WEATHER Clear   RYAN WEATHERS (DK: $7700, FD: $9000) Weathers should be returning tonight (if they change it after I wrote this, then I apologize and just move on).  He’s back from encouraging his wife to welcome their child into the world — I mean, it’s not really that hard now is it?  You just lay there, get some drugs in you, scream, then welcome the child.  Women, I tell ya.  They complain about it like it’s some big accomplishment, but I never saw any of them breaking down Jose Altuve’s splits vs tall pitchers or short pitchers, now did they?  No.  Oh, for the record, Weathers isn’t small, but he’s on the smaller side.  He’s my wild card guy tonight and I think he shines with a little dad narrative. MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8600, FD: $10.1k) We have two other guys that are on my short list.  Both are my guys.  One way higher than the other and that is Gore ahead of … Brady Singer.  You thought I was gonna say Ragans – I know.  But the Angels walk way too much this season to trust a lefty vs them.  Gore though is the one with the clean environment and should be able to get 6-7 strikeouts here.  Overall, he’s #1 among these three — but I think you win tonight with ok pitching and a game stack.  So we move on. BRADY SINGER (DK: $6300) This is a 3-1 game.  He shines.   DONT MIND / 4TH OPTION MITCH KELLER (DK: $7500, FD: $8200) Keller vs Misiorowski should remain a low scoring game.  There’s no doubt Miz will have a ton of early strikeouts but I need to see him throw back to back 100 pitch outings with confidence before going there and sadly we have to lock in expensive hitters tonight.  Kellers discount is necessary for that and his risk is not too significant.  Just avoid Brice Turang getting on base and this is a clean first five innings.   CUBS vs DODGERS The only man who can prevent this game from going over is Enrico Palazzo behind the plate. Poor Colin “Im about to have some massive Dia” Rea, he’s definitely going to be feeling his last name tonight because a 4PM local game in Dodger Stadium in what surely has to be a premier regional Fox game, right?  Why else would this be a 7:15 […]

Two slates today with two Island games and thankfully one of them is the Padres/Diamondbacks game down in Mexico which should be a high scoring affair just because of the park conditions. Late slate article will post later.   WEATHER Rockies at Mets:  Yucky conditions which could push this to be a double header on Sunday.   This is how I’ll rank the arms today Eury Perez (DK: $7500) Shane McClanahan (DK: $7700) Robbie Ray   MARINERS Right back to the well here. Randy Arozarena Julio Rodriguez   NATIONALS vs WHITE SOX Exactly 82 pitches in each of Noah Schultz’s first two starts isn’t the main reason I am fading him, but it’s more my theory that young hits young.  Does that imply Jacob Young per chance — no, he is old, but more so the Nationals don’t strikeout that much vs LHP.  They’ll be pesky today. Daylen Lile, Jorbit Vivas Colson Montgomery, Sam Antonacci     CATCHER Agustin Ramirez Cal Raleigh Bo Naylor   FIRST BASE The battle between Vladdy and whoever the Guardians roll at 1B (Like both Rhys and Manzardo) today should be fun north of the border.  I think Vladdy is the no brainer play though. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Babetaka Ruthakami – When does he hit 8k on DraftKings????   SECOND BASE JJ Wetherholt Jorbit Vivas Xavier Edwards   THIRD BASE Junior Caminero Miguel Vargas Nasim Nunez   SHORTSTOP Colson Montgomery JP Crawford   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Randy Arozarena Jordan Walker:  Straight ball I like.  Curve, give problems.  No need to give Jobu Rum to hit Bryan Woo fastball after fastball. Julio Rodriguez Daylen Lile     Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Afternoon Dongers Club Jordan Walker – OF – Cardinals Randy Arozarena – OF – Mariners Agustin Ramirez – C – Marlins   BETS TOTALS: Nationals/White Sox OVER 8.5 SIDES: Nationals ML Mariners + Jays ML Parlay

Programming note – The Sunday article this weekend will either be very light or none at all.  I think I will get one out ahead of time, but Sunday is likely a day off for me. Earlier this week we saw a night or two when it felt like every ‘obvious’ pick across data models was homering.  It wasn’t teams going off as much as it was individual players doing well.  There’s also been some secondary players who have been hot (oddly enough, most of them are Asians, but I have no real theory or analysis behind that).  Soon we’re gonna see that star hitter go absolutely nuclear as well, but not until May. Is this a high scoring weekend?  Probably not.  But every series tonight is a new one and some random ones as well.  I expect we see a random type setup tonight where you’re building around one team and then a bunch of one offs outside of that.   WEATHER All clear, nothing note worthy.   PAUL SKENES (DK: $10,000, FD: $10,600) Overall in his short career Skenes has had a few more hiccups against the Brewers than he has the other NL Central teams, but many guys who have hit him are gone & he got his hiccup game out of the way on Opening Day.  To expect less than 6 innings and 8 strikeouts is foolish IMO FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $8800, FD: $8600) The Rockies are good, respectable, but it’s mostly still their pitching which is carrying them back to being a normal franchise.  The lineup still lacks that one key threat in the order & if the pitcher is on, they won’t score much.  We’re getting Peralta at a little bit of a discount from where his ceiling is.  So we’ll take it. BRAYAN BELLO (DK: $6600) Really didn’t want to go here, but also felt I should make one pick for a cheap arm since there are 14 games tonight. … … Oh, you wanted some analysis as to why?  Look, he’s not a good pitcher, so there’s no smoke being blown here that he has suddenly figured it out, but the concern has always been walks.  Almost 12% to LHB, which Baltimore is light on right now and Gunnar being the main lefty is a breaking pitch banger — not Bello’s game.  I’d expect Bello to get through the first time on […]

WEATHER All clear   TARIK SKUBAL (DK: $10,200) Yeah.  Uh.  Lets move on. MICHAEL SOROKA (DK: $7700) We’ll finally get an under game in Chase Field.  Both bullpens kinda blow, so the only way that happens is with quality starting pitching.  Soroka’s crafty and I think crafty does well vs the White Sox hot lineup. OTHER PITCHING NOTES Atlanta is starting rookie JR Ritchie.  He has quickly ascended up and a player I’ve tracked for a few years now back to high school.  He is the son of one of the former founders of Scout Fantasy Sports (now Full Time Fantasy), and for some odd reason he is not in the DK player pool.  It’s a tough draw for him though vs the Nats.   TIGERS It’s Riley Greene who is going to be walking up to the plate saying ‘Excuse me it looks like you love me’ today as he should absolutely destroy Brandon Sproat & the Tigers entire lineup gets hot taking the final game of this series after a solid outing on Wednesday as well. Riley Greene Kevin McGonigle Gleyber Torress Spencer Torkelson   PHILLIES vs CUBS Live look at the Phils lineup as they get some nice weather and their chance to steal one in this series.  It starts, it ends, with Schwarber. Kyle Schwarber Alec Bohm Seiya Suzuki Nico Hoerner   CATCHER Dillon Dingler Find the cheapest guy available   FIRST BASE Spencer Torkelson Harper, Bryce Freddie Freeman   SECOND BASE Mucho Gusto, me llamo Nico, Im Hoerner than Boog Sciambi Gleyber Torres   THIRD BASE How I’m looking at this position today … Max Muncy Alec Bohm Colt Keith Austin Riley Brady House   SHORTSTOP CJ Abrams Kevin McGonigle Geraldo Perdomo   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Riley Greene Kyle Schwarber Ronald Acuna Jr. Seiya Suzuki   Riley Greene – OF – Detroit Tigers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies Max Muncy – 3B – Dodgers Ronald Acuna Jr – OF – Braves Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers Nico Hoerner – 2B – Cubs BONUS …………. Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs   BETS Phillies ML

WEATHER Roof Closed in Texas Roof Open in Arizona   Lets start off with some pitching notes to educate you on today The Phillies have decided to go with an opener ahead of Taijuan Walker.  This means you might get the 1st 5 innings over at a discount after the first inning In the same game, the Cubs will bring back Matthew Boyd from the IL The Twins are calling up prospect Connor “I aint sayin she’s a Gold Digger, but you might wanna get a … ” Prielipp (aka the Pre-nup)….  No?  Not landing?  eh, well, whatever.  He’s the next guy to beat the Mets. The offspring of Tanner Roark and Yusei Kikuchi “Anthony Kay” is pitching in Chase Field in the reverse blowout theory scenario …. Giddy up! Didier Fuentes is back with the Braves & he is starting. There, now you are caught up on useless information for tonight. SHOHEI OHTANI (DK: $10,100, FD: $10,300) Collectively the Giants are not a high strikeout team, but they each should strikeout once today.  So, that kinda makes them a high strikeout team, no?  Eh, either way, this is something I just dont see failing today.  I love the other two options here, so we can pivot down if we want. BRAXTON ASHCRAFT (DK: $8200, FD: $9800) This is the good Ashcraft and I am becoming a huge fan of his.  Unlike the un-related Graham, Braxton brings an elite secondary pitch.  It’s got a sub .075 xBA against and has all the favorable metrics to make it appear as a long term elite secondary pitch.  The other strong signal is that he throws over 4 diff pitches 15%+ of the time, meaning he isn’t a one or two pitch horse.  He’s big, throws with excellent command and has good spin & velocity.  Ladies and gentlemen, he’s Logan Gilbert 2.0. MAX FRIED (DK: $9700, FD: $10.5k) It’s really cold in Fenway and yes that should help Suarez too but what crack are you smoking to want to use Suarez for 8k?  Fried with Ohtani is tricky today, but if you can pull it off I think you can go sleep well after lock knowing you’re gonna avoid negative pitchers.  Fried had his blow-up April start vs the Angels at home last week.  He returns to form today with May coming soon.   OTHER PITCHERS TO CONSIDER I would rather do a […]

Two slates today and just enough juice in the early one to try and squeeze something out of it.   WEATHER All clear   This is where the slate is a little uneasy.  Just five spots and it’s hard to get past Logan Gilbert and Jose Soriano — even though I think both have HR risk in their games they should offset that with enough strikeouts and length.  If Soriano goes south, its because of walks. Logan Gilbert (DK: $9400) 7 innings easy with 0 HR and 10 strikeouts.  Lock in the Gilbert “Hey 2026, I’m here” start today. Michael Wacha (DK: $7800) Will the Orioles and Royals produce a 3rd straight OVER?  You might wanna say no, but keep in mind that first game was a dead under game until late extra innings, so this truly is the rubber match.  The Royals will hit Bassitt & the ball is definitely going out a little more with the fences moved in now that it’s warming up in KC.  Wacha’s got some risk here too but he’s the best third option — and I always like him in day games. Jose Soriano (DK: 8400) As mentioned above, keep the walks clean and this is a chance for him to finish SP2.   ROYALS The wind is blowing out to Left Center — not good for Vinnie Pasquantino who is a dead pull guy when he homers, but he should be able to rope an oppo-field double.  Jac remains too damn cheap.  He’s whiffing still, but seems to be turning the corner when he does make contact. Carter Jensen Vinnie Pasquantino Jac Caglianone   REDS vs RAYS Reverse blowout theory says it’s the Rays, but Nick Martinez is facing his old club here and they’re on fire.  But the way you can see the ball so damn well in this stadium now is not being talked about enough.  The Rays have a gap in their lineup with Jonny DeLuca & Ben Williamson — however DeLuca is a good cutter hitter, which Williamson will throw 25% of the time.  I think he makes a mistake here and the Rays value pays off. Will Benson Sal Stewart Junior Caminero Jonny DeLuca Ben Williamson (2B)   ANGELS Eric Lauer back to being horrible Eric Lauer is music to my ears.  The Angels have hit a cold patch & I hope he is the remedy for […]

TUESDAY SLATES There are SIX, count em, SIX games on the Turbo slate tonight, which really dampens the MAIN slate possibilities.  One of the things I love about MLB is the series configurations that you have each week and if you do the math there are technically 6,190,283,353,629,375 different ways we could have MLB series combinations at any given time.  I firmly believe the 15 we have going right now might be among the worst.  MLB getting the boring series out of the way. Your new series firing up on Turbo tonight that we’ll never really get to see Brewers at Tigers:  Sneaky high scoring game here.  I really think the Tigers (Despite being LH heavy) will hit Kyle Harrison & Keider Montero should struggle vs the Brewers top of the lineup.  Good YRFI spot Yankees at Red Sox:  Boston can steal this one, but the Red Sox at even or -108 is just horrific odds.  Pass Overall for those building lineups on the Turbo slate do not be shocked if Chris Paddack has a good outing for the Marlins.   MAIN SLATE WEATHER All games play without issue White Sox at Diamondbacks:  Chase Field Roof Open Padres at Rockies:  Nice temps in Coors again.     DFS Strategy 101:  There are two guys tonight that you can play together and build easily around.  They are the best two options.  They are chalk.  You’re either locking these two in, or you are doing a leverage stack against them.  It’s your choice weiner…  I recommend just playing them. NOLAN MCLEAN (DK: $8500, FD: $10,200) If the Mets lose tonight I don’t think it will be due to the Twins offense beating up Mclean.  Even with the winds blowing out, he should be able to just spin his way past the Twins.  His sinker is extremely good so far & they’re terrible against it. YOSHI YAMAMOTO (DK: $9500, FD: $10,900) The hitting tonight really leaves alot to be desired and not paying up for both pitchers is silly.  With the park benefit, the Giants mess of an offense & Yamamoto’s consistency I don’t see why you’d consider not playing this chalk 18-30 FPT game.     WHITE SOX Ever seen a grown Japanese man naked in a pool?  Yes, you are reading the Dongers Club article … Wait, I should probably be more specific, you are reading a Baseball article on tonights […]

TONIGHTS SLATE Before you go any further in this article today, please be aware that I think I am going to wind up sounding completely contrarian to the natural instinct on tonight’s slate and I have a few things that I just cannot get past my gut feeling on.  So let’s go ahead and summarize it for you… Monday begins with an 8 game slate that locks at 6:40 PM and has three games in that early 6pm/Turbo window.  Of the eight games going tonight it includes a wrap-around Monday night game between the Dodgers & Rockies (absolutely retarded scheduling IMO) and then 7 new series — including BOTH Sunday Night Baseball teams playing on the road today. Weather is not much of a factor anywhere.  It’s cool, comfortable and all games will play. The best pitchers though are in spots where I think there’s going to be offense tonight.  The worst pitchers are going to be okay but have one or two spots they cannot get around. It’s a weird Monday. Last Monday was weird with all the guys hitting 2 homers. So, you know what, I think tonight is your contrarian night where the chalk flops massively. Enjoy.   While I like contrarian tonight, I do want to point out that Cease, Detmers, Lugo or even Bradish can all go for 20 FPTS on any given day.  But I only expect one of them at best to do that today — so choose wisely. JAKE IRVIN (DK: $6100, FD: $7100) Right now Matt Olson cannot hit a beach ball to save his life.  So much for crowning him the new Mr. Philadelphia after that horrific weekend he just displayed.  For all the ‘weather’ folks hyping up the warm weather lets talk about how its now chilly in DC here too and Jake Irvin is doing a good job limiting HR this year as well.  Do not expect one of those 7 homer Atlanta Brave games, in fact, expect 7 strikeouts for Irvin tonight. I also think Bryce Elder has an okay start — but I prefer Irvin by a wide margin. DYLAN CEASE (DK: $9800, FD: $10,400) Alright, I guess I will go with one chalky pitcher tonight.  I want him to get beat up, but the Angels are terrible against sliders and swing too much for him not to get a bunch of whiffs and reach 7 […]

State of every MLB bullpen heading into the next four weeks — with velocity, trend, and handedness data.

WEATHER Ugly but I think they get every game in today.   Jacob Misiorowski (DK: $9200, FD: $10,200) We will put Misorowski up top for another chance here.  He had a drop off running into some stress innings vs Toronto last start and that’s alright for him to go through that growing pain spot.  The Marlins are likely activating Kyle Stowers for today which gives them another good bat, but coming out against Miz to start is not where you wanna be off the IL. Shane McClanahan (DK: $7900, FD: $8600) Yes, there is a ceiling limit here, but like most spots the weather is dropping down significantly and the ball is gonna feel great for Shane today.  You’re also flipping off Cruz/Lowe/O’Hearn from a power perspective, so he should give up 0 HR and probably gives up 0 ER. Bailey Ober (DK: $6700, FD: $7200) Best of the cheap plays outside of the south beach option.  Another cold day up in Minnesota.  His heavy Change-Up/Slider usage should be able to get whiffs here that he normally wouldnt get.   HAPPY SOUTH BEACH THEORY SUNDAY To those who celebrate of course … Eury Perez (DK: $8100, FD: $7900) Woo Hoo!  We return back the South Beach theory.  The theory when a visiting team in Miami on a weekend with an early Saturday game is then OUT late on Saturday night and thus plays worse/hungover the next day.  If you don’t think players drink/go out on the road just listen to any former (even recent former) player on a podcast.  They do.   FADE Garrett Crochet, Cole Ragans, Framber Valdez   We are going to finish the weekend with what I said the trend/theme would be all weekend.  You’re better off spreading out 2 man exposures from various teams rather than locking in on a full team stack.  That remains the case heavily today — especially with the weather turning ugly once more. ST LOUIS CARDINALS One of the games in a dome and a game with bad bullpens here as well for long game upside.  Mike Burrows had a ton of hype pre-season as he came over with the possibility of being the next Houston resurrect project at pitcher — but right now he and the catcher(s) have no chemistry with what pitch to throw and when & he is almost certainly tipping his pitches as well. HOUSTON ASTROS Ditto […]