HUGE Saturday slate, which in the middle of April might appear weird but then you remember everyone is wearing #42 today for Jackie Robinson Day. Both FanDuel and DraftKings are also in sync, as we have a 12 game site synchronicity slate locking at 1PM EST everywhere with a friendly and quiet 3 game night tilt slate for those who are wanting the late Saturday night MLB DFS fix. WEATHER Some rain here on this Saturday afternoon that needs to be monitored PIT at STL – Heavy rain potential.  Divisional series too so we have an easy excuse to PPD and make it up later. These spots also have what I call weather ‘noise’ but in the end they will play and have zero DFS impact. CLE at WSH – Rain should be very light and pass through.  Game will play. ATL at KC – Higher rain potential here, but KC likely waits it out and finds a way to get this one in.  Good chance they start in a delay The only game with a little wind impact is in Cincinnati, which is already a little league field to begin with, winds are up to 10 MPH out to left field.   ANTHONY DeSCLAFANI DK: $8,900, FD: $9,900 I don’t see the Tigers winning two in a row, do you?  The Italian is back and got up to 88 pitches in his second start of the season on the 9th vs Kansas City.  An extra days rest should bode well and he has yet to walk anyone on the season, which also bodes well vs the Tigers because we know they love to swing too, so I really think we’re looking at a 7 inning performance without any or much damage from Tony. BRYCE EDLER DK:  $7,700, FD: $9,700 Time and time again I have seen the Royals as an organization struggle with pitchers that they do not have much data on.  Their advanced scouting strategy seems to be so heavily weighted upon the opposing pitcher actually having lots of big league experience that they have seen in person.  So this is a spot where we’re gonna see potential for a delayed start and then the Royals come out and just do nothing off Edler.   Other pitching notes …. Tyler Mahle … I do think Mahle is gonna be just fine today, expect this to be a lower […]

A few rough days with watered down slates due to afternoon games and then last night’s Thursday 5 gamer was just a debacle for The Dongers Club. We move forward into a Friday, not a TestiFriday because there is no home Wrigley game as the Cubs are out in L.A. for the return of former Dodger Cody Bellinger which should be fun and we have three early turbo games which are not on the main slate.  So goodbye Arizona/Miami, goodbye San Francisco/Detroit and goodbye Taijuan Walker vs the Reds in Cincy. We also avoid games in Coors & Chase Field as well as Truist Park from a hitting perspective, so it’s a nice balanced slate for weather, park factors and … oh man, Eric Lauer is pitching in PETCO!   WEATHER All clear, no issues.   Even with 12 games on this slate we are limited with a bunch of #3 and #4 quality pitchers going.  Quite a few guys who have mediocre at best strikeout potential and a good number of other old veterans who are trying to hang around and can put up a random dominant score (like Michael Wacha did his LAST start, you missed it.) BRADY SINGER DK:  $7,600, FD: $8,400 Singer on the other hand is a legit front end starter now for the Royals.  The added depth in his pitch selection along with effectively staying out of situations where walks can bite him he has now turned into a reliable option and should be fairly contrarian tonight for those who prefer non chalk pitchers. Singer remains very solid vs LHB so Olson/Rosario/Albies all are guys I expect him to do very well against and I don’t see anyone beyond Sean Murphy getting hard contact tonight because I doubt he throws his change up early to Acuna. Yes, the weather here is ideal for hitting for 13 mph out to left and a 68% dewpoint, but Singer gives us a guy we can target for 6 innings and a good # of strikeouts vs a team who loves to swing. MARTIN PEREZ DK: $6,800, FD: $10,100 I am trusting my gut here.  I felt this was a prove it series for the Rangers and the brain says go Garcia because Seager is out, but the gut says Perez pitches well in Houston and negates Tucker/Alvarez to cruise through 6 innings.  This is also a fairly significant […]

WEATHER No issues The #1 pitcher today for the general public will be Nick Lodol – facing the Phillies for the 2nd time in one week.  Five games, pitcher in a great hitters park against a good HR team he just saw?  Pass.  The second upside arm is Joe Ryan.  And that will be a No Ryan in small Yankee Stadium and a lineup that’s doing okay hitting wise right now. So, who is my #1 SP tonight?  Nobody.  I am fine with any of these 3 on FD and expect them all to be in the same range on both sites. Chris Bassitt DK: $8200, FD: $7300 Our guy a season ago when he was in Citi Field for lots of home games, but now in Toronto this could be an up and down campaign.  Detroit’s not good though, so their .213 avg over the last 10 days and 26% strikeout rate are enough to have me comfortable with the Hound dog today — plus Kevin Kiermaier can hopefully climb the wall and rob any homers he allows. Nick Martinez DK: $7400, FD: $8000 I know Martinez is not great, but anytime he is at home and in the mid 7k range on DraftKings he should be alright for you.  The added bonus that Milwaukee is a big strikeout boost for him and cooler temps in San Diego makes me on Nicky Mart for a 5+ IP, 6 K game — but a no decision is a strong possibility here. Jhony Brito DK: $7700, FD: $7100 The Twins almost never beat the Yankees, right?  Doesn’t matter who it is they just seem to have a mental block in that stadium.  Warm weather in New York and a young SP here is a ton of risk, but for now Brito is getting a ton of whiffs and the Twins are still using Miranda, Solano and Gordon as key hitters in their lineup.  Not great Bob…   This is a short slate, so we apply the short slate theory in regards to hitting around a single game-stack, of which there are two really good ones today. Pirates vs Cardinals KeBryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen, Willson Contreras, Tyler O’Neill We welcome Vinnie Velasquez and Jordan Montgomery to the tradition where the Pirates and Cardinals games go over their total well over 60% of the time each season.  Pittsburgh should roll out 8 righties tonight, […]

This slate is proof that DraftKings and FanDuel can include the 6pm window games and not lose money.  I don’t think they will do this going forward, but it’s nice to see. WEATHER OAK at BAL:  16 mph wind out to RF   Some great arms on this night slate, very different than the day slate. Spencer Strider DK:  $9300, FD:  $10900 This is very simple.  You take Strider at home against the Reds or you fade and leverage stack with Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley.  But why in the f’n world would you do that.  Please, do not do that.  Lock in Strider, take him at high ownership and move on. Chris Sale DK:  $7400, FD: $7800 The Rays lose their first game today and they do it at the hands of Chris Sale.  He gets the comforting environment of Tropicana Field and gets to avoid Brandon Lowe who likely sits tonight.  Throwback Sale game tonight friends. Hunter Greene DK:  $6900, FD: $8000 There’s another throw back veteran in Clayton Kershaw who will pitch well, but you have a massive salary savings on both sites with Hunter Greene and I see no reason he doesn’t match Strider in strikeouts tonight.     Blue Jays Vlad Jr, Varsho, Chapman Bichette, check.  Kiermeier, check.  Tonight the Varsho homer comes off the bullpen and Vladdy might hit 3 out. Orioles Mountcastle, Santander, Hays     CATCHER Alejandro Kirk Adley Rutschman   FIRST BASE Vlad Guerrero Jr Ryan Mountcastle Nathaniel Lowe   SECOND BASE Marcus Semien Miguel Vargas Whit Merrifield   THIRD BASE Matt Chapman Hunter Dozier Rafael Devers   SHORTSTOP Bo Bichette Bobby Witt Jr   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Anthony Santander Adolis Garcia George Springer Riley Greene   OUTFIELD – Value Marcell Ozuna Austin Hays   Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club Vlad Guerrero JR – 1B – Blue Jays Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves   FAVORITE BET(s) Boston ML +108   TOP PROP(s) OF THE DAY Nate Eovaldi over 5.5 strikeouts

No site synchronicity today.  FanDuel has two early slates in typical FanDuel fashion and they included the Astros/Pirates game on their ‘Very Early’ slate but do not have the Marlins/Phillies and Nationals/Angels games on that slate, while DraftKings does. All in all there are a lot  of mid week afternoon games for early in April.  Eight of the 15 series in fact are playing on the afternoon slate today, which kinda makes it the ‘Main’ slate if you consider the biggest slate Main. WEATHER Very similar to last night, in which we saw good offense continue and there’s some additional good spots today as well. SD at NYM – Windy out to RF, and remember they did bring in the fences in RF this year slightly. NYY at CLE – 16 mph wind out to RF CHW at MIN – 14 mph out to left SEA at CHC – 21 mph out to CF … Day game.  73 degrees.  Fun. STL at COL – 79 degrees, 11 mph out to center. MIA at PHI – 80 degrees, 16 mph out to right. ROOF CLOSED in ARIZONA That’s a ton of positive impact for hitting, and I didn’t need to go get a Meteorology degree and you didn’t need to pay $15.99 for that extra advice.   Normally I would say lets take the roof closed game in Arizona and game stack those arms.  But unfortunately we have Dr(e)y Jameson making his debut for the Diamondbacks, which really is just a bad name.  Who wants to be known as Dry Jameson?  Does that mean he is a recovering alcoholic or he is just some Gen Z version of getting drunk?  And on the other side in that same game is Janson Junk.  So a Junk pitcher vs a Dry Drunk?  What an absolute mess…  In short, we want no part of young pitchers there, lets take our chances with someone in a good hitting weather game. Zack Wheeler DK: $9,700 (Game not on FD) When first examining the list of pitchers Wheeler was the one I had the first gut instinct on.  Obviously the weather is not ideal for mid April pitching options but then again on the entire slate it’s bad no matter where you go. So why Wheeler?  I think we gotta value anyone who can get 8+ strikeouts on this slate and Wheeler can do that.  Soler, COoper, […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

The Toronto Blue Jays open their home season today against the Tigers and it will mark the first time that a game is being played post renovations to Right Field.  The renovations essentially should make it easier for hitters as the park gets smaller and while people see Right-CF and think that helps lefties I also caution that most lefties when they pull the ball well usually hit it out of medium sized stadiums anyways.  So the real boost here, is for RHH who love to spray oppo-field, you know, like Bo Bichette. WEATHER It’s warmer today almost everywhere. 15+ mph wind out to CF in Citi Field 15+ mph wind out to CF in Wrigleyville, with 70+ degree temps and Chris Flexen Deez Nutz on the mound 13+ mph wind out to LF in Target.  Good weather here for … *checks notes* Minnesota in April???? Chase Field Roof is Open   This is an A-list pitcher day, we have proven Cy Young caliber guys like Ohtani, Burnes, deGrom and then we have rising stars like Manoah & May, solid trust worthy options like Pablo Lopez and Merrill Kelly and then there’s Chris Flexen and Matt Manning, who, just aren’t good. SHOHEI OHTANI Shotime should arguably be 10.5k on DK and 12k on FanDuel since he is at home and facing the Nationals, but often times I and many MLB DFS players get caught up in pricing and it really doesn’t matter.  We’re expecting 8-10 strikeouts from Ohtani, very limited power from the Nationals and this is one stadium it’s kinda cooler in tonight so look for a lower scoring game dominated by Ohtani. ALEK MANOAH Even though the stadium could help hitting I am not opposed to using quality arms like Manoah, especially when he is in a spot that favors him like this.  Manoah struggles with good lefties, the Tigers do not really have much in that department and outside of Riley Greene poking one right down the line, I can’t see the Tigers getting to him. Manoah’s coming off a 7 inning performance vs KC where he did walk 4 guys, so I look for better command today as he settles into his third start after a bad first, decent second and now … a slate winning performance.  He’s only #2 here because Ohtani is at home vs Washington. CORBIN BURNES There are two theories right now […]

We only have 8 games on the MAIN slate tonight because the MLB continues to schedule a ton of 6pm window games and they’re not included on the MAIN DFS slate, which is a big bummer because we miss out on Marlins vs Phillies and … Astros vs Pirates! WEATHER Wind out to RF (13 mph) in Atlanta Wind out to CF (10 mph) in Wrigleyville Mid 70’s with a 58% dewpoint in Coors Roof should be open in Chase Field   So there’s two ways to approach this slate overall and it all centers around the pitching you are comfortable with.  I don’t think you’ll wind up witih a comfortable build where you have a balanced lineup tonight, meaning that you either should have two mid/cheaper pitchers and higher $ bats or the flip side.  So I present two options today. THE CHEAPER ‘Underpriced’ ARMS LOGAN WEBB This is a criminal price, I don’t care if it’s the Dodgers.  Did you see how the mighty Giants offense went from hot in warm windy Chicago to ass in San Francisco?  Same thing should happen with the hot Dodgers bats going from Chase Field to San Francisco.  A game stack with Urias is just fine as well, but I like the leverage side of having Webb on DraftKings at $7400 BRYCE EDLER Edler got up to 79 pitches in his debut and went 6 innings as he allowed just 2 hits with 3 walks vs a good St. Louis Lineup.  The Reds aren’t one to miss many bats and given that they have never seen Edler before the advantage is on his side here too.  A season ago his Slider generated a 36% whiff rate & five of the top 6 for Cincinnati had 27%+ K rate in that same split.  I see another 6 innings with 6+ strikeouts from Edler. Just missed the cut:  Zac Gallen.  He’ll put it together soon, but I am not tempting the heater that is on in Arizona right now   THE BETTER ‘Pay Up’ ARMS MAX SCHERZER  I believe that when you are a hall of fame pitcher you can figure things out and that’s what is on the plate now for Scherzer as he and other veteran pitchers continue to adapt to the pitch clock.  Max was always a guy who worked fast, but clearly last start things were too fast for him […]

WEATHER All clear with chilly but not miserable temps and a little wind blowing out to LF in Wrigley and Target. DREW RASMUSSEN In case you didn’t hear yesterday, the Rays are now undefeated at 8-0 and have won each game by 4+ runs.  Well, when you get to start the season against the Tigers, Nationals and Athletics, that doesn’t hurt either. Rasmussen is a good pitcher who rarely puts himself into trouble on his own.  He might not have elite stuff that other guys have but knowing how to pitch is the more important trait and Raz doesn’t give up 3ER at home to good teams, so why would he vs a bad Oakland team? … Even if they do have Jesus on Easter Sunday. NESTOR CORTES Nasty Nestor made 2 starts at the newly configured Camden Yards in 2022 and he racked up 19 strikeouts over 11 innings allowing 0 ER.  I mention this as a slight extra comfort level for using him against a good Orioles lineup, but really we would have to trust Cortes vs the Orioles in almost any stadium.  The only two threats in the lineup are Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle — who gets hurt by chilly temps IMO. TAIJUAN WALKER If Walker’s splitter is working early he can smash his strikeout prop (6.5) which is probably higher than it will be most games for him this year.  The projected lineup for Cincinnati is full of guys who carry very high whiff rates on splitters vs RHP and I wouldn’t imagine the ball carries very well in Philly today if one does make contact.  Granted, they’re lacking power here too. Sunday Sleeper Matthew Boyd … Everyone above Boyd looks pretty strong in their match-ups, so using him vs the Red Sox might feel uncomfortable, however back starting in Detroit I bet we see a little vintage Boyd with a good game.  The PC is probably limited, so reserve him for second lineup(s) on DraftKings as an SP2.   ASTROS Chas McCormick, Yordan Alvarez, David Hensley Go figure, of all the games today here early in April the one in Minnesota is one of the warmer ones which carries favorable hitting conditions. Tyler Mahle’s transformation from shitty vs LHB to shitty vs RHB is almost complete as he really gets his damage done attacking lefties, but has to face two of the best in the […]

WEATHER Chance of a delay between Padres & Braves, but they should be able to play unless the field is totally drenched. COLE IRVIN This Yankee lineup should be overrated most of the season and will be hot and cold not as Judge goes but more Rizzo, Stanton and the young kids — who likely only hit at home.  I’ve seen enough of the park to trust it for LHP with the wall change a season ago and Irvin is the latest to benefit. JOSE BERRIOS Yes, Berrios was absolutely horrible in his season debut vs the Royals but we have seen this from Berrios before and he has gotten right before as well.  He did get 11 SwStr in that game and the Angels are a high volume swinging team as well, so drop the ER down to 3 and get 7+ strikeouts again and we’ll take it. JORDAN MONTGOMERY After their run demolishing the Mets pitching the Brewers appear back to bad offensive ways.  He has to avoid a Yelich 2-4 game but otherwise I trust Monty vs spot starting RHH in the Brewers lineup.   ROCKIES Profar, Bryant, Blackmon, Cron I expect Coors to do Coors type things today and a good reason is Trevor Williams and not being good, which is a fairly simple formula in DFS.  Do not.  I repeat, do not just blindly assume only lefties can touch up Williams.  Coors is about missing bats and Williams won’t miss many CARDINALS Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras It’s Eric Lauer, of course I am going back to the well here. DODGERS Betts, Martinez, Vargas, Thompson, Outman Another game between these two with repeating SP on the mound.  Davies went 5 IP and managed to just walk 2 and only give up 4 hits / 1 ER in LA.  He should not have as much luck at home with the roof open again.  Love Mookie and the cheap bats here like Vargas, Thompson and Outman   CATCHER Willson Contreras Sean Murphy   FIRST BASE CJ Cron Paul Goldschmidt   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Brandon Drury   THIRD BASE Nolan Arenado Manny Machado   SHORTSTOP Xander Bogaerts Gunnar Henderson Bo Bichette   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore George Springer Jurickson Profar JD Martinez Mike Trout … Yes, it’s Ohtani bobble head night.  But, last I checked, it’s Saturday too.   Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals – Chairman of The […]