Sunday Synchronicity as neither site has Coors Field on the Main slate and only 10 total games for this Sunday afternoon.
WEATHER
- Rainy in Houston so I would imagine the Rangers/Astros game is played with the roof closed
- All games play
Here’s some nuggets about the pitchers going today which are very telling of the state of 2021 Baseball right now. We have 19 projected pitchers as of now (Orioles SP is TBD) and when I look at those 19 pitchers most recent start you would think we had a slate full of aces. We do not. We have nobody priced above $9600 on DK (Lance McCullers) and while we don’t have anyone below $6,000, twelve of the nineteen are below $8,000. So you could say okay, it’s a bunch of mid range arms and that is accurate. But their last start for just about everyone going today was a pretty damn good one where we would anticipate that they’ll now have a below avg start because that’s what middle of the road guys do.
Mitch Keller is the only one coming off a negative start. Maeda, Hendricks and Singer are all coming off sub 10 point starts and Maeda/Hendricks are really struggling compared to expectations this season and Singer’s arm is tired. But here’s where it gets wild. McCullers (35), Bassitt (33), Montgomery (31), Peralta (29), Wood (27), Ynoa (23), Ray (23), Gibson (19), Boyd (19). Some of those guys are obviously better than just middle of the road, but holy hell that just seems wild that everyone’s pitching well right now. I’m just sharing this because I found it interesting — and also to maybe put a little reverse jinx on these guys or something.
Let’s dive into what they’ve got for match-ups today…
Lance McCullers Jr (DK: $9,600 – FD: $8,400)
McCullers has always been great at home and with the roof likely closed he should be good again today vs the Rangers. His home ERA is 2.63 compared to a 4.79 road ERA in his career and he’s dominated Joey Gallo so that’s one primary danger HR bat that is taken out of the equation. If he can keep the walks down he will have a shot at putting up another 30+ point DK game today.
Alex Wood (DK: $9,400 – FD: $7,500)
Pittsburgh doesn’t have much to offer against LHP right now and when Wilmer Difo is batting in your top 4 then you know it’s a really bad lineup folks. Wood is coming off a really good start but I believe he can put together another one today as Pittsburgh’s got a weighted 25% strikeout rate vs LHP and Wood has been fantastic vs RH this season limiting them to a .234 xWOBA and sub 3% barrel rate. He should pitch a solid outing today and get the Giants a win.
Huascar Ynoa (DK: $8,500 – FD: $8,400)
He has one major bat that I am fairly certain will double if not homer off him today and that is Lorenzo Cain. After that though Ynoa is pitching so well and the Brewers are so weak offensively that he should be looking at a 7 strikeout game barring wild control issues flaring up. I still am not as big of a hype person on Ynoa as everyone else is so he is clear cut #3 behind the top two guys because he’s a 2 pitch pitcher right now but the strikeout upside is fairly good here.
San Francisco Giants
Tauchman / Yaz / Belt / Longoria / Crawford
San Francisco is going to unleash the fury on Mitch Keller today. Five decent lefties in this lineup in a lefty weighted ballpark that Brandon Crawford specifically has been going off in. Keller has yet to fix his command issues and the Giants are one of the more patient teams at the plate. After losing a couple close ones I expect San Francisco to go completely off today. Evan Longoria is sneaky as hell and could dominate at 2% ownership today surrounded by all those lefty bats.
Boston Red Sox
Martinez, Renfroe, Dalbec
How much JD Martinez is too much JD Martinez? An interesting flip in the Sox lineup today as Devers moves up into the #2 hole against Quintana who is allowing a 43% hard hit rate and has been horrible at avoiding walks (17%) this season. So with Chavis-Devers at the top of the order we should see some ducks on the pond for today’s just play him 20%+ player JD Martinez. As always with Boston in order to stack them you’ll need someone bottom of the order to produce and right now Renfroe and Dalbec are as hot as they come and both extremely affordable.
Minnesota Twins
Donaldson/Arraez/Sano/Kepler
Nice weather in Target Field and I cannot see Chris Bassit putting up another dominant outing. The Twins are about one month away from mailing it in and selling off pieces but for now we have to capitalize on good weather coming to them and every proejcted hitter in this lineup has a primary pitch from Bassit which aligns well.
Philadelphia Phillies
McCutchen / Segura / Hoskins / Bohm
And now for the largest decision of the day. The game in Dunedin with a cold and banged up Phillies lineup against the Jays with Chase Anderson and Robbie Ray on the mound. Oh boy. So I expect Realmuto and Harper to get the day off here as both are banged up and it just makes sense to rest them and roll out as many RH bats as the Phillies can against Ray. Ray has been better this season but can still be extremely wild so no I am not going to consider him but can someone please tell Alec Bohm to take a couple fucking pitches today? This is really simple Bohm, you have all the fucking leverage in the world because Bohm is SLG% over .800 against LH fastballs, of which Ray will throw that 60% of the time & when he doesn’t it’s likely gonna be a slider which Bohm is even better at. But this dumb fuck gets up there and swings at the first pitch or second pitch every damn time and never has a nice 2-1 or 3-1 count to sit back and drive the ball with. Be patient dipshit.
CATCHER
- Kyle Higashioka
- Kevin Plawecki
- Andrew Knapp – $2300 in Dunedin
FIRST BASE
Boy do I love this position today, there’s options galore here and you could consider a one off like Voit or white hot Vladdy G, but the bottom 3 fit from the stacks I mentioned above.
- Brandon Belt
- Miguel Sano … Let’s see if this is a potential Sano heater coming
- Bobby Dalbec
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Michael Chavis
- Whit Merrifield – Locked in, draws a walk, steals second and scores on a Jorge Soler sac fly top of first then adds a solo HR top 8th.
THIRD BASE
All the homers here….
- Evan Longoria
- Josh Donaldson
- Yoan Moncada
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Freddy Galvis
- Jonathan Arauz
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- J.D. Martinez
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Mike Yasrtzemski
- Max Kepler – Hate that he remains low in the order.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Aaron Judge
- Lorenzo Cain
- Andrew McCutchen
- Robbie Grossman
OUTFIELD – Value
- Mike Tauchman
- Nomar Mazara
- Clint Frazier
- Hunter Renfroe
The Dongers Club
- JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Evan Longoria – 3B – Giants
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr – OF – Blue Jays
- Brandon Belt – 1B – Giants
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Pedro Severino – C – Orioles
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- Mike Tauchman – OF – Giants
- BONUS ………………… Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Red Sox
- Blue Jays
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Phillies
- White Sox
CORE PLAYS FOR SINGLE ENTRY
- Lance McCullers Jr
- JD Martinez
- Bobby Dalbec
FAVORITE ONE OFFS
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Yoan Moncada