A twelve game main slate tonight as three games are in the Senior Citizen Sltae window starting at 6PM.  If you are involved in that slate then you should lock in Francisco Lindor even though it’s really cold in Detroit and that game does have PPD risk, but I think he has a great game if it plays. WEATHER I expect all 12 games to play, still chilly in most spots with lingering clouds/light rain on the east coast.   The overall top 4 SP as of this morning on our projections model include two rookies, a road pitcher in Coors Field and Zac Gallen vs the Rangers.  Of which Gallen is tempting as is Freddy Peralta, even in Coors Field, but I find myself not that enthusiastic with any of those options compared to what else we have. I had Mariners rookie Bryce Miller as starting tomorrow with Gilbert today. Looks like I was wrong.  I do not like Bryce Miller because we do not start rookies – even against the Athletics, although he is $4,000 on DraftKings which remains just dumb. ZAC GALLEN I had a difficult decision this off-season with my keeper team and I’m starting to regret that decision which was to deal away Gallen and keep a few other guys.  I got good value for him but the way he is pitching right now nobody is better.  His strikeout rates going on the road might be trending lower but I see no reason to really put much weight into that and Texas has some free swingers as well which should keep his recent trend going strong. TYLER WELLS There’s only $800 difference on DraftKings today between Wells and everyone’s new young darling Tanner Bibee.  Both are facing really bad offenses and neither is going to throw 7+ IP, but why not ride Wells here vs the Royals in big Kauffman Stadium?  Do we not think the Orioles will win?  Do we not think he will strikeout 4+?  He’s not gonna win you the slate, but at his price he’s my favorite ‘cheaper’ SP2. FREDDY PERALTA I trust Peralta in Coors to use him on DraftKings for some extra upside and with everyone likely going dirt cheap on SP2, I think this gives you what you might want if you want to be “different” without chopping your genitals off. The key to Coors is missing bats, […]

WEATHER This is a quiet Monday slate with just six main slate games and only one that has some weather concerns.  You guessed it, it’s in Washington, DC. Cubs at Nationals – Light rain during the day and then again during the game.  It’s chilly, overcast, field should be wet but playable.   BLAKE SNELL Snellzilla is generally a better home pitcher and the Reds are never a good offense period.  Not to mention Cincinnati remains without one of their good hitters vs LHP and former Padre Wil Myers for this series here as well, so we should expect Snell to be chalky and also to be more than fine using him in that scenario. MACKENZIE GORE Speaking of former Padres, Gore has quietly just been going about his business for the lowly Nationals this season striking out 35 over 27 innings and allowing just 19% hard contact.   The walks are still a little high and the swinging strike rate is only elite on his curveball right now, but it’s only getting better which is a problem for the rest of the league. The Cubs aren’t hitting much away from Wrigley and offer Gore a potential for a a 7+ strikeout game today.   BLUE JAYS Springer, Springer, Springer The Jays are in Boston.  I repeat, the Jays are in Boston.  The Bruins PA announcer made a reference to their collapse and the Hidenburg last night and I’m not sure what we should reference regarding the Red Sox trying to stop Toronto but it’s never a good sight for Boston. Playing Vlad and Bo in Boston always is tempting as hell, but if Toronto is going to score  7+ then it’s guys like Kirk, Belt, Varsho who should fill out your stack around Springer. ASTROS Bregman, Pena, Dubon Ross Stripling is not good, at best we can say he mixes things up well, but really that’s just a cover for not having anything good to throw.  That kinda arsenal against an Astros team which I have admitted I am not high on this season but can still hit and is on the homestand wrap-around should pose to be an ugly night.  Please welcome Alex Bregman to the 2023 season tonight. PHILLIES Turner, Marsh Bryce Harper returns tomorrow and what better of a welcome back gift than the Phillies offense maybe heating up right before he returns?  Gonsolin should get there […]

WEATHER A lot of games with RAIN risk today, including: Guardians / Red Sox – Ugly Pirates / Nationals – Rain that eventually leaves, so there is a good chance they wait and play this one. Braves / Mets – PPD Orioles / Tigers – This one should play Rays / White Sox – I think they can play Royals / Twins – Should play   Drew Rasmussen Chicago is hitting .180 with a 26% SO rate over the last 10 days, I cannot imagine being a schmuck and actually using them in that time window.  Plus, Robert Jr is not pulling his diva card and likely benched today.  Only issue with Ras is the weather. Johan Oviedo Outside of a start early in Fenway this season when I think Fenway had some 2018 baseballs in play, Oviedo has not given up any homers or any hard contact.  Assuming they just delay and play later this is one of my favorite SP spots today as his slider which averages 40% CSW should get a ton of whiffs from the Nats lineup. Kyle Bradish Bradish generally will have problems with too many walks early in his young career, so I prefer to back him against a team that isn’t very disciplined or veteran filled in their lineup.  Exhibit A – The Detroit Tigers!  I doubt there is any delay in this game and like picking on offenses off a double header as well.   Milwaukee Brewers Mike Brosseau, Willy Adames, William Contreras We have three dome games today that are likely all closed, and Milwaukee on Sunday’s is always a hitter friendly spot it seems.  Jose Suarez remains in the rotation, and he is so bad that reporters literally had to ask direct “Why is he still in the rotation this week, whats the rationale?” to manager Phil Nevin.  Not good Bob, not good.  Milwaukee has seen lots of LHP this week, so Mike Brosseau is likely due for another 2-3, HR, 2B and then get pulled game today. Toronto Blue Jays Bo or Vlad, Whit Merrifield, George Springer What the hell was that 1-0 game yesterday with Chris Flexen on the mound?  I guess Toronto just decided to prove to the Leafs that you CAN win a 1 score tight game, and it worked!  Back to the Skydome today, like both sides a good amount, but Toronto is just too […]

Pitching Clayton Kershaw (LAD), $10,500 Kershaw comes in hot after six or more innings in every start this season with three consecutive wins and two earned runs, zero earned runs, and one earned run in his last three starts respectively. Despite having a respectable wOBA (.340) the Cardinals have a low ISO (.165), the Cardinals […]

Rob Geriak did the night slate tonight, here’s my quick thoughts on the early slate(s) today. FanDuel has two early slates and DraftKings has the full 8 games on their ‘Early’ slate.   WEATHER ATL / NYM – Heavy Rain   For some reason Brayan Bello is no longer in the DK player pool and he is scheduled to start today for Boston.  I am also assuming that Spencer Strider will be PPD due to rain. Hunter Greene I don’t see why Greene isnt the highest owned SP on this slate and for good reason.  He should rack up the K’s. Edward Cabrera The PC has been below 100 all season and likely here is too, but the whiff rates should remain strong like he had on April 18th vs the Giants, the Cubs are a similar offense which offers us a good SP2 option.   Toronto Vladdy, Varsho, Bichette Jays at home on a Saturday with Chris Flexen?  Load up, expect them to score 7+ and yes, Teoscar Hernandez homers for the Mariners. Pittsburgh Bryan Reynolds, KeBryan Hayes Double header spot but Patrick Corbin expected to throw the early game Cleveland Weather isnt lovely in Fenway Park, but Bello is too up and down to not want to get some piece of the Guardians lineup.     CATCHER Austin Hedges Alejandro Kirk   FIRST BASE Vlad Guerrero Jr Vinnie Pasquantino   SECOND BASE Andres Gimenez Jonathan India   THIRD BASE KeBryan Hayes Rafael Devers   SHORTSTOP Bo Bichette Amed Rosario   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Teoscar Hernandez Bryan Reynolds George Springer Daulton Varsho   Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates    

Overview On tap for the NASCAR XFINITY Series this week is the “Monster Mile” of Dover Motor Speedway. Dover is a one-mile concrete track with 24 degrees of banking in each turn. It’s one of the only tracks (along with Bristol) that is concrete all the way around. The XFINITY Series has been racing here […]

Happy Friday, fourteen total games as the Giants and Padres are off to Mexico for a brief weekend series at high altitude and high temps in Mexico this weekend.  Not sure what slates they’ll throw those games on this weekend but you can hammer the overs in both games. The Royals and Twins … yes, the Royals and Twins are playing a 4:00 PM EST game today as an island showdown game.  I can only assume they are doing it at 4PM because the prime ice fishing time is 1pm-3pm, but no doubt the people in Minnesota will be drunk for … checks notes … Jordan Lyles vs Pablo Lopez! The main slate has 11 games on it and a TON of great match-ups.  So lets get to it.   Programming Note I will have early article for Saturday and main on Sunday, but Rob Geriak and the Daily Diamond will fill in for Saturday night as I’ll be out of town this weekend.   WEATHER Pirates at Nationals – Cross it off, should be 100% precipitation all day. Braves at Nationals – Similar, but I don’t think it is as definite of a PPD.   There are some big names going tonight but the list falls off really quickly and then we get into some uneven spots tonight for SP2.  The way it lays out, I would be comfortable going uncomfortable with SP2. JACOB deGROM New York is likely without Aaron Judge tonight, but that really doesn’t matter all that much.  Good pitchers vs good teams is always a spot to look at because the ownership drops a little bit and … wait, this isn’t a good Yankee lineup, what am I trying to sell you on here? Everything looks clean with deGrom right now, so unless he goes full Anthony Davis and leaves in the third inning we’re going to get a 30 point night from him on DK. NICK PIVETTA I doubt Pivetta is going to be touched by anyone today, but the Guardians offense is ice cold and should not be feared much right now.  Yes, they put the ball in play however his curveball is getting the job done vs LHH with a 32% CSW rate and the weather in Fenway tonight is setup to help keep the ball in the park too. ALEK MANOAH I have to mention Manoah because his price remains a […]

Just five games on the MAIN slate tonight, so this will be pretty brief.   WEATHER All games play. ROOF OPEN in Texas   Interesting thing tonight is that we have two of the five series with re-matches on the mound (Cease vs McClanahan & Gibson vs Wentz) TYLER MALHE The Royals are sitting their #1 option vs Mahle tonight in Salvador Perez and are coming off a trip out west where it was warm and comfortable and go into chilly Minnesota…. They might strikeout 12 times tonight as this could get ugly fast. SHANE McCLANAHAN Don’t mind me, just the guy who thought the White Sox would hit vs Toronto and wound up striking out 1/3 of the time and now they get to face Shane McClanahan for the second time in a week and probably strike out 50% of the time. Gerrit Cole for the Yankees is someone I think has a great outing tonight as well, but 11.2k for him vs 10k for Shane and this isn’t even a real tough debate.  Also the wind is blowing in at Chicago as well. KYLE GIBSON Gibby was great at home vs Detroit and going to Comerica is not any time of downgrade in any, which way.  I think it’s a HUGE mistake if you are riding Joey Lucchesi over him as a SP2 value pick.   NATIONALS / METS This isn’t a slate where any team is hitting 4-5 HR, so going to Citi Field is not a concern for me.  Neither Williams or Luchessi are arms I expect to repeat recent good starts tonight and that Nats bullpen is due for a blow up spot. Nationals:  Alex Call, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses … If you roll the Nats, you should be wise and pay up for both SP. Mets:  Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Daniel Vogelbach … This is my #1 spot to start tonight. TWINS Good Dewpoint and wind blowing out to left should help the ball travel enough when contact is made and the contact comes from the Twins side of the plate.  Greinke on the road remains way below average. Correa, Buxton, Larnach   CATCHER No Salvador Perez tonight for KC, that just means he will hit one tomorrow night instead… Jose Trevino Adley Rutschman MJ Melendez   FIRST BASE Joey Meneses Anthony Rizzo Daniel Vogelbach   SECOND BASE Jorge Polanco Gleyber Torres   THIRD […]

WEATHER Marlins at Braves – This one has some weather concerns here as there will be storms throughout the day in Atlanta AND we of course have a divisional series which can easily be made up later in the season.  I do like Kyle Wright as an SP vs the Fish but the weather has me avoiding him and most of this game.   SHOHEI OHTANI I will gladly ‘buy low’ on the best pitcher in the National League still.  Mr. Alcantara struggled big time in one start vs the Phillies, and now gets another dangerous division rival but this one has a higher K% upside and the weather in Atlanta is not 90 degrees summer weather yet, so this should be a comfortable start for Sandy. HAYDEN WESNESKI A day game in Wrigley helps the hitters, but the wind and overall temps aren’t summer like so we can sneak by one more bad San Diego offensive outing with Wesneski.  He has a ceiling of around 90 pitches but if his sweeper (its a slider people) is on then the whiffs will be there to pay off.   FanDuel SP Without Ohtani on the FanDuel slate I do not want you automatically going to Wesneski.  Urias vs the Pirates could be the popular choice, but they’re hitting well right now and Urias hasn’t hit a good stride himself.  I would look at Matt Strahm or even Seth Lugo for FD options.  They’re not pretty overall, but those two should get by without too much harm today.   GIANTS JD Davis, Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger We don’t have a single must own team on this early afternoon slate.  A day game in San Francisco should help hitting out for both sides and the Giants do one thing well when they do go off and that is hit homers. ANGELS Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon Too many RHH who can hit for hard contact here.  We obviously cannot use Ohtani but that feels okay today.  This is not just attacking Sears, but also the Athletics bullpen.   CATCHER Not much to really get excited about here, I am expecting both Sean Murphy and JT Realmuto to sit. Garrett Stubbs Tucker Barnhardt   FIRST BASE Much like catcher, its a thin position on a thin slate.  Freeman is the play. Freddie Freeman Connor Joe   SECOND BASE Thairo Estrada Ozzie Albies   THIRD BASE […]

WEATHER All (8) games play.   SANDY ALCANTARA I will gladly ‘buy low’ on the best pitcher in the National League still.  Mr. Alcantara struggled big time in one start vs the Phillies, and now gets another dangerous division rival but this one has a higher K% upside and the weather in Atlanta is not 90 degrees summer weather yet, so this should be a comfortable start for Sandy. STEVEN MATZ As mentioned before, the Giants have gone in recent years from a nice platoon team vs LHP to just dog-awful.  There’s about 6 guys projected in the lineup who probably strike out the first time through the order.  Take Matz for cheap SP2 and move on.   Other Pitching Notes Also considered these two ‘good’ pitchers, but just in general not seeing a need to use either.  Patrick Sandoval’s 6500 price tag on DraftKings is terrible and likely makes him a chalky option today that screams ‘its a trap’ to me.  Fade him, sincerely, the Sandoval Whisperer…. Logan Gilbert – Dont see the K% projections doing well here. Hunter Brown – Tampa too good at home even after losing finally Michael Wacha and Drew Smyly in coooold Wrigley Field.  These two guys have both already had their “Bullwinkle” rabbit out of a hat game this season – with Smyly’s coming last Friday.  Will they suck?  Nah, but they’re not worth touching.   MARINERS Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, Ty France Teoscar Hernandez has finally gotten hot, it’s about time and Kelenic/Julio look fantastic vs Walker today. ANGELS Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward Not going to spin cycle this garbage franchise, other than saying we’re locking in Andrew Vaughn and then at the end of the night when we wonder why we keep stacking the White Sox you can just remember … Obviously Oakland is good value to flip off of Sandoval.  Wouldn’t go more than 1-2 guys though because hitting options in other spots are strong. DODGERS Betts, Freeman, Outman, Peralta Roansy Contreras is a good arm for the Pirates, but expecting consistency still this early in his career is asking a bit much.  I think they get overlooked with all the dads away right now due to the whole team having fathered the same kids supposedly but I really like Mookie-Freddie for pay up stars. Don’t mind some Pirates sprinkled in here as well but Gonsolin is a […]