It’s an eight game Monday night main slate, with a few of the 6:40 PM EST games included in the MAIN slate tonight.   WEATHER Tigers @ Royals – Chance of a lingering shower delaying start, but game should play just fine.   PABLO LOPEZ (DK: $9500, FD: 10.6k) Lopez will check in as my #1 tonight with plenty of buffer between him and the rest of the crowd.  Washington’s numbers of late have taken a big hit due to facing the Phillies pitching over the weekend, but let’s not void them starting guys like Winker/Gallo/Rosario as part of the problem and two of those guys just homered, so I think we’re kinda safe here with Lopez — an Ace pitcher — in a spot where you have a hard time convincing me he won’t go 7 innings in a quality start. TANNER HOUCK (DK: $9100, FD: $10,800) I kinda keep waiting for the Rays to stop being a free swinging, undisciplined team and it’s just not gonna happen.  26%+ strikeout rate over the last 10 days and they should have 4+ RHH tonight which favors Houck a good amount.  6 IP and 6 K should be a safe bet here for Tanner. MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $6600, FD: $7600) There is another cheap arm (Joe Ross) who is likely a popular choice, but between the two Ross’ blow up potential is much greater than Wacha pitching in Kauffman vs the Tigers.  Not a ton of upside here, what you saw his last two starts is the ceiling on Wacha, but 2/3 of that production is good and Detroit’s a similar if not worse lineup than the last two he has faced.  Plus, their best bat right now is Riley Greene, a lefty, which favors Wacha and his historically reverse splits. Pitchers I expect to do well, but won’t use: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, Dean Kremer Risky Pitchers I want to use, but won’t: Taj Bradley   Brewers vs Marlins Congrats, we start the Monday off with Milwaukee and Miami scoring 13+ runs. Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Jackson Choriou Bryan De La Cruz, Jake Burger ANGELS Taylor Ward Jo Adell Dodgers, Yankees, Astros Mookie Betts Anthony Rizzo Yordan Alvarez This won’t sound very fun, but yes, these three big name lineups — each of which are at home — are all facing favorable spots tonight. The one team who you might be […]

Eleven (11) game slate with one notable game time as the Red Sox/Cardinals are playing at 1:05 EST, but a local Noon start time there in St. Louis.   WEATHER Good weather overall Roof should be closed in Miami. Assume roof will be closed in Arlington & Houston.   CORBIN BURNES (DK: $9600 / FD: $9700) The Orioles certainly are pleased with what they have gotten out of Burnes thus far.  You cannot underestimate how valuable taking the mound every 5 days, giving 6 innings, allowing under 3 ER and staying under 100 pitches is.  I mean, just ask the Royals, they’ve gotten that exact performance out of Seth Lugo!!!  Alright, so there was a slight jab in there at Burnes, but he was the first guy I thought of today in terms of having a bust out “ah shit, why did I fade him” performance.  The Mariners on the season rank among the highest in K%, but of late they’ve done better against RHP, which hopefully is the one way his ownership stays down.  Because, I don’t see them continuing that today and Burnes should hav ean 8K performance, with potential for 12 if the Orioles do let him go into the 100’s on the PC.   Burnes > Nola… NICK PIVETTA (DK: $8000 / FD: $9200) I really like Pivetta today, almost enough to really rank him #1 overall beacuse it feels a little uncomfortable.  The kind of uncomfortable that makes it even that much better.  The guy below him here is the chalky option in the same price range, but when we plug in the data elements around pitch mix and splits, Pivetta actually has an equal opponent ranking. His recent form is good, the start time is early here, and I trust we’ll see a quick, clean game from the tall righty.   St. Louis is hitting better of late, but still the Cardinals. CARLOS RODON (DK: $8400 / FD: $9800) Carlos Rodon is the guy who stands out as a likely favorite pick today and I don’t have much bad to say about him other than he’s gotta face his former team — which given the team, could turn out to be a big fuck you spot.  Obviously the White Sox are as bad as they come, and aren’t showing much of any life at turning things around. THE SUNDAY SLEEPER SIXTO SANCHEZ (DK: $6000 / FD: […]

WEATHER All games play, with delay possible in Atlanta.   Vast difference from what I saw on the early slate today in terms of confidence and ‘safe’ picks out there tonight, but it’s a good pitching slate. ZAC GALLEN – DK: $9400; FD: $9900 — There isn’t much reason for Gallen to not come in as the highest owned and close to the highest performing starter tonight.  The guy gets to face Javier Baez for crying out loud, it should be fine for him. JUSTIN VERLANDER – DK: $8400; FD: $9500 — I do not get the pricing continuing to ignore Verlander’s potential and Milwaukee lefties do not look that dominant tonight against Verlander. PATRICK SANDOVAL – DK: $7700 — Texas cannot hit LHP right now and I am finally going to jump on board of this train with one foot in and one foot ready to jump off.  But right now, we’re silly if we ignore this.   BOSTON RED SOX Duran and Devers are both white hot, in a great split scenario and sub 5k on DraftKings.  Those two getting on opens it up for us to go for a 4-man Red Sox build. Jarren Duran Wilyer Abreau Rafael Devers Tyler O’Neill or Dominic Smith   SAN DIEGO Game should play despite weather concerns, and too many of these guys are popping off on the model tonight to ignore them. Xander Bogaerts Jake Cronenworth Jackson Merrill Fernando Tatis Jr.   HOUSTON ASTROS An easy team to stars and scrubs build a stack around today. Yordan Alvarez Jose Altuve Jon Singleton Yainer Diaz   LA ANGELS Some cheap power should come from Nolan/Mickey. Nolan Schanuel Mickey Moniak Jo Adell   CATCHER Yainer Diaz Tyler Stephenson Connor Wong   FIRST BASE Good position today. Nolan Schanuel Jon Singleton Vinnie Pasquantino Dominic Smith   SECOND BASE Xander Bogaerts Jose Altuve Michael Massey   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Austin Riley Alex Bregman   SHORTSTOP Bad position tonight.  Worth paying down at. Zach Neto Willy Adames Jeremy Pena   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Yordan Alvarez Jarren Duran Wilyer Abreu Corbin Carroll   OUTFIELD – Value Mickey Moniak Jackson Merrill Lars Nootbar   Nolan Schaunel – 1B – Anaheim Angels – Chairman of The Dongers Club Xander Bogaerts – 2B – Padres Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros Corbin Carroll – OF – Diamondbacks Austin Riley – 3B – Braves Willy Adames – SS […]

WEATHER Good chance they find a way to get all six games in today and without any delays. SHOTA IMANAGA – DK: $10,100; FD: $10,500 It’s finally starting to warm up and that includes Wrigley Field where temps will be in the upper 70’s today, but without any real wind impact.  Imanaga, being in the elite tier this year certainly voids him of any major concerns as well.  Plus Pittsburgh is very mediocre offensively most days.  This is a Cubs blowout. KEVIN GAUSMAN – DK: $8,300; FD: $9,000 I think this is the first time all season that I have really liked Gausman who had strung together a few good starts before lasting only 3 IP exactly one week ago vs the Twins.  The extra rest is of note here and it’s the same thing he has had in his last two starts.  This, historically, has been a good thing for Gausman. Grayson Rodriguez has been activiated from the IL by Baltimore to start today.  He’s $8000 on DraftKings and would be an okay pivot off either guy above there. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Cheap option Braxton Garrett (5900) should get rocked by the Mets and also should not throw more than 85 pitches. So.  Yo.  There’s a pitcher going today, whom was always someone I had this hope would become good enough to pitch a 5-8 year career.  He’s kinda stretching it out to that, but, uh, yeah, he’s not good.  But hey, he’s gonna pitch well in Yankee Stadium today.  Why the hell is Brad Keller $7100 and not $5000?   CHICAGO CUBS Seiya Suzuki Christopher Morel Patrick Wisdom   NY METS Pete Alonso JD Martinez Mark Vientos   SF GIANTS Matt Chapman Jorge Soler Marco Luciano   CATCHER There isn’t anyone here who is a good play.  Period.  I love ya Adley, but I’m not justifying $5700 today, would be smarter to just bet his HR prop.   FIRST BASE Pete Alonso Patrick Wisdom Anthony Rizzo   SECOND BASE Nico Hoerner Jorge Polanco   THIRD BASE Matt Chapman Christopher Morel Jake Burger   SHORTSTOP Marco Luciano Francisco Lindor Bo Bichette   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Jorge Soler Seiya Suzuki Jesus Sanchez JD Martinez   Matt Chapman – 3B – SF Giants – Chairman of The Dongers Club Patrick Wisdom – 1B – Cubs Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs JD Martinez – OF – Mets   TOP BETS Mets […]

It is a fantastic Friday and we’re getting very close to Memorial Day, which means that we might see the increase in scoring not just due to weather but also due to the not so far fetched conspiracy theory that Baseball rolls out non deadened balls to increase scoring during the summer.   WEATHER Padres at Braves:  There is a chance they could call this one well before it starts.  Typical Atlanta weather though, so good chance it plays without concern.   COLE RAGANS – DK: $9200, FD: $9600 One rough start last week in Anaheim when I was all over my boy is not going to deter me from using him back in the K.  While Oakland was a feel good story for a while, they’ve gone back to their bad ways with a really high 43% strikeout rate vs LHP over the last week and almost zero offensive production.  Ragans just got hit last time, that’s it, no other excuses.  He will get the whiffs back tonight.  7 innings, 7 strikeouts, 0 ER.  Oakland’s projected lineup today has the second lowest Arsenal score (meaning they don’t overall hit the mix that Ragans throws very well) as well. BRAYAN BELLO – DK: $8000, FD: $8800 On the other side of the spectrum, the Cardinals kinda woke up.  Boy, sure must be nice going to Anaheim, right?  Welcome back to hell – or St. Louis as the rest of us call it.  I do not believe the Cardinals will suddenly stay hot at home and one thing B.B. is great at is limiting damage.  Not a win the slate kinda play, but also wont lose you the slate either. CHRISTIAN SCOTT – DK: $8100, FD: $9100 I can’t believe I am doing this, but I am riding the young arm who has been great in his first two appearances for the Mets.  Command is where things could go south, but facing Miami that is a little negated since they’ll swing freely.  Scott has shown a good 3+ pitch mix with viable velocity and movement to be a sustained option.  If he avoids early walk issues, he’ll post another 6 IP, 6+ strikeout game. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS Max Fried – Storms have me sliding off Fried.  But nobody is pitching better right now. Nestor Cortes – He is generally good at home, the White Sox are bad, he is probably chalky […]

A normal quiet Thursday evening but this time we have a 5 game ‘MAIN’ slate and thus I think it’s worthy of playing tonight.  Tomorrow’s slate and this weekend in general is one of my favorite of the season thus far based on match-ups — very much looking forward to it. WEATHER Rays/Red Sox – Similar risk as last night, which is pretty low.   Since it is a very short slate, the ownership boosts even higher on these guys, which means Glasnow-Javier is easily in the category of play or fade without any regard for if they are good plays or not.  I don’t like much else, so I say play them. Tyler Glasnow (DK: $10,400, FD: $11,300) Cristian Javier (DK: $7,800, FD: $7,800)   NEW YORK METS — Cheap, contrarian and getting a favorable park shift.  Three good things to combine together on a slate where you aren’t really winning with a pitching decision. Brandon Nimmo Pete Alonso Tomas Nido   CHICAGO CUBS — They have the luxury of having seen Jones just last week & the Pittsburgh bullpen is in complete disarray right now. Seiya Suzuki Cody Bellinger Cristopher Morel Nico Hoerner   HOUSTON ASTROS — No whiff Joey Estregen is toeing the rubber, followed by a ‘pen almost as rough in the middle innings as the Pirates right now.   It’s been a while since we had that Jose Altuve lead off homer. Jose Altuve Yordan Alvarez   CATCHER Tomas Nido Yainer Diaz Joey Bart   FIRST BASE Pete Alonso Bryce Harper Freddie Freeman   SECOND BASE Jose Altuve Jeff McNeil Vaughn Grissom   THIRD BASE Rafael Devers Brett Baty Alex Bregman   SHORTSTOP Nico Hoerner Edmundo Sosa   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Yordan Alvarez Shohei Ohtani Brandon Nimmo Seiya Suzuki   OUTFIELD – Value JD Martinez Joey Loperfido Harrison Bader   Brandon Nimmo – OF – NY Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros Shohei Ohtani – DH – Dodgers   TOP BETS Mets/Phillies OVER 8 Cubs ML -130

WEATHER Rays/Red Sox – Showers moving in as the game goes on, should play. Welcome to mid-tier with upside pitching slate.  Framber Valdez & Charlie Morton stand out as veterans that we can try to trust tonight, with Valdez likely being the most popular of those two, but also carries the most risk and thus he is listed fourth. If we want a guy to give us a 10K strikeout performance, it would be Tanner Houck and if we want that chalky cheap guy, it’s gonna be Griffin Canning.  Very straight forward, and no reason to really over think this tonight in my eyes. Charlie Morton (DK: $8400, FD: $10.7k) … Logic says the Cubs do not go three games in a row in Atlanta without scoring.  But the trend this year has been you ride the hot pitching staff even though that flies in the face of what Baseball is all about in regards to SP trends.  Ride Morton for one more Brave quality start here. Tanner Houck (DK: $9100) Griffin Canning (DK: $5500)   RANGERS (Seager, Lowe) … Lowe and Seager are both cheap given recent struggles & Carrasco is a bad guy vs LHB DODGERS (Freeman, Betts) … Logan Webb and all of the Giants pitchers this year have had real problems with their bread and butter change-up’s.  I blame the new pitching coach and until we see it, we continue to capitalize on it.   CATCHER Shea Langaleirs Will Smith Jonah Heim   FIRST BASE Freddie Freeman Nate Lowe Josh Naylor   SECOND BASE Ozzie Albies Jose Altuve   THIRD BASE Matt Chapman Max Muncy   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager Casey Schmitt   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Mookie Betts Jarren Duran Brent Rooker Kyle Tucker   OUTFIELD – Value Willie Calhoun James Outman Tyler Freeman   Freddie Freeman – 1B – Dodgers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics Willie Calhoun – OF – Angels Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves   TOP BETS Dodgers/Giants over 8 Cardinals/Angels under 8.5  

Six game early slate on DraftKings, and a four game “Very” early slate on FanDuel.  FanDuel includes Toronto/Baltimore while DraftKings does not and includes the west coast get away games between the Royals/Mariners, Rockies/Padres and Reds/Diamondbacks. Both sites have Marlins/Tigers, Pirates/Brewers and Nationals/White Sox WEATHER All clear   Casey Mize (DK: $7200, FD: $7300) Alec Marsh (DK: $8000) Austin Gomber (DK: $6800) Garrett Crochet (DK: $9600, FD: $10,100)   Diamondbacks (Marte, Carroll, Walker, Grichuk) Pirates (McCutchen, Reynolds, Olivares) Royals (Witt, Pasquantino, Melendez) … After a couple quiet offensive games they’ll wake up today.  Really like the lefties – Pasquantino and Melendez specifically.   CATCHER Salvador Perez Tyler Stephenson Gabriel Moreno   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Christian Walker Andrew Vaughn   SECOND BASE Ketel Marte Andy Ibanez Adam Frazier   THIRD BASE Terrible spot Eugenio Suarez Bryan Ramos Gio Urshela   SHORTSTOP Bobby Witt Jr. Willy Adames   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Andrew McCutchen Bryan Reynolds MJ Melendez Will Benson   MJ Melendez – OF – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club   TOP BETS Royals ML Pirates ML  

Due to the rain out yesterday, the Nationals/White Sox game is no longer on the MAIN slate tonight.  Rejoice! WEATHER All main slate games should play, although we have rain showers in Atlanta which could cause delays or even a late start.   I’m setting up some thoughts on more pitchers than normal tonight and it has to do with the pairing options once you have the hitting locked in. THE STUDS LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $9200, FD: $10.2k) … One rough start against the Twins might keep everyone off the man who was really in the conversation for best AL pitcher so far.  Only twice this season has Gilbert yielded more than 1 ER prior to that last start, but sure, gimme some horse shit about Tarik Skubal.  Gilbert’s Swinging Strikes over his last three, 14, 13 and 18.  The Royals will swing and miss with the best of them when they’re off & tonight, they’re off. DYLAN CEASE (DK: $11k, FD: $11k) … This is not a must own spot, but it’s also not one to fade and gain a ton of leverage with him getting blown up.  Many will be chasing three 30+ point games in his last three, including one in Coors and with Cease there’s very little concern about him not throwing a ton and getting the strikeouts.  Evetything’s gonna say, Cease this, Cease that, blah blah blah.  Sure, he’ll get a 28-32 DK score tonight.  Why fade?  I don’t see a reason.  But he’s giving up a 2-run homer to Charlie Blackmon – remember him? MID RANGE GAVIN STONE (DK: $7900) NICK PIVETTA (DK: $8200) … I worry slightly about the home run ball knocking Pivetta out, but there’s also a lot of things here pointing to him having a nice bounce back outing. CHEAPER SP2 CHOICES MICHAEL WACHA (DK: $6800) JP SEARS (DK: $6100)   PIRATES / BREWERS Brice Turang & Christian Yelich … Andrew McCutchen & Oneil Cruz I expect another high scoring game tonight in Milwaukee.  While Milwaukee doesn’t have a ton of LH power, they do have Yelich who should square up Priester or walk a bunch.  There will be ducks on the pond every inning for the Brewers.  For Pittsburgh, ride the Cutch/Reynolds/Cruz train. REDS Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz Just saw Slade last week at home, good chance they jump him early tonight.   CATCHER Austin Wells Tyler […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings