Ahh. Friday Baseball with a full 14 game slate and the Cubs are playing a home game this afternoon for the good people of Chicago to enjoy! It really is a wonderful thing to see and we’re going into a weekend white hot after a good stretch the last week and a big Thursday afternoon take down yesterday. It was wonderful to see so many winning messages from everyone who follows along and it’s even better to see everyone pairing their research with this article, the information shared in the past and of course the Dashboard to find success! I personally had some big SE wins on both sites yesterday. So the irony of all this is that yeah I would have taken down all the “donkey” tournaments yesterday too, but if you “Trust The Process” as they say then that doesn’t matter because in the long run we want to make sure that our first contest selection is into a no comma contest and then if we want to add some extra’s to have that big hit then absolutely throw a second entry in there. But the sustained success comes by grinding out the contests where you have to beat fewer people.
Think of it basically as an investment portfolio. Should you buy into that high risk area? Yes, but it should be about 20% and not 100% of your investments.
Someone also asked me to do a video breakdown of the Dashboard and how to use it and I will have that coming in the next few days, but for now we dive into what could be up to 14 games tonight, pending some weather.
WEATHER SPOTS
Boston at Baltimore – This is the worst looking of the games with weather issues & given that Matt Harvey is on the mound for Baltimore I don’t mind if they just PPD it.
Cincinnati at Cleveland – Rain here but I am very optimistic this plays.
Minnesota at Detroit – Same situation here, should play
The roof in Texas could be open, which becomes a massive bump for hitters given that it’s upper 80’s.
The roof in Houston normally is closed, but same deal there if they do open it. I’d be shocked though if they open it.
There really aren’t a ton of pitching options but it doesn’t mean that we are looking at a ton of 10-9 type scores out there today. It’s just not a dominant slate in terms of available SP’s and if I told you that no pitcher would score more than 25 points tonight but also just about every non opener pitcher with exception of 2-3 will score no fewer than 10 points tonight then you would say …. ?
That’s a question class. The answer is at the end of the article, here’s my favorite 3 options though.
Top Options
Jack Flaherty (DK: $9,400, FD: $10,200)
Flaherty gets the boost of facing Colorado away from Coors Field. The data will say that the Rockies have one of the highest xSLG over the last week or so but that’s entirely driven by a high scoring series with the Giants recently and a few guys hitting well at home. The obvious narrative in this game is Nolan Arenado facing his old team for the first time but what should wind up being the narrative is how the Rockies without Arenado will not hit at all away from Coors Field and probably get out hit by him alone today because the match-up against Flaherty is one that heavily leans the Cardinals best SP. In his last three starts Jack has thrown 107, 95 and 104 pitches going at least 6 innings in each one. If he replicates that tonight, he’ll finish in the mid 20’s on DraftKings, which we gladly take and move on.
Trevor Rogers (DK: $8,800, FD: $10,400)
Rogers is actually overpriced in my mind but it’s honestly just being a little picky for me to say that. He has yet to throw more than 95 pitches in a game and that one time was the only time he went over 85 pitches total for the game. There’s also questions as to if he is just getting lucky and facing some bad offenses along the stretch here because the massive decrease in Hard Hit rates is a bit extreme considering it’s all been based upon his Fastball just being more effective. He’s decent, but not this decent.
But this is DFS and all we care about is today and what can he do for us tonight and Milwaukee has nearly a 30% strikeout rate vs LHP and puts Rogers in a spot to perform well.
THE BEST OF THE SUB 8K ARMS
There were multiple days earlier this week when we went the route of stacking a value team on DK and pairing them with the high floor, higher priced SP’s on the slate. Then there are slates when there is a value pitcher who is going to go for 4x potentially that we want to use. Tonight is neither of those things. Tonight is a night where I’d be better off mixing and matching bats with two of the safer arms or riding two cheap arms with a higher priced stack. So who exactly can fit into a mid range arm that we can trust?
- Rich Hill – Dominated Oakland earlier this season, park plays quiet at night, he is my go strongest choice of these three but that’s like me saying I prefer a Cesar Salad with no meat over a Cobb Salad.
- David Peterson – Lots of love for Gallen in this game, but it’s Zona whom I would pick on
- Charlie Morton – Model loves him. I hate picking on Phillies when they come to Atlanta, but can he get 15? Absolutely. He will need to be efficient tonight with his pitches however and not try to get into 3-2 counts all game long. Boost if Jeff Mathis is catching however.
- Anthony DeSclafani – Normally he would be my top guy as a third option but seeing the Padres for the third time likely drops K upside even more and at best I expect 5 2/3 IP with 4 strikeouts. Not feeling the Italian today…
OVERALL MY RANKINGS
- Flaherty
- ====================== BIG GAP ===================
- Rogers / Hill / Morton in that order.
- Peterson
- DeSclafani
LA Dodgers
Seager, Muncy, Betts, Turner
AngryDodgers tonight back in LA but in an American League park so they don’t get killed by the SP hitting. Picking on Griffin Canning who had his one really good start last outing in an easier spot and now gets a lineup which has been cold for too long. Hard to play the Dodgers on DK at their prices but on FanDuel they can fit easily.
Toronto Blue Jays
Hernandez & Biggio
Don’t look now but Toronto is white hot and going into Houston where it’s looking more and more like the roof will be open. A very heavy RH lineup should play well in Minute Maid park and should play even better against Jose Urquidy who leans heavily towards dominating LHB and is just average against RHB. The return of Teoscar Hernandez to Houston is on our radar today along with Houston native and son of Houston great Craig Biggio – Cavan Biggio. But for the RH bats it’s Teoscar that is the core play for me along with 1-3 Semien, Beaux and Vladdy G.
Cincinnati Reds
#LiC … Lefties in Cleveland & the best value on DK
The rain and cooler temps will drive this one way down on the list but Cincinnati will tee off this weekend and prove that they just need good parks to hit in to be a good offense. The return of Tyler Naquin to Cleveland is obvious, but did you know it was Mike Moustakas who originally cemented the LiC legacy in DFS? Winker-Moose-Naquin is a great value stack on DK today.
St. Louis Cardinals
Arenado, ONeill, Bader
They gotta do it in the first three innings or it’s dead, so this might be a better BET than a DFS play but the Cardinals lineup tonight should feature nothing but RH bats and the bottom of the lineup is where they’re going to explode after Gomber struggles to walk Goldy & Nado. Both Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill figure to benefit the most and I wouldn’t even be shocked when Jack Flaherty pulls a Ynoa and hits a bases clearing double (or slam) tonight to make it 6-0 Cardinals bottom 1st.
Under the radar team – Secondary stack
Washington Nationals
Turner, Soto, Bell
Like the Dodgers and Reds the Nationals are an NL team going into an AL park which removes the issue of wasted AB’s at the bottom of the order. Additionally for Washington, if they are getting Soto back in the DH role tonight (which if they dont then what is really going on here) then we actually have 2+ competent bats we can trust. Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber are mostly value plays but who doesn’t love Tiny Trea in a Tiny Park Turner?
CATCHER
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Mike Zunino
- Andrew Knizner
FIRST BASE
Top heavy position as are most infield spots tonight for those doing the 1 off route to fill in spots. Find the value in the OF over finding value in all 4 infield spots.
- Max Muncy
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien
- Mike Brosseau’t
- Nick Madrigal
THIRD BASE
- Mike Moustakas
- Nolan…. Arenado – Shouldn’t need to explain this narrative right?
- Cavan Biggio ($3200 and OF eligible)
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Trea Turner
- Bo Bichette
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
Fading Stanton vs God wouldn’t be smart right now and fading him vs Corbin feels even more dangerous. Im not saying you can’t do it, just dont expect him to flop and get by with a 5 from your OF. You gotta get production if you fade him (which can be done).
- Giancarlo Stanton – Only way his heater ends is if they walk him 5 times.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Jesse Winker
- Kyle Lewis
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Franmil Reyes
- Juan Soto
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Value
- Cavan Biggio
- Harrison Bader
- Tyler Naquin
- Hunter Dozier – FD Value
- Kyle Schwarber
- Clint Frazier
The Dongers Club
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Mike Moustakas – 3B – Reds
- Tucker Barnhardt – C – Reds
- Max Muncy – 1B – Dodgers
- Trea Turner – SS – Nationals
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Blue Jays
- Harrison Bader – OF – Cardinals
- Kyle Lewis – OF – Mariners
- BONUS ………………. Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Red Sox – But Rain
- Twins – Also rain/bad weather IMO
- Yankees
- Astros
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Blue Jays – If you are a hedge stack person this is the best one out there tonight. I think this is too many RHB for Urquidy but Toronto certainly has never met a pitch they dont like to swing and miss at. I trust they are hot and will ride that side.
- Nationals
- Reds
Best Leverage Spots
None really. Leverage is mostly only beneficial when you have smaller slates. On a big slate like this and with tonights structure we have ownership spread out enough that it doesn’t warrant going a leverage play anywhere.
3-Entry Max Builds
Alright so here’s the Answer to the question above on lineup construction tonight.
Start with your offense first. Do not lock in on I gotta have Pitcher X or Y. Lock in on the core 3-players you want in your lineup, then go to SP then come back to fill in the second side of the lineup. You do not want to wind up punting pitcher by any means but you do not need to force yourself into two guys above 8500 and wind up with a mix match of failed bats. I would prefer a 3-3 core build of two teams with one offs tonight if possible but really it’s driven by the offense core.
- Reds? You can get Flaherty
- Dodgers on DK? Gonna have to come off Jack probably
- Cardinals/Blue Jays/Nationals all fit well as secondary stacks