WEATHER All clear – stop overreacting.  Cold is annoying, Warm is comfortable.  Be smart.   Tyler Glasnow (DK: $9800, FD: $10.5k) The whole world should ride or die with Glasnow as SP1 tonight, but it’s more about the lack of other top A level options than him just being in a cnanot miss scenario.  It’s hard to diminish that he has been very good to star tthe year and whenever he is healthy he is of course a potential 10K guy. Kris Bubic (DK: $8800) Do not play Bubic on FD when Glasnow is only $700 more.  He feels just kinda safe, although the White Sox do bring some sneaky power — but most of it is on their left side right now, so Bubic is probably gonna have the early advantage in this game with strikeouts and getting you into the safe zone as an SP2. Tatsuya Imai (DK: $8700, FD: $7700) Asians in Seattle?  Has to be a thing, right?  I mean, they all seem to do well there and the crowd normally is favorable.  That’s all nonsense, I know, but the park factor alone is worth looking at Mr. Motorboat (because when you look at his name, how do you not just see it pronounced as Tits-in-ya Eyes… no?  Just me?  Okay)   HATE BUT WILL PITCH OKAY Shane Baz Simeon Woods Richardson   USED TO LOVE, BUT NOW HATE, BUT WILL PITCH OKAY Walker Buehler   Everyone wants to make a big deal out of low scoring games in the cold, but lets focus more on the teams leaving that cold and going into nice hitting spots tonight.  There’s buy low chances everywhere. MINNESOTA TWINS Yes, Patrick Corbin is back.  He was endorsed by Max Scherzer, likely because Max wants someone else to look worse than him.  And look, I wanna tout Corbin.  I do.  But… I just can’t.  Not here, not at this time and not against a lineup that thinks they’re good for a hot minute. Keaschall, Buxton, Martin CLEVELAND GUARDIANS The Bryce Elder hot start ends.  He has been very good through the first couple of weeks, but the key here is Cleveland’s been in some very tough hitting conditions either at home or out vs the Dodgers good arms.  They should benefit from a comfortable Atlanta environment & a SP who is long term a target for hitters. Naylor, Kwan, Ramirez, DeLauter […]

There are two small 3 game slates today which is not always ideal, but I think its a good quiet day of Baseball to prepare for what should be an eventful weekend.  I expect offense to surge either this weekend or next week after a slow start around Baseball, so brace yourselves…   WEATHER All clear   EARLY SLATE Jack Flaherty:  Jack is your best option early.  The Twins just BABIP’d Framber to death last night, which we had nailed down but will be the opposite today and Jack’s over 5 strikeouts is the best play I see early. Ryan Weathers:  The Athletics have the highest chase rate on this short 6 game slate.  Even though I say the offense is coming, I just don’t see it coming yet in this game.   LATE SLATE Nolan McLean:   It’s very weird for a night game on a Thursday like this to end a series and Arizona is going to Philly tomorrow – so its a short little bus ride (they gotta take a bus, right?) after.  Either way, their bags are packed and they’re gonna go quietly into the night. Seth Lugo or Eduardo Rodriguez:   E-Rod wont win, Lugo will.  E-Rod though could be in for one more good start here.     EARLY SLATE Reds vs Marlins:   Lean for me is on the Marlins side.  Gotta think Marsee gets a big hit off Lowder Tigers:  Dead men walking, that’s the Tigers.  Can they avoid a 4 game sweep versus the TWINS?  They have too, right?  Mick Abel has 7 walks through his first two starts.   MAIN SLATE Royals:   Short slate Royals, they always deliver.  Garcia, Witt, Salvy are ready to wake up.  Maikel has been hammering the ball without the results. Rockies:  Why … not?  Anyone jumping into the night slate will immediately have Randy Vasquez tonight.  He sucks, he doesn’t deserve a $7300 price even at home vs the Rockies.  They’re confident off the Houston beat downs and even going on the road they are worthy of use on a 3 game short slate.  It’s them or the Mets as option 2 and I don’t want that Mets team in a chilly Citi Field night game.   Jakob Marsee – Marlins – Chairman of The Dongers Club Maikel Garcia – Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club   BETS Tigers ML Royals ML

WEATHER Everyone is scared of the cold it seems — or they just want to make sure people come out and actually spend money on concessions.  Thus we have lots of games which moved up their start time tonight and DK abolished the Turbo slate. Me happy.   GARRETT CROCHET (DK: 10,000) I was debating do we go with the Contreras spark and look at stacking the Sox — or just take Crochet who should walk into the clubhouse and literally say — guys, I got this.  The risk here is immense.  No, it’s not giving up runs, or walks, or negative points.  The risk is who he decides he is going to plunk.  And yes, he is going to plunk someone.  And no, it’s not going to be Willson’s brother.  The obvious choice?  Oh, it’s fucking dead obvious who you mean.  You nail Gary Sanchez.  End of story.  Just don’t get tossed afterwards Crochet. SANDY ALCANTARA (DK: $8300) It’s a trap?  That’s literally the only argument against Sandy at home.  The guy is all the way back and is so comfortable pitching at home in front of literally nobody.  Cincy’s all about that low scoring and defense ball that Tito employs, so whenever they do face a good SP, I’ll have to remind us to take what we see and that’s a boring offense. CADE CAVALLI (DK: 5700) We will just keep taking Cade under 6k all season long.  The downside tonight is more that there’s just so many pitchers that should be in the upper teens, but this is also a slight boost up for him to get more strikeouts than he did in his last start. CRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (DK: $9700) What are we scared of here?  Heliot Ramos?  Willy Adames?  Harrison first pitch Bader?  Trust your defense Sanchez and don’t try to just strike everyone out tonight.   BRAVES Man if Ronald Acuna Jr and Austin Riley want to piss me off anymore, they can go 0-9 tonight against Yusei Kikuchi.  Hope that Jonah Heim gets the start behind the plate too. RAYS It was good to have COSTCO back in our lives as the Rays returned to their Tropicana “COSTCO” Field warehouse last night.  The Cubs starting pitching is a mess as the magic foot they had last year has worn off.  Javier Assad walks nearly 10% of the guys he faces, is a limited arsenal […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

TURBO SLATE We have a good Turbo slate and unfortunately there will never be a shift back to add these onto the main slate ever again.  Quick game thoughts on each of them below: KC at CLE:  Gonna feel blustery, but the wind actually could push one or two out to RF — maybe an oppo homer for Maikel Garcia believe it or not. SD at PIT:  Huge series for the Pirates before they get the Cubs next weekend.  They’re pushing their top 3 arms out so a sweep is in play.  Like Chandler & Brandon Lowe. CIN at MIA:  Top game.  Marlins cannot hold runners on still.  Elly/McLain/Suarez/Steer.  Reds go off.  Marlins side good as well for hitting. STL at WSH:  Zack Littell sucks.  He’ll pitch ok, and still have a sucky score. MIL at BOS:  Either Wodruff shuts down the Sox bats (likely) or Bello gets lit up.  Either way,  Boston is on fade mode still for me right now. WEATHER Some extremely cold spots tonight but all games play. DET at MIN:  This is the coldest.  Sub freezing temps.  I just normally throw these games out because even though you want to lean on the under, it’s not as definitive as you think & the pitchers themselves aren’t always able to grip as cleanly.  In normal circumstances – Casey Mize would be on our radar.   CHRIS SALE (DK: $9700, FD: $11.1k) Sale gets the nod above Gilbert/deGrom because the prices are so close & the Angels are a pretty free swinging team right now — plus Trout is likely gonna sit today. JACOB DEGROM (DK: $9000, FD: $10.4k) The lean for deGrom over Gilbert is just simply that I cannot get past Gilbert having to deal with Nimmo/Seager where as right now deGrom vs the entire Mariners lineup is pretty smooth sailing.  It’s a toss-up, because Gilbert’s gonna pitch very well himself and I don’t even hate just a SP game stack here to fade Sale chalk too. ADRIAN HOUSER (DK: $6700) DK only – value SP2 option where Erick Fedde is the other value SP2 option in long relief for the White Sox.   OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Andrew Painter is a realistic option but priced in a spot where you should just go with Gilbert or deGrom instead.  I am also not confident he gets the win so that diminishes the value here.   Despite […]

Happy Easter! The Cubs and Guardians are making up their PPD game with a traditional double header today.  The first game (Cabrera vs Cecconi) is on the DraftKings main slate locking at 1:10 PM. FanDuel has the game listed as 1:40.  They clearly have no idea what is going on here, which is kinda interesting if they use the first game stats which starts 30 minutes before their slate locks… Or maybe it’s G2.  Who the hell knows.  They sure as heck dont, but it appears they think this is G1.   WEATHER All games should play today with brief stretches of rain for delays in Boston:  Could delay mid game New York:  Should delay the START of the game and then go Washington:  Who the hell knows what they’ll do.  Game has to play though, there’s no reason for a PPD   JACK LEITER (DK: $8300, FD: $9300) It feels like the entire Baseball world forgot that Jack Leiter was not that long ago a very top end prospect and there’s no reason for him to not be considered even the best young arm in this game against Chase Burns. KRIS BUBIC (DK: $7800, FD: $9800) The only red flag I really have on Bubic is KC usually does not extend him above 90 pitches, but I’m banking on a little extra leash given that yesterday was a DH and they do play tomorrow.   THE SUNDAY SLEEPER NICK MARTINEZ (DK: $6700, FD: $7300): Nobody’s gonna win a million dollars with Nick Martinez – but he’s also a sneaky good value here for a heavy stack build.  6 innings, 4 strikeouts, 0 ER.  The Twins just flat out stink.   FADES Max Fried:  This is the classic Fried early season on the east cost bad start. Chase Burns:  I don’t hate him, just going Leiter in the same game instead.   RED SOX Someone should see if there is a prop on total games started by Walker Buehler this season.  It’s over man, just hang them up and see if you can go pitch in the KBO.  For those who are wondering when  Boston is going to wake up offensively, today.  The answer is … Today. Jarren Duran Willson Contreras Wilyer Abreu Ceddane Rafaela PIRATES Despite the larger park dimensions keeping the lefties tanks in the park, there’s still going to be gap problems for Chris Bassitt vs Lowe, Cruz, […]

I want to clarify something and maybe I’ll leave this here for a while as my official stance.  Shortly after COVID there were two very significant things which MLB quietly did that have drastically impacted how weather is impacting Baseball for DFS and I feel confident enough in the sample size to go forward with a change in my own personal strategy. Weather doesn’t matter anymore for MLB DFS. It’s a sweeping statement and it’s not 100% true, but it really doesn’t matter the way you once thought it did.  Here is what changed. MLB Introduced a humidor in every stadium officially in 2022.  Prior to 2018 it was mostly just Coors Field, then Chase Field and then slowly teams were doing it on their own and were admittedly not officially regulated by MLB as to what their settings were – despite claims that they had ‘standards’. During COVID MLB started to implement a new Baseball to reduce scoring, but COVID made it so that they had two different batches of baseballs from 2020 up until the 2022 season.  The mudding process for each team as independent as well and thus we had no uniformity into which baseballs were being used. It was documented quite exhaustedly early in 2023 when scoring was drastically down how the new Baseball’s just didn’t carry the same and were far less impacted by weather than the prior baseball.  The two factors above were done such so that MLB can reduce the drastic differences in outdoor elements from various locations.  In other words, they want Miami’s park factor to be the same as Arizona’s.  Two completely different environments.  And wouldn’t you look at that, Miami has now shifted to no longer a drastic unders park even with it’s dimensions and humidity. I am not saying that these elements don’t matter Wind Heat Humidity Dewpoint They do.  They just don’t matter like they once did.  What matters for park factors? Batters Eye — Kinda helps when the home plate is aligned properly and you can see clearly.  This is why SafeCo is a pitchers park. Dimensions relative to the defense:  Why are Coors and Chase so damn good for offense?  Because they are like playing outfield defense in Yellowstone Park.  I’ve long felt that the Rockies would be better off with a smaller stadium from a dimensions perspective. Lighting — yeah, this is big depending upon […]

Life was too easy back on Opening Day a little over a week ago when both FanDuel and DraftKings has the exact same MAIN slate on an afternoon for watching Baseball.  Now, we have FanDuel up to their old tricks not recognizing the schedule setup for today with more teams having their home openers and so lets just say I’m not even gonna bother with FanDuel slate analysis.  This is breaking down the 10 game main DraftKings slate.   WEATHER No PPD concerns today IMO but it’s really cold up in Minnesota (shocker) with light precip chances throughout the game.  If there was one that they might PPD it would be that one, but I doubt they do.   MacKenzie Gore (DK: $8800) & Brady Singer (DK: $7600) Ladies and Gentlemen, we call this a ‘Wild Things’ matchup and while this is most definitely a classic movie reference it is not one that features Charlie Sheen.  Having MacKenzie Gore and Brady Singer face off in a roof closed Amazon Warehouse (formerly known as COSTCO West) down in Texas is like watching Neve Campbell and Denise Richards for the first time. The Reds are the immediate side to pick on with only TJ Friedl looking like he could touch Gore today & to simplify your choices, taking Singer in a park that does help limit homers when the roof is closed isn’t the worst idea ever. Michael King (DK: $8200) Boston always hits well at home and last year was a fantastic home 1st inning team, but right now the offense isn’t doing anything of consistency.  This starts and ends with Roman Anthony’s first AB.  If he gets out and King has a 1-2-3, this is gonna be a cruise to 23 FPTS game for him. ALSO DONT MIND Framber Valdez:  His ground ball consistency is going to help him big time today with the wind carrying out to left.   DETROIT TIGERS Back in Comerica with the wind blowing out and a low strikeout opp SP in Michael McGreevy, this Tigers lineup should produce early and often. Kevin McGonigle Colt Keith Kerry Carpenter Riley Greene L.A. DODGERS I feel like I mentioned this already, but Freddie Freeman should be batting 2nd — not Kyle Tucker — I might mention this 100x more until Freeman homers, but then he does fucking own the Nationals, so hard to not take a  bite […]

FanDuel has omitted the 12pm window games on this heavy Wednesday afternoon to start the season.   WEATHER Angels at Cubs:  Chilly.  Very Chilly Chance of storms but all games should play in Cincy & Philly   I am not one for writing up more than 3 pitchers, but today — I feel I have too.   KEVIN GAUSMAN (DK: $9000, FD: $9800) Must be amazing as a pitcher to start with the Athletics and then the Rockies.  The wonders that this will do for Gausman’s stats and his pricing in a couple weeks when he’s surely gonna flop as chalk.  But for now, you just stare that gift horse and the face and take your chances. JACOB MISIOROWSKI (DK: $8500, FD: $9200) The second inning is the key spot with the likely Tampa lineup having Mullins/Simpson going 5-6 today.  They don’t project to strikeout but after that the turn around on the lineup to get back to the top of the lineup is going to be where you just hear the K bells ringing.  For the props crowd, jump on his over 6.5 strikeouts today. MATTHEW BOYD (DK: $7300, FD: $7400) Another chilly day up Wrigley this afternoon, but no reason for those in Chicago to not take the afternoon off and still go out for the game.  If they’re going, they should see two lefties facing off and one of them is a heavy fly ball guy — yeah, we’re not using Kikuchi even in the chilly temps.  Boyd, however, is squarely on my target list today while others are scared off from his Nationals debacle on Opening Day.  Bank on a limited number of base runners from the Angels & a clean game here. CHRIS SALE (DK: $9900) Naturally the Athletics have sat their lefties, which is good yes, and even better when you see that means Andy Ibanez is the 2 hole threat to Sale.  There is … no threat here folks although Wilson/Ibanez are both lower on the strikeout potential than what we normally would see for the Athletics lineup at the top.   Happy mini stack Wednesday.  A heavy amount of the top end pitchers are going today, cooler temps in some spots & just a general lack of heavy belief that we see high scoring spots today.  I would limit exposures to 2 to 3 players per team and srpead it out today […]

WEATHER All clear. Chase Field Roof is OPEN tonight and should be open for a while!   And just like that, we have a ton of pitchers that nobody really wants to use on the slate. CLAY HOLMES (DK: $8200, $9300) It’s the Cardinals.  Opponents matter when searching for safe. The FanDuel price does not really seem that tempting, 5 innings and a chance at a win does seem tempting though. BRYCE ELDER (DK: $6500, FD: $8600) Guys, I hate to say it – but he is in the top tier of options today.  Sure, he’s terrible vs LHH and the Athletics have a guy named Nick and another named Tyler, along with Larry, Max and  Jeff (those are their primary lefties) – but they’re also the highest K% team & lets not act like it’s summer in Atlanta tonight.  The ball may not carry like you think it will. This is as much about the depth (or lack there of) of pitching tonight as it is me buying into him doing good but a 6-7 strikeout spot is more than enough to offset one or two bad AB. ABSOLUTELY NO THANK YOU Ranger Suarez Ryan Weather:  Tempting because of the park being a benefactor, but has not been great in the Spring & I doubt he goes 5 full.   TIGERS / D’BACKS I’m like a fat guy standing in line at the office pot luck waiting for my share of food at the start of the season when we get a Chase Field roof open series.  Then you are telling me this buffet has 50 year old Justin Verlander versus Michael Soroka?  On a Monday???  C’mon, how do I get 9 hitters from this game in a lineup please.  Anyone hyping up any other game besides this one is blind. DET:  Kerry Carpenter DET:  Riley Greene DET:  Dillon Dingler ARI:  Ketel Marte ARI:  Corbin Carroll   BLUE JAYS On this slate with four west coast games, this is the ‘Early’ game to get some action on. Tomoyuki Sugano was so bad with the Orioles in his first year in America that his only option was the Rockies in free agency.  Buddy, it’s straight to Hiroshima after this. Vlad Guerrero Jr Addison Barger Alejandro Kirk Daulton Varsho   OTHER SPOTS / THOUGHTS Another Wrigley game with good wind that will draw eyes over there, but it is a night […]