This is a quiet Monday slate which features an early lock time at 6:35 and only six games on the slate with the chances that it could turn into five games. But what if I told you that as a five game slate it becomes a fantastic slate compared to being six games?
The game which is in question features the Padres at the Rockies. It’s cold and rainy in Coors and I’m just gonna go ahead and say it. They’re not playing this game IMO. Honestly, I don’t think we would have wanted much in the game given the cooler temps and the Padres inability to hit consistently but if it gets PPD then that would likely wipe away the game off tomorrow’s slate and removing Coors on a 15 game slate is always a nice thing.
Every other game will play and we have the Red Sox doing a wrap-around Monday game in Baltimore still, the Reds visiting the Pirates, Anaheim is in Houston, Miami at Arizona and everyone’s favorite rivalry — Rangers at Giants. Giddy up!
Roofs in Arizona and Texas are TBD. Arizona likely open though.
If this were any other night these guys would all be priced between 6k and 7k on DK with the exception of 1 or 2. Nothing is good about the pitching today. At least not on paper.
Tyler Mahle … (DK: $9,400)
It’s a small slate so Mahle is going to be heavily owned tonight and I’m sure someone has their victory lap all written up about how fading a chalky Mahle was the sharp play. Look, let those other fools go out and stack Pie-Rats, we met our quota and then some with those boys back in April and I don’t know about you but I don’t want to start off my week by stacking the Pirates so lets take the 6 innings and 6 strikeouts from Mahle tonight who can offset a low K% lineup in Pittsburgh with his quality swing and miss stuff — because that’s the one thing he’s really good at.
Kyle Gibson … (DK: $8,600, FD: $9,500)
The one thing we know about Gibby is that he should give us close to 100 pitches. The other thing I feel like I know about Gibby is that he’ll give up a solo HR to Yaz tonight. But the length that he should provide compared to the other pitching choices available is what puts him into a good category to provide a 2x to 2.5x return tonight.
Luis Heibardo Garcia … (DK: $8,400, FD: $8,000)
Luis! I put his middle name in here because there are two Luis Garcia’s in the league & I needed a way to differentiate them in the model. Garcia draws an Angels team which is without Rendon and we’ve had Trout confirm on record how much he hates hitting in Minute Maid Park where his life time average is below .220. Garcia is a RHP who does very well vs RHB which is the majority of what he will see tonight. Vs Righties his xWOBA has been .293, .328, .204 and .322 since coming into the league.
Boston Red Sox
Verdugo, Devers, Cordero, Bogaerts
Boston gets Jorge Lopez tonight. In case you really don’t pay attention to Jorge Lopez, here’s how he is best described.
Left handed hitters have always murdered Lopez and his only good games come usually when he can avoid lefties. There’s no reason to not expect Devers to be a popular play and a good one tonight along with Verdugo and probably Marwin Gonzalez. But two guys I think you would be well advised to consider are Franchy Cordero and Xander Bogaerts. Cordero because of the obvious boost for him to possibly get a hit for once but Xander simply because with all the other LH batters getting love and likely bumping Lopez he would see some strong favorable hitting situations along the way.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are without Mr. Walks Joey Votto but they’re still gonna be drawing some walks against Mitch Keller who continues to have challenges with free passes and is really challenged to control left handed hitters. The park always is better for LH bats due to the dimensions for RH to pull the ball and although Suarez has the power and history to do well here, the main players we want from Cincinnati today are Winker-Moustakas-Naquin-Barnhart.
Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks
The best leverage play today would be to attack Luke Weaver as the Marlins get a nice park shift going to an open roofed Chase Field. The extra carry is needed for this offense which was struggling to string together big hits against the Brewers and will be very low owned tonight. Arizona gets to draw Ross Detwiler as an opener and then the Marlins bullpen after that, so we have to like this game for some good fill in offense even though neither team is gonna jack 5 HR
CATCHER
- Tucker B
- Pedro Severino
- Sandy Leon
FIRST BASE
- Jesus Aguilar
- Trey Mancini
- Shohei Ohtani
SECOND BASE
- Marwin Gonzalez
- Eduardo Escobar
- Isan Diaz
THIRD BASE
If I could roster 4 3B tonight and nothing else in the infield then I would.
- Mike Moustakas
- Rafael Devers
- Maikel Franco
- Brian Anderson
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Miguel Rojas
- Eugenio Suarez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Alex Verdugo
- Jesse Winker
- Corey Dickerson
- Mike Yastrzemski
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Austin Hays
- Joey Gallo
- David Peralta
OUTFIELD – Value
- Franchy Cordero
- Khris Davis
- Lewis Brinson
The Dongers Club
- Mike Moustakas – 3B – Reds – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Franchy Cordero – OF – Red Sox
- Trey Mancini – 1B – Orioles
- Marwin Gonzalez – 2B – Red Sox
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox
- Tucker Barnhardt – C – Reds
- Mike Yastrzemski – OF – Giants
- Joey Gallo – OF – Rangers
- BONUS …………………. Brian Anderson – 3B – Marlins
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Boston
- Houston – I am fading the Astros against 5’10 Jose Suarez
Update – Junior Guerra now starting for the Angels. Still a fade.
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)/
- Baltimore
Best Leverage Spots
- Miami
- Texas