Happy Mothers Day. We have lots of rain but not a ton of PPD spots and it’s also not above 70 in any spot which doesn’t have a dome.
- Reds at Indians – This one has been PPD
- Twins at Tigers – Also not great, but playable.
- Rockies at Cardinals – Ditto this, will play
- Pirates at Cubs – Wind strong in and cool
With much apologies to the guy in the Pitching Breakdown graphic above, we are not going to ride the deGrom train on this Sunday and I’ll explain why on him later.
Lucas Giolito … (DK: $9,500, FD: $9,600)
The Royals have fallen harder and faster than a Chineese Rocket attached to DOGECOIN during Saturday Night Live. And you guys say I don’t follow current events! Pfft. Seriously though the Royals have a banged up Salvy Perez right now, a can’t quite break through Jorge Soler and Whit and that’s it. Santana has gone cold, Dozier is Dozier and Andrew try hard Benitendi is just … not good. They need a day off, which they are getting tomorrow before going to a city they should start to hit again in. It’s below 50 here with wind blowing in and the Royals have never been a cold weather hitting team so as much as I want to ride Royals at home on a Sunday, I can’t expect their 7 game losing streak to snap against Giolito.
Sandy Alcantara … (DK: $9,400, FD: $9,000)
Look at these DFS sites out here pricing up South Beach Sandy on a Sunday! Good for them. Some of you know the deal with the Sunday theory on Marlins home games, but for those who don’t know here is a quick refresher on the math. The Marlins always play Saturday early evening games in Miami. Because nobody wants to be stuck at Marlins park at 10:05 PM on a Saturday night watching some double shift by Don Mattingly when they could already be out getting ready to enjoy the city. And Miami isn’t exactly Wisconsin when it comes to things to do at night. Yes – I know, there are terrific things to do in Wisconsin I am sure, I don’t need 50 tweets today about how great a state Wisconsin is. Whoop tee do, you guys are America’s Dairyland. Great. You know what else produces Milk? …. Oh, it’s Mother’s day, I’ll keep this PC. Anyways, the Brewers have been stuck between COVID lock downs and divisional trips to places like Chicago, Pittsburgh and St. Louis for the past year. They ain’t showing up today. We have a no-no watch again.
Kyle Hendricks … (DK: $6,900)
Hendricks is coming off a really good bounce back game where he pitched 7 innings with 6 strikeouts and 1 ER against the Dodgers following his beatdowns at the hands of the Braves who just own him. So I am a little shocked his price remains this low against the Pie-Rats! but with the weather in Chicago being so favorable for pitching and his long running history of being much better in Wrigley Field we will just take it and move on. This is a good spot to consider a SP game-stack if you are going heavy on higher $ hitting to force in two stacks as Tyler Anderson will pitch decent vs the Cubbies too.
Also expect to pitch well
- Tyler Anderson
- Mike Minor
About Mr. deGrom
This isn’t only me being concerned that he was scratched from his last start and now could be held under 100 pitches if the Mets are smart today. It’s also because the sites have finally allowed his price to creep up into the category where he has to be the pitcher he normally is to fully hit value and there are also many pitching options today. But beyond that the Diamondbacks have not been a high strikeout team this season vs RHP and while yeah, deGrom is match-up proof, I combine all these factors together and move along from spending a few extra thousand of the salary when the Mets should be smart and keep him under 100 while other arms are within striking distance of his score if not better. Shoot, I even love the over in this game — yes, the over in a deGrom game!
This is honestly where things get difficult today. While I can justify to myself and you some reasons why there are a few sneaky spots in the games with temps in the mid 50’s, we have some equally good spots in Houston and Texas where at worst it will be climate controlled with roofs closed. That sad, if they close the roof in Houston (Greinke is pitching) and Texas then it brings those two spots way back down to an even field.
Baltimore Orioles
Mancini, Mullins, Franco, Stewart
Things I could not imagine doing today. #1. Not playing Trey Mancini. The shine is coming off Pivetta’s “resurgence” as he drifts back into the middle of the road and is still a pitcher that will give up plenty of hard contact — even to RH batters — and with the small park and a slight breeze out to left the Yard Birds should have a multi-HR game here today despite still striking out a few times against him in between.
Toronto Blue Jays
Bichette, Hernandez, Grichuk
We fucked up earlier this week forgetting to always get something against Greinke in the year of 2021. The Blue Jays swing so much that Greinke will certainly have an inning or two which is clean for him but when he misses the ball is going to go very very far and a team with the power like Toronto is too good to ignore here.
Boston Red Sox
Devers, Marwin G, Renfroe, Verdugo
Boston in Camden rarely fails entirely and Dean Kremer is someone that has gotten destroyed by LH bats. Devers/Marwin/Verdugo are all at the top here but I like a cheap Hunter Renfroe HR as well.
NY Mets
Lindor, Conforto, Alonso, McNeil
McNeil and Lindor should have had their fight or argument or whatever a long time ago because it’s awoken both of them. Nothing would be more Mets than for them to score a ton of runs in a deGrom start where he only lasts a few innings himself.
CATCHER
Simply do not use a catcher on FanDuel today and on DraftKings open your app, select C, start scrolling, keep scrolling, keep going, nope, don’t stop on Jacob Stallings, he’s a Pirate, keep going, ok yes, click the last guy who is playing.
FIRST BASE
- Trey Mancini
- Jesus Aguilar – Holy wow look at his price. Did DK & FD factor in Jesus on Sunday’s here? Wow. Great match-up though
- Peter Alonso
SECOND BASE
- Marwin Gonzalez – Gonna be very chalky on DK if he winds up leading off.
- Jeff McNeil
- Adam Frazier
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Cavan Biggio
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Andrelton Simmons
- Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Cedric Mullins
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Yordan Alvarez
- Randal Grichuk
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Alex Verdugo
- Michael Conforto
OUTFIELD – Value
- DJ Stewart – Doesnt get much better value than this
- Hunter Renfroe – Hold my beer says Renfroe.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Kyle Lewis
- Lewis Brinson
The Dongers Club
- Trey Mancini – 1B/OF – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Blue Jays
- Josh Harrison – 2B – Nationals
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- DJ Stewart – OF – Orioles
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Red Sox
- Chad Wallach – C – Marlins
- BONUS ……………. Jesus Aguilar – 1B – Marlins
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Yankees
- Red Sox
- Astros
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)/
- Blue Jays
- Mets
Best Leverage Spots
While I don’t see deGrom being the play today, I’m also not gonna bother getting cute with any Arizona stacks and while one could say “oh, Royals are due”, I’m not gonna jump on them against a good SP with a good bullpen in cold conditions. Sometimes you need someone to tell you not to be too cute and today, don’t be too cute because fading and leverage are not the same thing and just because we fade doesn’t mean we should try to use the word leverage and out smart ourselves.