The longest race of the season, 600 miles on the 1.5-mile asphalt of Charlotte Motor Speedway will fire off tomorrow evening in what is a Memorial Day weekend tradition. Last year was kinda scattered as far as where dominance came from as Ross Chastain started 22nd, led a race-high 153 laps then finished 15th. Chase Elliott (86) led the second-most laps starting from the 13th spot and finished 33rd. Race winner Denny Hamlin led just 15 laps despite starting from the pole while Kyle Busch finished second, started fourth, and led 36 laps. The year prior to that was dominated by Kyle Larson who started from the pole, won, and led 327 laps. With no qualifying taking place, starting lineup was pre-determined which makes for even more unpredictability.
Most comparable tracks: Kansas, Texas, Las Vegas
*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused
William Byron ($10,500), Starting on the Pole
Byron has been fast all year long, has three wins, and has led 60 or more laps on four occasions including pacing 100 or more three times. Starting from the pole gives him an opportunity in a fast car to lead a good chunk early and potentially dominate close to the level that his teammate Larson did two years ago. In that race Byron finished fourth. Despite not having great overall success here over his career, Byron has come a long way and his starting spot is huge for potential success.
Denny Hamlin ($10,300), Starting 4th
Hamlin won here last year like I said, his first win here but he’s been close multiple times here with 11 top-fives and five top-three’s Hamlin has a win on the season and should make some noise from the four-spot as he looks to bounce back after sub-par efforts in the All-Star race and at Darlington.
Kevin Harvick ($9,100), Starting 2nd
Don’t overlook Harvick here in his farewell season as he’s had plenty of success at Charlotte and has been very good this season. On the season, one that honestly I had a ton of doubt about Harvick has seven top-10’s and four top-five’s including a second-place finish at Darlington two weeks back. Harvick has won here three times and has a string of five-straight top-10’s with a third-place finish last season. Harvick has led 100 or more laps here three times in his career.
Kyle Larson ($11,000), Starting 12th
Ross Chastain ($10,100), Starting 14th
Chase Elliott ($9,700), Starting 6th
Place Differential Targets
Alex Bowman ($8,600), Starting 31st
This should be the chalk of all chalk in the P.D. category. Bowman, who hasn’t raced since 4/23 will start 31st was absolute shit here early in his Cup career but he was also driving complete during that stretch junk so keep that in mind when looking at the numbers. The driver of the 48 has an average finish of 13th over his last six races here with four top-10’s and a top-five during that stretch.
Joey Logano ($9,000), Starting 17th
Last year Joey had to junk his car after a late-race-wreck (say that three times fast) knocked him out and landed him a 20th-place finish. Logano has won here before (the 500-mile version of this race) and overall has six top-fives, 11 top-10’s and an average finish of 13th. Some rough finishes here, including last year and a rough patch from late 2016 to early 2018 made that average go up but Logano is a great play here with P.D. and winning upside.
Austin Dillon ($7,200), Starting 33rd
Dillon has been sneaky good here. Before I give you this info keep in mind that Dillon has wrecked out here three time in 14 races leading to 22nd (last year), 34th (2019), and 32nd (2016) place finishes. Add in a 32nd-place finish in which he completed the race and you find yourself wondering why the hell I’m telling you to play this guy. Well, because outside of those four race, Dillon has a win, four top-10’s, and an average finish of 11th. Pretty good with his starting spot and salary.
Daniel Suarez ($7,800), Starting 24th
Tyler Reddick ($8,800), Starting 15th
Jimmie Johnson ($6,900), Starting 37th
Michael McDowell ($5,700), Starting 30th
Corey LaJoie ($5,500), Starting 25th