AT&T Byron Nelson
That’s two weeks in a row we’ve had the winner in the write up! I’m taking credit for calling it too – whether you agree with me or not:
Max Homa ($8,600) – It appears that “West Coast Homa” has figured out that his game transfers nationwide. He has not missed a cut in quite some time and, as I said with Hatton, this is the exactly the type of player that could win here.
It’s getting to be a common occurrence that we are playing courses with little or no course history. Since that’s one of my favorite factors, you can see why that annoys me. However, we are holding our own and I’m confident we can do it again this week. Last year was the first year the PGA Tour played at TPC Craig Ranch. The Korn Ferry Tour played here a couple of times, but that doesn’t really help us much since that was 2008 and 2012.
General Description: Par 72 – 7,438 yards. Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. Somewhat like Augusta National, there is a creek that meanders its way through the course and comes into play periodically. Unlike Augusta, the course does not have the elevation changes in that it’s flat with wide fairways and large greens.
We do have a lot better field this week. Most likely because the PGA Championship is next week and some of these guys have taken some time off from competition in the last few weeks and are looking to get back into the tournament mode. The question is, which way does that cut? As with a lot of tournaments the week before a major, you run the risk of guys who you think should/could win using this tournament as a time to work on their game. More penalizing, you run the risk that, if they play poorly on Thursday and have already qualified for the Major, they “Happy Gilmore” their way around the course on Friday to get in some weekend practice rounds at Southern Hills!
Key factors this week:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Bogey Avoidance (now isn’t that the most obvious stat out there?)
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye. THERE IS NOT MUCH THIS WEEK…AGAIN!
So, who do we play? I know, I want:
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Dustin Johnson
Joran Spieth
How much do I have left? $4,100? Now what do I do? DFS is not a popularity contest or a familiarity contest. I’m not the “obvious pick” guy and doing that all the time really adds no benefit to the readers. So, with that said:
- Will Zalatoris ($9,400) – With so many big names to pick from, why am I on Zalatoris? Well, this week, I think he can win! I save $1500 by not picking Scottie Scheffler – who’s on FIRE! And, he’s made 6 straight cuts. Oh, and I forgot, he’s damn good too!
- Justin Thomas ($10,600) – OK! Sometimes I’m “obvious”. Sometimes I simply have a feeling that a course really doesn’t have anything to scare a guy. I see that with JT this week. If he’s wild, fairways are wide. He’s long, so the course length doesn’t bother me. My only hesitation is the $10,600 price but he can pay that off with a Top 10 and there are some good names in the $7K range to help you.
Dew Sweepers:
- Joaquin Niemann ($9,300) – He’s now #16 in the World Golf Rankings! He’s missed 3 cuts this season, but none since February. Plus, he shouldn’t be as highly-owned as some of the other guys in this tier.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,000) – I’m not sure why I haven’t been as excited about playing Tommy this year. Maybe it’s because he’s not playing well? Nope – Five cuts made since March 1st and ALL of them are Top 25s. He missed a lot of cuts prior to that? Nope – only ONE! OK – maybe I’m just not paying attention? Don’t ask my wife to answer that question.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Jhonattan Vegas ($8,400) – I think I may be higher on Vegas than most people. He has quietly put together three Top 20s in a row and finished Top 10 here last year. Good current form and no bad memories at a course – albeit one year – is a good combination.
- Adam Hadwin ($8,000) – After a short hiatus from the Adam Hadwin bandwagon, I’m back. He always seemed to be priced low even when he was playing well. Then, he hit a slump and the pricing never really changed. Now, we’re back to the former. $8K for a guy that has three Top 10s in his last four events. Oh yeah, putting is usually his thing – and he’s better on Bentgrass!
Dew Sweepers:
- Sepp Straka ($7,600) – I don’t care that he missed the cut last week. Weather was brutal and he barely missed.
- Mito Pereira ($7,600) – T26-T13-T27 in his last three events. If I could guarantee that at this price every week, he would be an “auto-fill”! I can’t, but I think he continues his excellent play and, honestly, I’ll bet 8 out of 10 casual golf fans/DFS players, have no idea who this is.
$7,000 to $7,400
Ah, the price range that scares the shit out of every PGA DFS player that, like it or now, must be utilized if you think you have to start with the $10K and up guys.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,400) – “Bless You!” Even though his name sounds like something you should say after a sneeze, his game is nothing to sneeze at! This guy has made 11 out of 13 cuts and has 5 Top 20s since the Olympics last year.
- Shaun Norris ($7,200) – I really would like to see the reaction of “who the Hell is he talking about?” that I probably get with some of these picks. But, as I said, anyone can tell you to take the top players in the world. I’m also NOT telling you NOT to play them (Sounds like an argument in the Big Bang Theory). It’s just that, we have to be different to win GPPs. This guy is no slouch! He plays mostly on the European/World Tour but is yet to miss a cut this year. I don’t care what tour you play on. Not missing cuts and costing $7,200 is a good thing!
Dew Sweepers:
- C. T. Pan ($7,300) – Five straight cuts and held his own in the shitty weather last week.
- Sahith Theegala ($7,100) – I’ve really been impressed with his play recently. Five cuts in a row and three Top 25s. Driving accuracy is usually his issue and that shouldn’t matter this week. Will he win? Nope! Making the cut will most likely guarantee you at least 80 fantasy points and 10X is good at any price!
Under $7,000
Just a couple of guys here:
- Wyndham Clark ($6,900) – Four straight cuts and this course should play to the strengths of his game. T39 last year so no bad memories either.
- Scott Piercy ($6,700) – Also four straight cuts.
- Hank Lebioda ($6,700) – Three straight cuts and a T17 here last year.
LONGSHOT:
- James Du Preez ($6,000) – YOU CANNOT GET A LONGER SHOT THAN THIS! I’m not recommending you use him unless you decide you have to have two or three of the guys at the top. But, if it makes you feel better, he’s made his last two cuts on the World Tour including a T5 where he shot 18 under par. I don’t care if you played twice in the last year. If you are capable of shooting that low on a professional set-up, you’re good! I probably won’t do it, but remember, most people don’t scroll to the bottom of the list either. 1% ownership would be a miracle so, if he hits, you have an advantage as long as the studs don’t shit the bed!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Will Zalatoris
Tommy Fleetwood
Joaquin Nieman
(Leaves you $7,433 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Adam Hadwin
Jhonattan Vegas
Sepp Straka
(Leaves you $8,666 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 50% Key Stats:
(V) = Value at $7,900 or less
- Xander Schauffele
- Sam Burns
- Scottie Scheffler
- Justin Thomas
- Talor Gooch
- Dustin Johnson
- Will Zalatoris
- Joaquin Niemann
- Jordan Spieth
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Adam Scott
- Seamus Power (V)
- Brooks Koepka
- Adam Hadwin
- Jason Kokrak
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Maverick McNealy
- Marc Leishman (V)
- Lanto Griffin (V)
- Alexander Noren (V)
*** NOTE: I excluded Brian Harman from the list due to his withdrawing
*** NOTE2: Brooks Koepka has also withdrawn
Remember above when we said we needed to pick guys other than the big names? This list is full of big names and very few guys are there that are priced under $8,000. That, folks, is why I try to give you some “crazy picks” and never rely solely on statistics! BTW – I do like Leishman, Griffin and Noren in addition to the ones I mentioned above if they fit better.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!