In most weeks, I will usually give the guys at the top some consideration (Hovland last week) but will usually note – and will again this week – that getting more than one guy at the top will really hurt what you have to spend on the next five guys. That is, unless you can get guys in the low $7K range to offset that. Still, making the cut at that price is a nail-biter.
For myself, I’m going more balanced this week since the last couple of weeks haven’t been so kind to me when I start at the top. Using top tier guys seems to be a lot easier on FanDuel but the contest selection there is, to be kind, dog biscuits!
$10,000 and Above
- Matthew Wolff ($10,400) – he is currently Sam Burns ($11,000), but $600 cheaper. Three events this Fall and three Top 20s (including two Top 5s). I like Sam Burns too, but Wolff gives me just a little more flexibility.
- Sungjae Im ($10,700) – 4 out of 4 on cuts made with a win in the wrap-around season. 84 birdies and 5 eagles in those 16 rounds as well. He’s averaging 111 points on Draft Kings which is about a 10x return. Getting that from a high-priced guy is what you want – although I really like the 111 points out of a low $8K guy.
Note: I started breaking this Tier down a little further for one reason and one reason only. Everyone thinks that it is a “must have” to win a contest (or at least cash). It’s not! You really need a Top 10 from these guys (and preferably a Top 5) to validate what you have to give up as far as value on your remaining picks. Seriously, your average “per golfer” is below $8K if you start with guys in the $10K and up range.
$9,000 to $9,900
- Patrick Reed ($9,000) – Had some up and down rounds last week, but as I said last week, he rarely goes at a tournament “half-assed”. I think he’s a solid play this week at the lower end of this tier. With Texas as a venue, wind can be a factor. Reed is a very “adaptable” golfer.
- Talor Gooch ($9,300) – I AM A CURRENT FORM PLAYER!! Let me repeat myself from last week and add one more finish! Nothing needs said other than T4-T11-T5-T11!
- Aaron Wise ($9,200) – Groundhog Day again! (Is that redundant?) T26-T8-T5-T15!
$7,500 to $8,900
- Russell Henley ($8,900) – He loves Houston! Different course but in his past appearances here from 2015-2017 he went 4th – 5th – Win.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,600)
- Maverick McNealy ($7,900) – He may be a sleeper at this price.
- Chad Ramey ($7,500) – Fresh off the Korn Ferry Tour, he missed the cut. Since then, he has continually improved. Two Top 20s in his last three events.
$7,400 and Under
- C. T. Pan ($7,300) – 5 out of 5 in Cuts Made and Tops in Shots Gained-Total in the modeling tool I use.
- Matthias Schwab ($7,200) – He’s only missed two cuts in his last 22 worldwide events. At this price, with potential for wind and him being a Euro Tour player, it may be worth a shot.
- Aaron Rai ($6,900) – In his last three events, he’s gone T25-T62-T15. The T15 was just last week. He missed the first three cuts at tournaments played here in September-October. He went back to Europe and got a T25. Playing well – especially at this price – since coming back to the PGA Tour.
NOTE: I’m not recommending Ian Poulter ($7,300) this week since he disappointed me again last week with a poor 2nd round and missing the cut by one. But, Hell, I may still play him because missing cuts just pisses him off!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are two potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1:
Patrick Reed
Talor Gooch
Aaron Wise
CORE #2:
Sungjae Im
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Maverick McNealy
TOP 10 guys in Shots Gained: Total in the last 16 rounds played:
- C. T. Pan
- Aaron Wise
- Harold Varner III
- Sungjae Im
- Sam Burns
- Adam Scott – I didn’t mention him but I do have a good feeling about him this week!
- Talor Gooch
- Jason Dufner – at $6,300 he may be a longshot even though my confidence level in him is low.
- Mito Pereira
- Marc Leishman
GOOD LUCK!!