DAILY-AMBUSH · May 4, 2022

The Dongers Club – May 4th Early

With two games being rained out yesterday I was worried we would have a jumbled DFS slate today between FanDuel and DraftKings.  Much to our satisfaction we have site synchronicity with 6 game early slates, including the Pirates-Tigers first game of their doubleheader today from Detroit.

Except, we don’t have site synchonricity.

Yes, you will see Seattle vs Houston listed on FanDuel and 6 games listed.  In fact, they sent an API feed out to some with pricing for players in that game but it’s not listed on the Early Slate contests, so you really cant pick them.  Unless of course they randomly decide to add them just an hour or two before lock.

What a bunch of idiots.

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WEATHER

But of course as expected this week we have some rain concerns once again today.  The Cardinals and Royals are playing for the final meeting this year and I really think they will manage to work to get this game in as they moved it up to 1:10 PM EST already so I expect they get it done and over with quickly.  Unfortunately Kris Bubic is pitching so that might not go so fast.

The other light rain spot is the Braves and Mets and obviously those teams will meet again later in the year in New York and are coming off a double-header yesterday.  I don’t think the rain will be strong enough to push this one out but I also dont think anyone will give two craps about playing in it.

All in all, I expect that all 6 games play.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Here are the expected starters in the double header games on the early slate.  These sometimes change last minute with the double header games so I wanted you to know who I anticipate is pitching in those games as I did my article.

  • Game 1 Starters (On this slate):
    • Clevinger (SD) vs Plesac (CLE)
    • Peters (PIT) vs Pineda (DET)
  • Game 2 Starters (Not on this slate):
    • Gore (SD) vs Quantrill (CLE)
    • Quintana (PIT) vs Faedo (DET)

Sorry….  You won’t be able to add Alex Faedo to the list of pitchers who you stacked against and got 4 zero’s, at least not today….

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JUSTIN VERLANDER

70-80% ownership likely for Verlander as the Mariners decided that they would no longer hit the Baseballs once we started using them.  He dominated them earlier this year, he should dominate them here again today and on DK we’ll take his 25+ point floor and hope he at worst gives up a SOLO HR to Jesse Winker.

ELIESER HERNANDEZ

A little mid-week South Beach Theory?  Arizona cannot stay this good early in games, they just cannot.  The perception is that Arizona is hitting but they’re really only doing the damage early in games vs the Marlins and in a get away game at the end of their road trip I believe they will go out quiet.

IAN ANDERSON

I think the whole world is going to rush to Tylor Megill but Ian Anderson is just as good of an option.  This game will go under and there are less danger spots on the Mets today in my mind for Anderson than Megill has on the Braves

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SAN DIEGO

Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar

Crazy how the price on Profar has come down but on Hosmer it did not.  Hosmer is my favorite play on this stack though so I wouldn’t skip over him and Cronenworth for 4800 if he is batting 2nd ahead of Manny is a must own here as well.

CLEVELAND

Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez

Not only do you have a team facing a SP who used to play for them (which is usually good) but you have Franmil against his former team if you are into all the narratives.

PITTSBURGH

Bryan Reynolds, Diego Castillo, KeBryan Hayes

Wind is blowing out in Detroit, so there’s logic to picking up guys from both ends in this game.  The Pirates, yes, those Pirates, grade out well against Pineda and are the right cheap set of hitters to lock in JV.

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CATCHER

  1. Jacob Stallings
  2. Austin Hedges

FIRST BASE

  1. Eric Hosmer
  2. Matt Olson

SECOND BASE

  1. Jake Cronenworth
  2. Ozzie Albies

THIRD BASE

While I don’t obviously think Anderson/Witt are above Ramirez their price is what puts them there, both are among my top cheap bats to look at today.

  1. Brian Anderson
  2. Bobby Witt Jr
  3. Jose Ramirez

SHORTSTOP

  1. Diego Castillo
  2. Dansby Swanson

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

  1. Steven Kwan
  2. Bryan Reynolds
  3. Franmil Reyes
  4. Jorge Soler

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  1. Eric Hosmer – 1B – Padres – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Franmil Reyes – OF – Guardians of the Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame
  3. Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pittsburgh
  4. Dansby Swanson – SS – Atlanta

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Core Plays

  • Verlander, Hernandez
  • Hosmer, Reynolds, Swanson

Expected Chalk

  • Verlander & Megill
  • Houston Astros Hitters – Fade
  • Cardinals – Fade

Best Low Owned Offense(s)

  • San Diego
  • Detroit/Pittsburgh

Favorite Bets

  • Cardinals/Royals UNDER 7.5
  • Atlanta Braves ML
  • Pirates/Tigers OVER 7.5

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