A full slate with no day games and no major weather issues today. But more drama coming out related to the grips on Baseball’s and one thing we saw last night is another high end pitcher (Glasnow) suddenly come down with an arm injury and I fear we are going to see more and more of this.
As you read below I spread out the hitting options across a few CORE games, if you are building a second and third lineup spread out your hitting ownership and stick to the CORE pitcher(s).
WEATHER
Good weather everywhere tonight.
Out of 30 probable pitchers tonight, there is only ONE pitcher who is above 10k on both FanDuel and DraftKings — in fact, he is the only one on either site who is five figures today and that pitcher is Trevor Rogers of the Miami Marlins. Not since Jose Fernandez have we been able to say the highest priced pitcher on a full Tuesday slate is a Marlin.
Yu Darvish
Play Darvish, even in Coors Field tonight. First off, he isn’t someone we are at all concerned with in regards to his pitch grip and second off the Rockies despite being in Coors are still a bad offense that will not hit really good pitching – which is the case tonight. Using his pitch type and usage he should still rate over 20% strikeouts and push past 6 innings of pitching tonight, given that he is under 10k he is very affordable as well and should be SP1 everywhere.
Taijuan Walker
The Cubs have not hit much away from Wrigley Field this season and this isn’t exactly a great ballpark for them to go into either as was evidence last night. Taijuan has thrown 93 and 104 pitchers in his last two starts, which is a very encouraging sign going into tonight and I have the Cubs offense with a weighted pitchtype xwOBA right at .300, one of the lowest on the slate.
Andrew Heaney & Frankie Montas
I really like both these guys tonight and am going on the side that both will pitch another quality game today. If you are into hedge lineup building then this is the spot to do it with tonight as one lineup has a game stack of both and the other stacks the offense up. The good for Frankie Montas right now is that the top of the Angels order is where it all starts and ends with Upton-Ohtani-Rendon being three guys I like his profile against and if he can get past those three then it should be smooth sailing to a 6 inning, 9 strikeout day. Heaney is the one I would go with if only picking one, because as is common with Heaney he dominates when he is low owned and sucks when he is chalk — and he will be very low owned this evening. Heaney has great history vs Oakland and he is doing extremely well this year against RHB which Oakland is going to be very heavy with today.
All four of the guys above are in play on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight
Couple different categories on hitting tonight. There are my CORE teams which are listed below and then below them are the 5-MAN type upside STACKS which you would basically be going all in with. Certainly could use any of these builds for a Single Entry today, but my personal route is to build using the CORE teams for my main lineup and then throw in 2-3 additional lineups that would build off the 5-man stacks.
These three teams are my CORE teams to build around today
REDS
Eugenio Suarez, Castellanos, Votto, Bottom of the order value like Kyle Farmer
Hop right on back into the Miller Park (*or whatever its called now*) experience and slide on down as we have another over tonight with Brett Anderson facing Luis Castillo. Cincinnati is going to put a ton of ducks on the pond once again the question is which inning do we get the Suarez HR and which inning do we get the Castellanos HR. Expect both sides to have a good game here.
PADRES
Trent Grisham, Thomas Pham, Myers, Caratini
San Diego getting shut down by Austin Gomber was something which was not shocking if you remove the elements they were playing in. San Diego however could face Chi Chi Gonzalez in the Sakha Republic of Russia and still put up a 5 spot through the first five innings, so it’s a matter of mapping out where you want to pivot and go elsewhere. For me personally I know that Machado and Tatis put up 0’s last night but there’s a ton of value at 3B/SS that I would rather have from other teams, so even though the Padres propping up 5 runs tonight is about as sure thing as the Lightning scoring 2 first period goals on the Islanders it’s not like we should assume it’ll be the studs who do the damage — look at Grisham/Pham and Caratini should be a solid play here at a weak catcher spot.
DODGERS
Gavin Lux, Cody Bellinger
Angry Dodgers explode tonight. They had to deal with garbage mix-match on who was pitching last night for the Phillies but have a full day to ponder how to hit against Zach Eflin which shouldn’t be that hard for them considering how terrible he has been away from Citizens Bank Park and that it’s gonna be hot as balls out in L.A. today.
Full Throttle Stacks
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves … The Braves are returning home to Truist Park where they are a much better offense and will draw a pitching staff who has been rattled lately and is under the microscope for no longer using substances to help them pitch. One of those main figures who has really struggled of late is Eduardo Rodriguez and he is on the mound tonight. If things go south, they will go south hard. Meanwhile for Boston, J.D. Martinez should be getting healthy now and is in a prime spot as a one off even on main lineups today. It’s very warm in Atlanta and this game is sneaking below the radar tonight.
The more I go to build lineups the more this game stands out as your #1 go all in spot tonight…
Toronto Blue Jays … So I know I hyped them up going into Boston as a great park, but that doesn’t suddenly mean they go back to Buffalo and start not hitting against a LHP that ** checks notes ** Grichuk, Vlad and Bo have all homered off of and allows a ton of hard contact to RH batters. Yikes.
Baltimore Orioles … This is the value play tonight, and I have good confidence in Baltimore hitting 3 HR tonight facing Quantrill. Mullins is the stud to roll out and the prices on others like Stewart, Galvis, Franco, Santander are all extremely favorable to make Baltimore the value team to multi entry tonight with other expensive teams (like Atlanta)
CATCHER
- Riley Adams
- Yan Gomes – Holy expensive on DK, FD only IMO.
- Christian Vasquez
- Jorge Alfarro
FIRST BASE
Are you playing Vlad? Yes? Good, enjoy the 25. No? Oh, well, uh, it sucks, so good luck.
- Vlad Jr
- Freddie Freeman
- Joey Votto
SECOND BASE
I do not have much grading out as good plays here beyond Albies who is down to $3,900 tonight. Take him or Coors.
- Ozzie Albies
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
Terrible position today, play Eugenio Suarez
- Eugenio Suarez
- KeBryan Hayes
- Alec Bohm
- Jose Ramirez – If we’re going to spend 6k at 3B then do it with Ramirez and not Turner/Machado as one offs.
SHORTSTOP
This is your UTIL spot on FD tonight.
- Kyle Farmer
- Gavin Lux
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Cedric Mullins
- Trent Grisham
- Thomas Pham
- Nick Castellanos
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Jorge Soler … Signs are there for his breakout coming, but rest of lineup not named Salvy is struggling.
- Cody Bellinger … Speaking of due.
- Wil Myers
- Dominic Smith
- Bryce Harper … This game is going over, if you tilt the late slate, get Phils hitters.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Randal Grichuk
- David Peralta
- Adam Duvall
- Hunter Renfroe
- The Greek Philosopher … C’Mon, this isn’t that hard…. He plays for the Reds. He homered last night… He is $2500….
The Dongers Club
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles – Chairman of the Dongers Club – Again
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- Jorge Soler – OF – Royals
- JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
- Gavin Lux – SS – Dodgers
- Jorge Alfarro – C – Marlins
- BONUS ……………………. Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Reds
BETS
- Red Sox / Braves 1st Inning Runs – Yes
- Red Sox / Braves OVER 9
- Orioles OVER 4 team runs
- Brett Anderson UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts
- LA Dodgers -1.5
- and the tampa bay lightning / ny islanders 1st period O1.5
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Padres, Indians, Jays
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Red Sox, Braves
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
Eugenio Suarez / Kyle Farmer out score Machado and Tatis
Orioles … when everyone else will be on Indians
Detroit Tigers / KC Royals … We’re not using Minor and Mize because these teams are going to combine for 25 hits. Quite possibly 25 singles.
BEST VALUE STACK
Orioles, Reds
DK PITCHERS
Darvish & Walker
Darvish & Montas
FD PITCHERS
Darvish
CORE HITTERS
Cedric Mullins
Ozzie Albies
Eugenio Suarez