It’s a lighter than normal Wednesday in MLB because they had a few inter-league series go Mon-Tue and a few teams got today off. The flip side is we’ll have more games tomorrow than normal. There are no major weather issues tonight.
Jordan Montgomery
The Yankees are going to win tonight and they’re going to get a solid game from Jordan Montgomery (he says while walking his dog and talking to himself on this fine mid-week Wendesday). Yes, the Rays have been on fire and the Yankees have been ice cold which is exactly why we are going with a LHP against the Rays because that is what kills them tonight. Tampa’s projected lineup has a 28% strikeout rate and the top 5 have a near 25% strike out rate vs LHP which are among the better targets on this slate. I prefer J-Mont as the top option on both sites and his every other good-bad trend should continue with a 20+ point night.
Alek Manoah
I love everything I saw from Manoah in his first start at Yankee Stadium and he’s got some crazy movement on his fastball to give him star potential. He was somehow staying under the radar in the minors this year after a great spring too but he’s fully onto our scene now & is priced very appropriately. He benefited some from being unknown and some shadows in the start last week and now benefits from a Marlins lineup which struggles vs RHP generally when it comes to strikeouts, so we should expect another good outing tonight. That said, I’m not one to love a rookie making his first “home” start but then he did pitch here in his minor league work, so I’m very much on board.
Sean Manaea
I just wanted to use the GIF below because we have the first of potentially many Manoah/Manaea days’ and if you don’t think of this song then what is wrong with you?
Rockies
I hate making mistakes in my article and not just giving wrong picks but more when I reference the wrong thing. I had a rookie mistake which was noticed yesterday when I had a brain fart on which team someone came up with. Anyways, no brain fart here because Jordan Lyles the former Rockie and NL West pitcher is going back to Coors to get his ass whipped. He’s never been a good pitcher and he was horrific in his days in Coors Field, which isn’t saying much obviously but some guys actually do well there (Marquez) and he isn’t one of them. Lyles has been really bad vs RHB and the Rockies two best players right now are Blackmon/McMahon, so he’ll be boosting the bad bats and getting hit by the good ones. It’s a 10 run spot for the Rockies tonight. Coors gonna Coors.
Athletics
When Oakland gets hot you gotta love them and Chris Flexen is a nice match-up for Oakland because he isn’t a high velocity pitcher. Olson/Lowrie/Brown and yes, Matt Chapman might even grace our lineups today in an Oakland stack scenario. Chris Flexen to me is not a good pitcher despite a few good spots here and there and should be always on the list of players to attack. Good weather and roof open tonight in Seattle.
Braves
Acuna, Freeman, Riley, Albies
I tossed and turned between the Braves and Dodgers for the final spot here…. Honestly, I really didn’t toss and turn here, this came down to one simple decision. Ozzie Albies is the best second baseman on the board tonight and I cannot say that about any single Dodger on the slate, so if we’re going to like a singular player and the two teams are equal your better stacking option is to go with the team w/ the best player. It’s like evaluating a trade in a fantasy league, who is getting the best player in the deal? It’s like evaluating the spot to eat with higher prices and beer versus the cheap place and no beer. One of them has beer. A question I have gotten many times is, what is the approach in a single entry one bullet lineup, and unless you are going through and really good at picking players per position, you take the team who has the best player at a weak position and that is the Braves tonight with Ozzie Albies and not the Dodgers who to be honest we are just randomly hoping some douchebag like McKinstrey homers.
Oh, why Atlanta? It’s Jon Lester in Truist Park which is not going to end favorably for him and the Nationals bullpen one bit…
CATCHER
- Pedro Severino – Sevy Season is here!
- Ben Rortvedt
- Will Smith
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Trey Mancini
- C.J. Cron
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Josh Harrison
- Max Muncy
THIRD BASE
- Ryan McMahon
- Matt Chapman
- Austin Riley
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Freddy Galvis
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Ronald Acuna
- Juan Soto – These two are gonna keep putting on a show all series. Soto is coming alive and having a monster week.
- Charlie Blackmon
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Anthony Santander
- Nelson Cruz
- Yonathan Daza – Best value tonight
- Corey Dickerson – Marlins leverage has to include C-Dick if you go there.
OUTFIELD – Value
- DJ Stewart – Second best value tonight
- Zach McKinstry
- Seth Brown
- Yordan Alvarez
The Dongers Club
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Matt Olson – 1B – Athletics
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Trea Turner – SS – Nationals
- Ronald Acuna – OF – Braves
- Adolis Garcia – OF – Rangers
- Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies
- Ben Rortvedt – C – Twins
- BONUS …………………….. Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees
BETS
- Yankees ML (-126) & The Under
- Twins / Orioles OVER 10
- Rockies ML (+104)
- Athletics ML (-145)
- Braves / Nationals 1st Inning Runs – Yes
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Twins
- Rangers
- Rockies
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Braves
- Dodgers
- Blue Jays
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Orioles
- Braves
- Marlins
DK SE SP Recommendations in Order
- Montgomery & Manoah
- Manoah & Manaea
- Montgomery & Manaea + Marlins Bats as Leverage
FD SE Recommendations in Order
- Montgomery
- Manoah