We are now in what I call the “silly season” for PGA. The Tour calls it the start of the new season or the “wrap around” portion, but until they go to Hawaii, for me, it’s all just an opportunity for the new guys to get their feet wet in less loaded fields. It’s also a good chance to make some money while everyone else focuses on NFL, the end of MLB, and the start of NHL and NBA.
$9,000 and Above
Will Zalatoris ($10,100)– For the same reasons I liked him last week, I like him again. The difference this week is that it’s a loaded field at the top. Casual players are going to go with Koepka, Hovland, Simpson, and Oosthuizen because they know the names. Again, don’t be surprised to see those names at the top. Plus, how can you dispute what Sam Burns is doing right now!
On the modeling site that I use, Zalatoris is ranked 1st in Shots-Gained Total and 2nd in Shots-Gained Tee-to-Green. His biggest issue has been the short game (rank is 43rd) but this isn’t a tough course around the green.
Abraham Ancer ($10,400) – Ancer ranks 8th in SGT. Ancer has also been playing lights-out with four Top 15s in his last five – including a win. My only concern here is that he has been off for a while and some rust may exist. However, this is a scoring course and one where a little rust may mean the difference between a 65 and a 68.
Additional Play(s) to Consider
- Webb Simpson ($10,200)
- Viktor Hovland ($10,600)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900)
- Sungjae Im ($9,200)
$7,500 to $8,900
There are actually a few very viable options here. A win from this price range is far from out of the question.
Matthew Wolff ($8,200) can win this! I’m not joking! He’s been a little off for a while – including two missed cuts at the end of the last season. Still, he’s been Top 20 both times he’s played here and I think he feels less pressure in these wrap-around events.
Mito Pereira ($7,800) is someone I am willing to play anytime he is below $8K. I played him last week when he was well above that and he underperformed for the price with a T31. If he does that this week at $7,800, I can live with that.
Additional Plays to Consider
- Adam Scott ($8,400)
- Paul Casey ($8,900)
- Patrick Reed ($8,600) – Seems impossible that he’s that low, but he’s coming off an illness. Question is: Is this a gift or an Admiral Ackbar call?
- Joaquin Niemann ($8,300)
- FOLKS – this tier is LOOOOOAAAADED!!!
$7,400 and Under
Make the cut! That’s all you want.
IAN POULTER!!! Are you shitting me? $7,000? – All day! Every day! And twice if either site would allow it!
Rickie Fowler – ($7,300) … (insert crickets here) … What the hell do you do with this guy? So much talent, yet so much disappointment lately. Anything but this price and I’m not touching him. However, if he’s found his game again, 10x to 15x isn’t out of the question. Is it worth a risk? Yep!
Additional Play(s) to Consider
- Taylor Moore ($7,300) – 6 Top 10s in his last 7 events on the Korn Ferry Tour
- Henrik Norlander ($7,000) – His play last week will tempt me to dive in again at this price
- Stewart Cink ($7,100) – experience at this price is usually never a bad thing
FADE
Brooks Koepka is going to do one of two things this week. Top 5 or hit the casinos on the weekend. I’m thinking this isn’t a big enough platform for him to give much of a damn so, I’m going with him putting $20 on “00” at the roulette table on Saturday.