- Andrew Benintendi
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun
- Jorge Soler
- Albert Almora Jr
- Ian Happ
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The Dongers Club
- Nelson Cruz – OF – Nationals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox
- Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
- Kole Calhoun – OF – Rangers
- Vlad Guerrero JR – 1B – Blue Jays
- Jonathan India – 2B – Reds
- Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox
- BONUS …………………….. Jorge Soler – OF – Marlins
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CORE PLAYS
Spend up on pitching on FanDuel and at least 1 SP on DraftKings. Primary lineup should have 2 pitchers who are GREEN on the dashboard
Favorite 3 hitters below 4k on DK: Moncada, Benintendi, Pasquantino
Favorite 3 hitters above 5k on DK: Bogaerts, Martinez, Vlad Jr
Favorite 3 hitters 4k to 5k on DK (This is the dead range, why DK pricing sucks non-binary donkey nuts): India, Merrifield and I’ll cheat and say Nelson Cruz (3.9k)
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BETTING PLAYS
Yankees -196 ML
Nationals -120 ML
Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9
NY Mets ML +104
Royals ML +129
Dodgers ML
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