I guess I should make sure that there aren’t any grammatical errors in this article today since it might be drawing more eye balls than usual. Well, there’s zero chance of that happening, but since I have your attention let me remind you about that time the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl.
So last night was a hell of a night, it’s happened before in the sense that the article was rolling with the home run calls by position to include a player who had never been mentioned in the article before by the name of Andy Ibanez, the 28 year old Cuban infielder for Texas. He “popped” as the cool kids like to say off in the model and it was a slate where I recognized there would need to be a value punt here or there to roll with. But obviously winning, $50,000 on DraftKings was an accomplishment that is rare in and of it self.
Winning a tournament on FanDuel and DraftKings in the same week only underscores how solid I feel the article AND the dashboard/tools have been this year and in particular over the last 6-8 weeks. The winning isn’t by accident but as I have said before you do need some luck and good fortune with DFS to have that look at me type screenshot moment, although there really wasn’t one thing that went my way as a major break last night. We just had some damn good plays! Patrick Sandoval, the Blue Jays, the Lefties in Cleveland, etc. But what was the good fortune in all of this? Contest selection and confidence. Confidence as always to trust one lineup and the analysis I have is going to be right. Trust that when I say Ryu and Sandoval are the SP pairings I am going with on DK that I stick with them. Trust that you don’t have to always have a 5 man stack to win a tournament on DraftKings. And confidence that Salvador Perez, the best damn catcher in Baseball would hit a mammoth home run…
It all boils down to finding a system that works, refining it and reducing the amount of influences who can come along and ruin your pattern. Last night was not just a win for me, it was a win for The Daily Ambush. I always run an end of year Dongers Club Appreciation contest and already had some ideas on what to do with it for August — now I might be throwing in some added juice to it because I honestly value the #Ambush team here as much as I value making Falcons 28-3 jokes. So with that said, let’s take the mound and keep doing what we do on this fine Sunday at the end of July, because there is money to be won and I look forward to re-tweeting your $50,000 win next.
11 games on the Main Sunday slate today with site synchronicity on both Main, Afternoon and Showdown/Single game slates. As usual, only an article for Main but use the dashboard/tools for the late ones.
WEATHER
No issues again, but a good amount of afternoon July humidity in a lot of areas. I don’t see any pop up showers being an issue anywhere if they do happen, so all games play.
That ChiSox/Brewers match-up I alluded too yesterday is the Sunday Night game today so we miss out on that one but should have a fun time with it on Showdown (I like White Sox for what it’s worth).
The most upsetting thing is that the Marlins scratched Trevor Rodgers for what would have been the most unexpected no hitter of 2021 today because a west coast team finishing up their road trip in Miami on the weekend was sure to be peak #SouthBeachTheory. None the less the Marlins are likely going with a bullpen day today and so we’re not going to touch that. We also have Rich Hill making his NY Mets debut, Trevor Williams on a Sunday and Daniel Lynch coming back to try out this MLB pitching thing one more time. Hopefully he realizes the target is the catchers glove and not the backstop.
We’re not using any of those guys. I just wanted to occupy your attention for a little bit longer. It’s a boring pitching slate to be honest…
Yu Darvish
This isn’t a recommendation based upon his name and the fact that he is a pitcher against the Marlins. Darvish had a rough stretch before the all-star break and had a brief IL stint which created speculation that he was using “sticky stuff”. Well, every other pitcher who has been speculated with sticky stuff has really started to rebound of late and when you look at Darvish’s start in Atlanta earlier this week all signs point to him putting it together for a dominant outing today. He was using his deep array of pitches as usual (Cutter, Four-Seamer, Slider, Curve, Splitter) which is great to see and always what makes him great (having so many quality pitches). The pitch count is not an issue here either and sure, throw in the factor of it being a favorable pitchers park and a really favorable lineup to pick on and we’ve got ourselves SP1 today.
Zack Greinke
As a baseball fan I will always love Greinke but as a DFS person I really have a hard time paying 10k for him in the year of 2021. Yes, the Rangers are horrible and the roof should be closed in Houston today and it’s about as safe of a 15 fantasy points as you can find. But it’s also a really safe bet that he isn’t going to top 20 fantasy points today either, so by no means is Greinke the first name we circle as a must own on today’s slate. He’s basically just a guy in a really logical spot.
Sunday Sleeper
Caleb Smith
It is warm in Wrigley Field but the wind is not a factor today and these are still two bad offenses despite putting up some offense the first two games of this series. I project this to be a low scoring game and like the K% upside that Smith has along with his slightly lower price tag compared to Trevor Williams on the other end. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Cubs win late 3-2 off the Diamondbacks bullpen but Smith can deliver 6 strong with more than a K per inning along the way.
Other Longshots I think pitch well but aren’t going to pull a Patrick Sandoval by any stretch of the imagination …
Triston McKenzie – There’s an obvious HR for the Rays and his name is Brandon Lowe and he isn’t playing. WTF Tampa? Sleeper pick here as McKenzie is good enough to silence a chalky Rays lineup but there is a short leash risk though.
Ryan Yarbrough
Phillies
Harper, Segura, McCutchen
The weather in Philadelphia is dynamite for offense today, which is 1/2 of the reason we aren’t touching Aaron Nola. Touki Toussaint was thrust back into the Braves rotation out of nowhere (to us) and did fantastic against the Padres. The Phils though will have the advantage of being prepared for him to start today and should rebound to split this series. Harper had a really good opposite field double yesterday which is something I always like to see for signs of a big game coming.
NY Mets
Alonso, Davis, Conforto, Nimmo
The Ross Stripling experience. It’s finished. Caput. Done. He probably can make it three innings today unlike his last start which didn’t last a full inning but Citi Field Sunday afternoon games and stacking the Mets … a tradition unlike any other. Conforto after an off day is one player who sticks out as awesome value but Alonso/JD Davis in RH matchups really should fly under the radar this afternoon.
Nats / Orioles
Turner, Zimmerman, Rivera — Mancini, Mullins, Franco
John Means is no where near his early season form right now and the weather in Camden Yards screams 6 home runs in this game. I wanted to consider Espino for the Nationals as a SP but no way no how can’t do it. We’ve been waiting all weekend for that Nationals in Camden explosion and it’s here today. The question is which way does Turner hit his HR?
Other hitting spots I can see exploding
Toronto
This is the hardest fade for me on my main lineup but I wasn’t originally going to roll with Toronto after exploding last night. The matchup against Hill makes a ton of sense and Springer hitting in front of Vlad is going to make him look like his contract wasn’t so bad after all. But being a one lineup person I have other spots I am favoring over the pricey Jays today and I want my $ spent on Darvish as SP1, so I’m rolling Toronto on a second lineup and looking for value in Grichuk, Espinal (3B is weak) and of course Springer up top. But if you are punting on pitching then go straight to a 5 man Jays stack because this offense is too damn good to not hit Rich Hill. They’re just pricey.
CATCHER
There are too many good hitting environments today to not try and find a good value catcher. So yeah, JT Realmuto in the Phils stack is tempting but there’s better value elsewhere and that will allow you to get the higher $/safer pitchers.
- Rene Rivera
- Pedro Severino
- Eric Haase
- Francisco Mejia
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Trey Mancini
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Whit Merrifield
- Ozzie Albies … Ozzie and Freddie have both been on fire of late but Freeman is no doubt the one that Nola will be more concerned with and with Ozzie hitting in front of Freddie he should get some quality pitches to hit.
THIRD BASE
Value position today
- Maikel Franco
- JD Davis
- Jonathan Villar
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Paul DeJong
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Andrew McCutchen
- Cedric Mullins
- Giancarlo Stanton … Really like Stanton today as a one off
- Max Kepler … Value and in a great spot vs Barria to get things going today for the Twins. Granted, he’s the only Twin to consider.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Michael Conforto
- Harper, Bryce
- Brandon Nimmo
- Randal Grichuk
OUTFIELD – Value
- Joc Pederson
- Robbie Grossman
- Jorge Soler
- Jake Marisnick
The Dongers Club
- Trea Turner – SS – Washington Nationals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Andrew McCutchen – OF – Phillies
- Michael Conforto – OF – NY Mets
- Maikel Franco – 3B – Orioles
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Rene Rivera – C – Nationals
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Mets
- BONUS ……………… Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
BETS
- Phillies – 1.5
- Nats/Orioles OVER 10.5
- Nats ML
- Rays/Indians UNDER 9.5
- Jays/Mets OVER 9.5
HR Parlay
- Turner / McCutchen / Kepler / Stanton
The Chalkiest Stacks
Reds, Astros, Red Sox, Rays
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Phillies
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Triston McKenzie
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Darvish and Caleb Smith – Primary
Darvish and Greinke
Greinke and McKenzie
FAVORITE HITTERS
Trea Turner
Andrew McCutchen