WEATHER All games play. Roof Closed in Arizona.   Joe Ryan (DK: $9000 – FD: $9800) Ryans’ been extremely good of late since a little injury hiccup & with no Muni this really makes it a smoother spot for him.  Mostly just has to worry about Benitendi tonight.  I think we can easily get another 7 inning start with high strikeout upside to offset one inning where the Sox put up a 2 spot. Chase Burns (DK: $10,200 – FD: $11.1k) Must be nice to start your week off on a Monday by facing the worst team in the history of Baseball.  Maybe he can pitch every other inning with one shoe on to make things a little more competitive.  Or maybe the Royals get angry and start a brawl.  Unfortunately, Cags is too busy as a weekend only guy to punch anyone and Vinnie would just try to have someone else do the fighting for him.  Sorry pathetic losers…. The Reds have scratched Chase Burns tonight, so SP2 now has to pivot into one of Jacob deGrom (Really dont love this spot for him) – Jose Soriano or Emmet Sheehan in Chase Field with the roof closed.  Sheehan is really struggling on the road, so this might just be take Jose Soriano, play with heavy chalk on pitching and ride the bats. Do we trust KC hitters now? Hell no. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Nobody else.  Those are the two.   deGrom will be alright and I think Soriano will do enough vs the Rockies – but he is the chalky one I would fade in favor of Burns/Ryan.   REDS With EDLC going on the IL, the Reds are calling up Edwin Arroyo ($2,000 on DraftKings – SS).  He is one of their better prospects who has been having a nice little season and the Royals advanced scouting is so bad they probably let this kid go bananas on them tonight. In fact, I am not sure what the Royals can do well right now.  It’s like in Apollo 13 when Gene (Ed Harris – one of his better career roles) asks “what do we have on the ship that works….” and the response is … “I’ll get back to you”… Ed Harris actually had a very underrated stretch of movies.  One could make a claim that we should compare Ed Harris’ run against Tommy Lee Jones.  They were always premiere guys […]

WEATHER All clear   I have been doing this long enough now that I sometimes forget the fundamentals and the things I am good at.  Over the years, when there has been an elite pitcher who is on a run and lapping the field I have always done well locking that guy in and being good at finding the 2% owned hitters around them.  Kershaw, Scherzer, Cole, etc…  They don’t come around every week, but when they are on a run, you ride it and it’s always been to my benefit.  So I am trusting that today JACOB MISIOROWSKI (DK: $11,600) The legit question today is Misiorowski and nothing else.  The price is where it should be & when the pitcher is locked in like he is the opponent never matters.  It’s simply a question of when will he run out of gas or when will he take have some bad luck.  I see neither happening here today since they’re in a dome & he’s not vulnerable to any afternoon unusual atmospheric pressure bullshit.  So – yes – this should be another 30 points you are depositing into your score.  Hitting actually looks sparse today as well, so good luck making up the 30 if he isn’t in your plans. BRAXTON ASHCRAFT (DK: $9100) This is my favorite play today & one path to fading Misiorwski is Ashcraft and the Sunday sleeper.  He’s back on a great run as well with four of his last 5 allowing 1 ER or less through 6+ IP.  And Braxton handles both RH and LH hitters about the same, so no split advantage with any Twins lefties in PNC.  I think he shines and is with Misiorwoski in the 30 range.  I want both to be honest.   DEEPER SP ANALYSIS So this is actually a good slate for pitching – we’ll see how afternoon games impact things – but I think some other guys are going to pitch well, and flirt with 15-18 fpts.  The problem is the two above are hitting 30 in my projection today.  So, yeah, good luck. Sean Burke:  This was my immediate thought on the ‘Sleeper’ category for today but we should be worried.  Yes, he is cheap.  I get it, the value conversation comes up and folks want to limit the $ spent on pitching.  I’ll bet you Ashcraft doubles his score today.  It’s that simple and […]

WEATHER All clear & very hitter friendly   There’s no clear SP1 on the 8 game afternoon slate today.  It’s a mix of guys who can be good, but are in the dreaded 4PM Saturday spot for pitchers when ever since 2022/2023 the new Baseball mudding system seems to generate nothing but 1st and 5th inning home runs in the Baseballs.  Don’t believe me?  Just sit back and count the 1st and 5th inning overs today. And naturally, we have seemingly every “I’m a guy who knows how to get through 6 IP, try to limit the opponent to 2-3 ER and wind up with a Quality Start to say I am good” pitcher going today.  So here’s the three I think can deliver that type of line without a -14 result. DREW RASMUSSEN (DK: $8500) … Should be the cleanest path.  The Angels are 30th vs RHP in AVG, bottom 10 in xWOBA, SLG and K% & the indoor environment of Tampa’s Finest Costco Warehouse is good for the 30 year old veteran to keep his recent string of quality starts going once more today. SETH LUGO (DK: $7600) … Like Ras, Lugo is in a climite controlled spot and a bottom 10 offense on the other side.  His counterpart Kumar Rocker in this game has some value too, but overall I lean on Lugo because he went through a rough patch in the early part of the month but seems to be trending back to good.  One thing of note, he threw only 86 pitches last time out, his lowest in his last 5+ starts, so the freshness should be good for the old arm. PARKER MESSICK (DK: $8600) … I had Keller here in the third spot, but I just cannot trust him as he is the epitome of 1st and 5th inning blow-ups.  Give me anything vs Boston at this point.  It’s maybe not a massive upside play – but they’re a terrible offense and a dead team.   UPSIDE FADES Yesavage and King   PIRATES Brandon Lowe Bryan Reynolds Oneil Cruz   PADRES Manny Machado Fernando Tatis Jr Ramon Laureano   ORIOLES Adley Rutschman Colton Cowser Pete Alonso     CATCHER Henry Davis Salvador Perez Adley Rutschman   FIRST BASE Christian Walker Pete Alonso Vinnie Pasquantino   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Fernando Tatis Jr. Travis Bazzana   THIRD BASE Manny Machado … Just Play Manny.  […]

Solid 12 game Friday night with a weekend giving us a nice balance of divisional games, hitter friendly parks and nice time zone distribution.   WEATHER All clear   FREDDY PERALTA (DK:  $9,000) A re-match in Flushing as Peralta & Meyer just met in South Beach.  Meyer has been GREAT but there is a little BABIP luck going on and he has to get the whiffs.  Seeing the team a second time in a week lowers that IMO & while you could say — yeah, well, then why am I using Peralta — my answer is simple.  While  Meyer and Peralta both take a dip, Meyer has a much wrose split going away from South Beach this year. SLADE CECCONI (DK: $7200) I’m not really going to blow smoke up here.  Pitching is kinda ass today.  For someone who never gets into the 90’s on his pitch count though Slade does a fairly decent job of producing viable scores.  The hard hit rates are a concern – but he offsets that with a 30% whiff rate on his breaking pitches.  With some early strikeouts tonight, Slade will be good if he gets a quick hook.     GUYS WHO WILL BE POSITIVE … ? Zack Wheeler:  I just don’t see why.  Sure, low owned I guess with the potential to drop 25 FPTS.  Slim margin for error though. MacKenzie Gore:  You’ll see why I am not using him below, in case you haven’t seen the cover boy today either Carlos Rodon:  I just cannot use him, but it kinda feels tempting.  The Athletics are actually top 10 against LHP on the season   BREWERS Congrats to Pei-Wei Teng on two good starts.  It was Texas & the ice cold Cubs.  Welcome in some lefties who fucking can be a thorn in anyones side & Chourio/Contreras are gonna be staring at the Crawford Boxes with hearts in their eyes like Donald Duck staring at Daffney all weekend long.   This is one of those every other year interleague series that you look at and just say “that’s an odd one, I’ll take an order of 12 runs every night please”. Christian Yelich Brice Turang Jackson Chourio Sal Frelick   OTHER SPOTS IM INVESTING IN Giants:  They started hitting better of late.  Prices aren’t reflected where they should be as the visitors in Coors vs Lorenzen.  While Colorado started off better this year […]

WEATHER All clear & warmer.  Much warmer/humid.   Shohei Ohtani (DK: $10,700) … The gap between Soriano & Ohtani in pricing should be about $1300.  Soriano’s dipped down while Ohtani faces a Colorado team not capable of hitting his velo and Goodman gets a dip here too which is a huge threat lost.  Clear cut go with Ohtani over Soriano and over deGrom as well. He is going to finish over 20 FPTS.  Take it. Davis Martin (DK: $9400) … Martin has not allowed more than 1 ER in his last 3 home starts.  Strikeouts might not get where you want at this price – but the guy and the CWS starters are just pitching well (well, minus that one fat lefty) Martin Scratched for a rookie.  Avoid at all costs.   Go deGrom as #2. Bubba Chandler (DK: $6000) … You really should be trying to find a way to pay up on both SP tonight — but I like Chandler vs the cold Cubs. He might have gotten his confidence back in Toronto & is going to be able to do enough to 2x this salary.   OTHER THOUGHTS No dice on Cole tonight.  He rode emotion of Yankee stadium last time.  under 4 strikeouts deGrom is the other one to look at paying up.  RH heavy HOU lineup, wont walk guys.  Clean & assume roof is closed.   RAYS (& Orioles) The Memorial Day game where the Orioles finally broke through and got a huge 13 inning win was a turning point for them.  You could feel it as the game went along and I think they ride that as far as they can to get back into things.  The Rays, though, are not dead yet.  This team is too good fundamentally & too balanced at the top to not stay in the mix.   Baltimore’s going with Trey Gibson & probably gets into a bad pen quickly.  Tampa’s scoring 6 today, the only question is can Steven Matz pitch well to get them back on the winning side Yandy Diaz Chandler Simpson Richie Palacios / Cedric Mullins ANGELS My sleeper team, and yes I know they went off last night too.  But I love this match-up for Soler.  Guy hits well in Detroit & with a ground baller like Mize this is a good spot for the Angels hitters.  They profile well today & if nothing else, get him […]

WEATHER All clear   Just build around Sanchez & Gausman today & you are definitely riding chalk but also putting yourself in a pretty safe spot.  The other two arms whom I would consider are facing each other in Gilbert (underpriced) & Jeffrey Springs.  Cooler game in Sacramento, wind is not an issue & both guys good enough.  But they’re clearly a tier or two below Sanchez/Gausman. Cristopher Sanchez (DK: $10,500) Kevin Gausman (DK: $8,800)     Guardians No reason to think this game will not produce once more.  I don’t care what tom foolery the Nationals do with pitching, if and when Mikolas is in he gets rocked today. Travis Bazzana Jose Ramirez Chase DeLauter Kyle Manzardo   SECOND TIER TEAMS Phillies:  Mostly Trea Turner, but Schwarber too Cardinals & Brewers Giants     CATCHER Ivan Herrera Keibert Ruiz   FIRST BASE Kyle Manzardo Luis Garcia Jr.   SECOND BASE Travis Bazzana JJ Wetherholt   THIRD BASE Jose Ramirez Kazuma Okamoto   SHORTSTOP Trea Turner CJ Abrams Andres Gimenez   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Chase DeLauter James Wood Jordan Walker Christian Yelich     Kyle Manzardo – 1B – Cleveland Guardians – Chairman of The Dongers Club Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers Chase DeLauter – OF – Guardians Trea Turner – SS – Phillies Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians BETS Cleveland / Washington OVER 8

WEATHER All clear   Chase Burns (DK: $10,000) Look, if you don’t like picking on the handicap then I understand not using Burns tonight.  The only wah he fails though is on him.  He should not have any problem with about 8 of the 9 Mets tonight.  Paying up?  It’s Cam vs Chase.   Lean Chase, with the guy below him here the #2… Kyle Harrison (DK: $9700) As I wrote yesterday, these aren’t the former Miller Park killer Cardinals.  They do have a few guys vs LHP that can really do some damage (Yohel Pozo could be the one to take him deep) – but overall his fastball is extremely good right now with a 33% whiff rate and should be in control today. Sean Burke (DK: $6600) Ummm..   OK?  Are the Twins gonna go back to being my multi-year running eleanor here?  I love Burke at $6600.  He’s been keeping th eball in the park & while he isnt a 100 pitch guy, you can do much worse for this price.  The other ‘cheaper’ arm is Jason Alexander picking on a defunct Texas lineup.  It’s not terrible to go with Art Vandelay either – but I’m leaning Burke for cheap SP2.     Is tonight a random Tuesday when we have five guys hitting double dongs, 13 runs scored everywhere and the ‘low scoring fast games’ are gone?  I don’t think so, not quite yet.  So it’s not a slate to taunt me into going heavy on one team overall. ATHLETICS They’ve got to see Hancock enough & have hit him before.  Park helps tonight too. Shea Langeliers Carlos Cortes Tyler Soderstrom   YANKEES Zero confidence in Bailey Falter.  Zero.  Nilch.  None.  Rice is the sleeper as everyone else uses Goldy. Ben Rice Aaron Judge   BEST GAME STACK Marlins vs Blue Jays:  I have the Marlins winning again.  Toronto feels like they’re dead & this is a spot we could try to go too again, not just for a bet, but for the offense to show up tonight.   If Vladdy is back, the Jays are more formidable obviously but mostly just Vlad/Springer/Sanchez.   CATCHER Hunter Goodman Shea Langeliers William Contreras   FIRST BASE Christian Walker:  On a big time heater.  Leiter isn’t a good matchup for him, but ride the hot bat. Ben Rice Bryce Harper:  Just missed one late last night.  Loves his toothpaste and loves San […]

WEATHER All clear but windy out in Sacramento and worth noting that the Phillies/Padres game in PETCO is obviously an afternoon game out tehre.   TOP PLAYS Emmet Sheehan (DK: $9300) Kumar Rocker (DK: $7000) SLEEPER Luis Castillo (DK: $7000)     MARLINS I fucking love the Marlins today.  They get a short porch in right (good for Marsee, Stowers, Hicks) and if Yesavage struggles at all with command this is gonna be a quick night for him as they’ll move on the bases. PHILLIES Schwarber loves San Diego & L.A. — where the Phils go next.  He’s locked in for me & I doubt Canning can get through the Phils lineup a second time cleanly.  If Crawford/Marchan get on base the first time through they are scoring and good value for the visitors.     CATCHER Liam Hicks Rafael Marcham   FIRST BASE Bryce Harper Josh Nalor Freddie Freeman   SECOND BASE Xavier Edwards – Only in a Marlins stack Fernando Tatis Jr.   THIRD BASE Colt Emerson Manuel Machado   SHORTSTOP Trea Turner Ezequiel Duran Otto Lopez   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Kyle Stowers Kyle Schwarber Jakob Marsee Luke Raley   OUTFIELD – TIER II Justin Crawford Owen Caissie   Kyle Schwarber – OF – Philadelphia Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club Kyle Stowers – OF – Marlins Liam Hicks – C – Marlins Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers Trea Turner – SS – Phillies BETS Phillies / Padres OVER Mariners ML

A piss poor job for the DFS folks out there who want to play MLB DFS today between both FanDuel and DraftKings butchering the slate.  For just general Baseball fans, the times being spread out is fantastic. This breakdown is covering DraftKings 1:35 PM Slate which has 6 games on it.   WEATHER The weather is improving, but we still have Rays at Orioles with light rain all game.  They should play through it though.   Jacob Misiorowski (DK: $11,500) Right now the only thing that is going to slow him down is an injury.  These aren’t the old Cardinals who would go into Miller Park and rake 1-9.  Get through Wetherholt and avoid beaning someone and this is a 1 hit dominant performance from Miz. Shane McClanahan (DK: $7700) A quick re-match between Shane and Bradish – with Shane being the one who bounces back this time and gets the win.  Keep in mind though, the Rays dont has as lethal away from home this year, so I expect an overall low scoring game with one key Ray homering.   Minnesota Twins A special Happy Anthony Kay day to those who celebrate.  And by celebrate, I mean we pick on him immediately, early, and often. Austin Martin Byron Buxton Josh Bell Luke Keaschall   Milwaukee Brewers Fill in what you want around these two. Jackson Chourio William Contreras   THE OTHER GOOD OFFENSES TODAY Everything else is really spread out overall. CUBS:  Suzuki, Busch PIRATES:  Cruz, Griffin   CATCHER William Contreras Hunter Feduccia Carson Kelly   FIRST BASE Michael Busch Vinnie Pasquantino Josh Bell   SECOND BASE Luke Keaschall Brandon Lowe Marcus Semien   THIRD BASE Brooks Lee Maikel Garcia Eugenio Suarez   SHORTSTOP Konnor Griffin Colson Montgomery   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Seiya Suzuki Byron Buxton Cedric Mullins Jackson Chourio   OUTFIELD – TIER II Austin Martin Michael Conforto J.J. Bleday Aaron Judge   Cedric Mullins – OF – Tampa Bay Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club Luke Keaschall – 2B – Twins Michael Busch – 1B – Cubs Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs Jackson Chourio – OF – Brewers Maikel Garcia – 3B – Royals Konnor Griffin – SS – Pirates BONUS … Aaron Judge – OF – Yankees BETS Twins ML Cubs / Pirates OVER 8

Weird slate today due to the weather and what not … You have the Tigers & Orioles playing two today with the first one at 12:35 and the second tonight at 6:05. Pittsburgh & Toronto is the Brunch game at 12:35 So, naturally, FanDuel made their main slate at 12:35.  Have fun with that.   WEATHER Twins at Red Sox – Ugly Rays at Yankees – Ugly Cardinals at Reds – Ugly   This potentially really quickly becomes a five game slate if you just auto block the games which have rain concerns and two of them are divisional spots that can easily be made up later in the year, although the Rays/Yankees already have one from yesterday which has been kicked down the calendar. Not a bad Sunday to go light with.   Yoshinobu Yamamoto Shota Imanaga   SUNDAY SLEEPER? Believe it or not, this could be a slightly get right spot for Andrew Painter – but one where you have to question why you want to be so bold.  He’s your Sunday Sleeper if there is one today.   CUBS Good time to buy low on the Cubs, who are really struggling offensively. PCA Bregman Busch   MARLINS vs METS South Beach offense on a Sunday?  Yeah, it’s tough pickins out there today folks Juan Soto Brett Baty Liam Hicks Kyle Stowers   CATCHER Liam Hicks Carter Jensen   FIRST BASE Michael Busch Rhys Hoskins   SECOND BASE Travis Bazzana Xavier Edwards Jazz Chisholm Jr   THIRD BASE Alex Bregman Jose Ramirez Brett Baty   SHORTSTOP Mookie Betts Otto Lopez Bo Bichette   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Kyle Stowers Teoscar Hernandez Pete-Crow Armstrong Juan Soto   OUTFIELD – TIER II Kyle TUcker Ian Happ Owen Caissie Carson Benge   Kyle Stowers – OF – Miami Marlins – Chairman of The Dongers Club   BETS Mets vs Marlins over 8.5