Good morning, time to wake up and play some MLB DFS/Betting action on this comfortable Summer Sunday. Continuing with the trend in 2022 FanDuel has acquired off waivers the Texas and Colorado home games from DraftKings as they’ve included them into an 11 game main slate today and DraftKings has not.
The Sunday slate also once again now locks at 1:35 PM as MLB has this early 11 am game which is going to fight the trend of overs on those games because neither team is likely gonna score 5 runs in my mind.
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WEATHER
All games should get in today. Warm out in Coors for those of you on FanDuel as I expect that game to finally have some offense in it once again after back to back extra inning games which were low scoring.
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You are going to wind up paying for pitching on DraftKings today because you literally have no choice.
The cheapest pitchers are Zach Plesac at $5,000, Patrick Corbin at $5,200, Dean Kremer at $5,500, Braxton Garrett at $6,200 and then Ryan Yarbrough at $6,800. Not a lot of options honestly here as a ton of guys are in the 7k-9k range. Heck, even Jake Junis is $8,500.
KEVIN GAUSMAN
I’m normally one to like the over in Blue Jays weekend games, but not today. I think we get a quiet game after some higher scoring games to start this series and Gausman should be able to rack up strike outs off the 4-9 hitters in the Twins lineup.
Yes, the Twins have HR upside (mostly Buxton who is resting today) as they’ve shown all series but Gausman is likely going to have 8 strikeouts when this game is over so he will accrue enough damage to justify him — even if the model doesn’t love him today.
The model had him around 7th or so on SP and with the lineup posted he is now #1. Hooray model automation!
LUCAS GIOLITO
Everything with Giolito is always about hitting his spots. But this Tampa lineup is so cold that I think if he misses his spots slightly he can still get away with things and there is tremendous upside vs the Wander Franco-less Rays. The only Rays projected hitters with an ISO above .150 vs Sliders are Taylor Walls and Isaac Paredes. Neither of which should scare us off Giolito.
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… BIG GAP …
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I don’t like any of the cheap guys, however here are my quick thoughts on viable SP3’s today.
Zach Plesac … is not good but the one hitter I didn’t want him to face is Cedric Mullins who isnt playing. I think Plesac pitches well and for $5k won’t burn you but also wont match the top guys obviously.
Kyle Gibson … is facing an ice cold Angels lineup that will strike out enough to let him I think he gives up a HR to Trout in this game, maybe one to Walsh as well, but he should have 5+ strikeouts too.
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SUNDAY SLEEPER
PATRICK SANDOVAL – Angels
It’s going to feel very comfortable in Philadelphia today. A low dew point for this time of year and the Phillies pitch splits against LH sliders are very favorable for a strike out boost for Sandoval.
He got hit hard by the Blue Jays in his last start but the Jays are hot and the Phillies had their little back to back wins after firing Joe Girardi and this is a get right spot finally for the Angels to get a win at the end of this miserable road trip.
Sandoval is their most likely path to do that and the only Phillie who I see touching him up is the ice cold Alec Bohm.
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It’s definitely a slate which has spread out options but worthy of having 1 primary stack in each lineup on DraftKings. Pricing on hitting is favorable for that as it seems DK is letting folks stack more these days with cheaper hitters.
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DIAMONDBACKS
David Peralta, Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho, Ketel Marte
Attach the Zach. He is up and down and this should be a down spot where the Diamondbacks can put the ball in play a ton. You can do one of two things here, watch the Pirates game on TV live or do the logical thing and just open the MLB app on your phone to check in on things. Assuming you aren’t depressed you will pick the app route and when doing so, we want to see the yellow bases with 0 outs in the top of the first as David Peralta steps to the plate for a bases clearing double.
REDS
Nick Senzel, Brandon Drury, Thomas Pham, Tyler Stephenson
I wasn’t expecting Pham back at #3 hole but I love that and that’s going to be the key to them smacking Corbin out of this game early. We have the best weather conditions on the slate and in the smallest park on the slate here too.
COORS FIELD (FANDUEL)
Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson … Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk
After back to back extra inning games which were 0-0 and 1-1 going into extras we should see a boost in Coors Field today. The Rockies bullpen is absolutely spent but I’m also hesitant to just auto lock the Braves to sweep in a get away game before going back home to Atlanta. Don’t look for a full stack here on FD but a nice 2&2 spot.
ASTROS
Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
Another game with a high dew point and a bad pitcher going. The Royals Jon Heasley is an easy target today for those who want to stack the team that stunk yesterday. I will mostly just focus on Kyle Tucker or Jose Altuve personally.
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MARLINS
Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez, Jazz Chisholm and why is Jorge Soler $6,100????
It’s rare that one comes on here and recommends South Beach on a Sunday, but we’re very curious about the roof down there in Miami. Here’s the deal with the roof in day games in Miami. You might think it helps hitting but it actually has been a big complaint for hitters that it’s too bright on Sunday’s down there when the roof is open.
Now look, we know the real story with the road teams is that they’re hungover and don’t want the bright lights, but none the less I don’t mind the roof being closed in Miami because the air from the outside conditions should still filter through open panels and stuff and the DewPoint rating here
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Today’s BOOST+ players: Half the Braves Players, Curt Casali, Byron Buxton, Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Nick Senzel, Rhys Hoskins, Jesus Sanchez, Kyle Farmer, Oscar Gonzalez, Matt Reynolds, Cedric Mullins, Jazz-Jazz-Jazz, Tyler Stephenson
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CATCHER
Mr. Tyler Stephenson should be the highest owned catcher on this slate on DK. Corbin’s xSLG vs RHB is .519 and Stephenson figures to come up with lots of men on base today.
- Tyler Stephenson
- Austin Nola
- Jose Herrera
FIRST BASE
NOTE: Matt Olson on FanDuel is the top play at this position. DraftKings continues to just let you have a not hot Vlad Guerrero Jr for $4500 so it’s hard to pass on him outside of stacks but there are two one off players on cold teams who I could see having a big hit today in Walsh and Tellez. This is a deep position.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – Remains a bargain on DK. The combination of Vlad & Teoscar is the two Jays I like today and that’s it.
- Jared Walsh
- Jesus Aguilar
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Jazz Chisholm
- Ketel Marte
THIRD BASE
- Manny Machado
- Josh Rojas
- Maikel Franco
SHORTSTOP
One of the least talked about things is how SS has become a wasteland in DFS because of who is and isn’t on certain slates. Today is no different on DraftKings which does not have the top SS on the board (and arguably my favorite play overall) in Corey Seager. So outside of Kyle Framer I see nobody to bother paying for here and who wants to pay for Kyle Farmer???
Note: I had Danny Mendick wrote up here when I thought he was going to be batting 9th. He’s now leading off. So let’s just do the Danny Mendick day and not talk about it.
- Danny Mendick
- Diego Castillo
- Luis Urias
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Outfield is the best and deepest position on this slate. There’s a ton of value options here and players who are likely to hit HR today. Picking just four guys for Mt. Rushmore was challenging.
- Jesus Sanchez
- Nick Senzel – His value makes him a strong core play.
- Teoscar Hernandez – I kind of want to use Teoscar over Vladdy today. He is white hot and in their home stand has 10 hits, 4 doubles a triple and a homer. The multi-homer game is coming for Teoscar and Smeltzer is gonna realize he isn’t facing the Royals at some point in this game.
- David Peralta
FD Only: Ozuna, Grichuk
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mike Trout
- Kyle Tucker
- Sir Thomas Pham
- Juan Soto
OUTFIELD – Value
- Oscar Gonzalez
- Pavin Smith
- Kevin Kiermaier
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I like a lot of one off homers today to pair with keep the line moving stacks.
- Jesus Sanchez – OF – Marlins – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Mike Trout – OF – Angels
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Tyler Stephenson – C – Reds
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- BONUS …………………. Thomas Pham – OF – Reds
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CORE BUILD
There are a ton of options in the OF today, so the best way to build out a CORE is focusing on your infield top guys that are the best + price considered
Kevin Gausman
C – Tyler Stephenson
SS – Danny Mendick
3B – Manny Machado
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OWNERSHIP THOUGHTS
Without Buxton Gausman should be the highest owned SP with Giolito behind him on DK. Those are solid options today so not a ton of leverage up top. Gibson is a mid range popular play, as is Castillo given his recent performance and I am not touching either. Mike Trout vs Gibson is a negative first inning start for Gibby.
Good pitchers low owned: Sandoval, Valdez
Low owned offenses with upside: Marlins, White Sox
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BETTING PLAYS
Guardians/Orioles UNDER 9.5
Nationals/Reds OVER 9.5
Angels ML
Diamondbacks ML
Marlins ML
ML Parlay: Astros ML + Brewers ML + Diamondbacks ML
HR Parlay: Sanchez + Seager + Trout + Machado + Grichuk
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