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The Dongers Club – August 5th

August 5, 2023

Main Slate for Sat, Aug 5th.   WEATHER No concerns.   CORBIN BURNES Burnes or bust today.  Watch this be the night those fake Pirates loot our money away, but I see no reason to really fade Burnesy here. STEVEN MATZ Ugh. Vomit?  Yeah, but Matz HAS been decent with back to back games not allowing a run.  No he isn’t gonna post another 0 ER over 6 IP spot today, but as we’re seeing just dont worry about finding a 30 spot from your pitchers.   The best bats in Colorado’s lineup are lefties now that Cron and Grichuk are gone.     Below are my favorite teams to build around today, using a 3-3-2 type roster construction.  One game which is ugly on paper but viable for value is the Giants and Athletics.  I actually lean on Oakland’s side against Chastity (aka the Stripper, aka, Ross Stripling) for the Giants, so we gotta like Zack Gelof who is on a tear and playing in a cloud at the moment. BREWERS Christian Yelich William Contreras Brian Anderson Willy Adames   ORIOLES Being at home I wouldn’t be rolling 5 Orioles out tonight.  But Tylor Megil should have a rough 1st inning. Gunnar Henderson Ryan Mountcastle   METS Brandon Nimmo Francisco Lindor Jeff McNeil   OTHER NOTES: Michael Grove is listed as opener for the Dodgers with Ryan Yarbrough coming in after that tonight.  So I lean the Padres RHH in that game.   CATCHER William and Willson Contreras…. The hit-men.  Like both brothers today, prefer Willie more…  You think he goes by Willie or does Willson go by Willie?  I need an answer here. Francisco Alvarez   FIRST BASE Paul Goldschmidt Ryan Mountcastle Pete Alonso   SECOND BASE Zack Gelof Ha-Seong Kim Andres Gimenez   THIRD BASE Very good position, Gunnar can be moved to SS here as well. Gunnar Henderson Brian Anderson Manny Machado   SHORTSTOP Willy Adames Francisco Lindor Amed Rosario … Him and Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas present enough to have me avoiding Snell today.  I think this is a low strikeout spot for Blake Snell.   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Christian Yelich Teoscar Hernandez Brandon Nimmo Anthony Santander   William Contreras – C – Milwaukee Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets Anthony Santander – OF – […]

The Dongers Club – August 5th – Early/Afternoon

August 5, 2023

Six game Early/Afternoon splits between FanDuel and DraftKings today.  DK obviously has the larger six game slate, but we’ll be covering it all so those who love to journey their Saturdays with FanDuel MLB, I have you covered.   WEATHER Rain lingering throughout the day in Wrigley but the game should play through without any delays.   Holy crap, what a dumpster fire yet again with ALL pitchers last night.  And yes, I had the wrong middle initial on Allen last night, total hack job here.  A couple changes here today as Justin Verlander makes his 2023 Astros debut in Yankee Stadium, Aaron Civale makes his Rays debut in Detroit and the Marlins are moving bullpen pitcher George Soriano into the rotation for a tilt in Texas with the Rangers. Meanwhile we also have Nestor Cortes back on the bump for the first time since May, Tarik Skubal making another start for Detroit where he might throw 75-80 pitches and Jose Berrios vs Nick Pivetta!   #1 – JUSTIN VERLANDER Saturday afternoons and Yankee home game unders.  JV getting dealt out of New York only to return immediately to NY is kinda funny to me.  His price remains affordable and there’s no reason to not play him today. #2 – JON GRAY   The offenses that I would put the most faith into warranting a 4+ man build today include: Reds Rangers Red Sox     CATCHER Mitch Garver Yan Gomes   FIRST BASE Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Nathaniel Lowe   SECOND BASE Marcus Semien Jeter Downs   THIRD BASE Elly De La Cruz … Because I like Seager so much here, I would put Elly at 3B with Seager at SS and then find cheaper bats elsewhere. Alex Bregman Josh Jung   SHORTSTOP Corey Seager   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore George Springer Kerry Carpenter Ian Happ Adolis Garcia   Corey Seager – SS – Rangers – Chairman of The Dongers Club Ian Happ – OF – Cubs George Springer – OF – Blue Jays TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over… Nationals/Reds   Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game. Astros/Yankees   ML Targets Red Sox

The Dongers Club – August 4th

August 4, 2023

Last time I checked there were still 30 teams in Major League Baseball.  Yet, here we are, on a Friday in August and there are just 28 of them who are in play for some stupid reason.  No, it’s not the Field of Dreams game, because that is coming next week, instead we have the Athletics and Giants off today.  I know you are all very, very upset about this.   WEATHER Couple spots to monitor in the Northeast tonight, both games should wind up getting played though as it’s just storms rolling through Astros at Yankees — 50-60% chance of rain throughout the game.  I do like a SP here, so we have to monitor it… Blue Jays at Red Sox — Not using SP here, it’ll be humid, ball should jump and wind carries out to LCF too.  Slight chance of rain early and then a pop up thunderstorm.   REID DETMERS The Mariners have the second highest K% on the slate, the 6th highest over the last week and rank 30th in all of MLB against what Detmers should throw 50% of the time tonight.  He’s setup to dominate as he usually pitches well at home too. LOGAN C. ALLEN We’re staying in the mid range but not going down too low on pitching tonight.  Andrew Heaney just carved up these damn morons from the south side, so Logan C. Allen at home is no concern for me ither.  The White Sox with a heavy RHH lineup project for a fairly low .134 ISO against LcA, so the risk here should be low. HUNTER BROWN Normally this is probably where I would get cold feet and run away from a SP against a bad offense that burned me the night before.  F*** it though.  New York blows, give me Hunter Brown here, he’s not limited and he is showing no signs of not being able to push through for 6 innings and 7+ strikeouts today if he can avoid a rain delay.   OTHER NOTES … James Paxton in Canada vs the Jays?  Yes.   James Paxton at home vs the Jays?  Heck no. Aaron Nola is likely to get 20 on the white hot Royals today.  Kinda think he is fine for use on FanDuel, but how can I fade the Royals right now???  HOW? Bobby Miller will give up a homer to Fernando Tatis, but still […]

The Dongers Club – August 3rd (Main)

August 3, 2023

WEATHER Very low chance of rain in New York and St. Louis.  No reason to expect any issues.   SHOHEI OHTANI The time of fading Ohtani post all-star break ended clearly when he went full God mode against the Tigers in a double header start a week ago.  Now he welcomes in Seattle, who is striking out slightly less and usually hits well in Anaheim, but fear not, Ohtani will reign supreme tonight. If you need stats to back it up, please, go enter a NFL Pre-Season Showdown contest instead of playing MLB tonight. CRISTIAN JAVIER Hey nice, Yankees found a way to hit Shane McClanahan, who now has an injury just like every other Rays pitcher.  Cool, lets bring in the guy who has a prior no hitter off the teams most recent no hitter upon acquiring a guy with 3 no hitters back onto the roster tonight.  The heart of the Yankees order should not be able to hit Javier. MITCH KELLER  Keller is the one SP to consider as a pivot off either Javier or Ohtani.  After a rough middle of the season I believe we’ll see the young kid get back to his early dominant form late and Milwaukee is 18th on the season against Cutter and 27th against Sinker, his two primary options.   OTHER NOTES … There is no benefit for me to justify recommending any of the cheaper spots today.  Guys like Clarke Schmidt, Matthew Liberatore, Jameson Taillon, Luke Weaver, just none of that is worth going with today.  Sorry to be boring with the two SP mentioned above, but it is what it is.   DraftKings Pairs Ranked Ohtani & Javier Javier & Keller   FanDuel Options Ranked Ohtani Javier   CUBS Happ, Bellinger, Swanson Not sure what is in the coffee in Chicago these days, but the pricing on Ian Happ against a near 50% fast ball pitcher in Luke Weaver should set him up for great success again today.  Cincinnati’s issue is NOT their offense, it’s the bullpen, so going both sides in this game once again should not hurt. PIRATES Reynolds, Suwinski, McCutchen, Davis, Hayes That’s a lot of Pirates folks.  I do not expect them to put up 11 runs, but they should get 4+ off Adrian Houser.  I simply laid out the ones who have the most interest for me today.  Hayes is kind of a one off […]

The Dongers Club – August 3rd (Early)

August 3, 2023

I didn’t have much of a feel for the four early games yesterday (Wednesday), so coming back today with a bonus 2-article Thursday — which feels weird to say considering I hate Thursday MLB DFS, but here we are. Oh look.  Brady Singer is pitching for the team with the longest win streak in Major League Baseball.   WEATHER Still very clear   MAX SCHERZER — DK: $10,400 | FD: $10,500 … This stinks folks.  We should have gotten lucky with Max on a big 15 game slate against a better team where he might be pretty low owned.  But on a four gamer vs the White Sox he should be near highest owned on the slate and I think he is going to SMASH in Texas…. Why?  Two words…  Mike Maddux.  That’s right.  Immediately Max had a bullpen with his new pitching coach, the famous Mike Maddux, and immediately Maddux had him make one quick change on something he was struggling with and it immediately paid off in the bullpen.  Now, let’s see if it translates out onto the field but doing this vs the RH heavy White Sox should not hurt. BRADY SINGER — DK: $7400 | FD: $8000 … We’re Back!  Back on the Singer bandwagon and I don’t wanna hear anything about it, because September has come early for the Royals win streak this year as they’ve reeled off 5 in a row and the Mets, well, they’re done.  Send those vets home and call up some more prospects folks.   OTHER Jack Flaherty makes his AL/Orioles debut in Toronto Kevin Gausman is a no go compared to Max for me.  Not even close for me, but yes, Gausman will have 8+ strikeouts.  Max will too.   ROYALS Witt, Melendez, Perez, Massey The Royals young kids are acting like it’s September Baseball right now and playing well over the last week.  Led by Witt, they’ve gotten some clutch hitting and should be able to get at least one string of hits together in an inning early against Carrasco. DIAMONDBACKS / GIANTS Marte, Gurriel, Walker, Kelly Eventually the Diamondbacks are going to explode here.  The price on Gurriel is worth jumping all over and Walker fills into a good role today behind him (hopefully).   CATCHER Salvador Perez Carson Kelly   FIRST BASE Christian Walker Ryan Mountcastle   SECOND BASE Michael Massey Marcus Semien   THIRD BASE Matt […]

The Dongers Club – August 2nd

August 2, 2023

WEATHER Very clear   SHANE MCCLANAHAN — DK: $9300 | FD: $9700 … It’s half all in on Shane and half all in on attacking the Yankees.  Not much else to break down here.   Sugar Shane is the right side as Cole is going to likely do something stupid and get tossed or hammered tonight.  Its gonna get ugly in the Bronx. TONY GONSOLIN — DK: $7500 | FD: $8400 … It’s not sexy at all but Gonzo is finally up to speed after getting a late start to the season — he’s good to go for 90+ pitches for sure and Oakland should not be a heavy walk team tonight either.  I think we can get 6 IP out of him at a low price too. DYLAN CEASE — DK: $8,400 | FD: $9,300 After not getting traded late at the deadline we could see Cease come out and just go through the motions against a good Rangers lineup and in that scenario he is dead on arrival.  But likely what happens is he continues to pitch well as he has most of the second half because — wait for it — he’s been facing mostly NON divisional teams.  That’s the Cease model, you gotta be patient with him and the RHH still do not hit him very well so with Seager remaining out thats the strength on Texas and I believe Cease should be expected to hit 6+ strikeouts tonight     ORIOLES Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Jordan Westburg If I was not clear enough last night that Ryan Mountcastle would be a main-stay here again today then that is on me for not SHOVING IT DOWN YOUR THROAT like the home run he hits off Kikuchi tonight. REDS Matt McClain McClain, Nick Senzel, Spencer Steer They won’t go off the same way the Cubs did on them last night, but Cincy will be more competitive today offensively against Smyly.  Lefties should be able to tame Cincinnati more than RHP will but I do not want Drew here.  The breaking pitch should struggle to get whiffs.   Other Lineups to consider tonight Dodgers White Sox Cubs   CATCHER Adley Rutschman Will Smith Seby Zavala   FIRST BASE Ryan Mountcastle Vladimir Guerrero Jr   SECOND BASE Matt McClain … Since 2B is actually deep today McClain can be pivoted over to SS.  He is a must own from any Cincy […]

The Dongers Club – August 1st

August 1, 2023

This is how every Tuesday night should be.  We get a near full slate and the avoidance of the Marlins and the Phillies in a game that probably has some HR juice in it – but who cares, we have plenty of other good options tonight. The MLB trade deadline is tonight as well, so we’ll expect some late scratches and news but I do not anticipate any big name players being dealt.   WEATHER Very clear   TOP OPTIONS BRAYAN BELLO — DK: $8,900 | FD $8,500 We may just go auto-pilot on the RHP vs the Mariners the rest of the way out, doesn’t matter who takes the mound at this point. ZAC GALLEN — DK: $10,500 | FD $10,600 Second have Gallen has cooled off a good amount and he has not been as dominant away from Chase Field, but neither concerns me as the Giants are slugging just .319 over their last 10 games and should not hit well here at home in a night game.  This is an okay spot to do a SP game stack but Gallen is by far the better option between him and Cobb in my mind. LANCE LYNN — DK: $7,900 | FD $9,400 Lynn will make his Dodger debut and look here, he gets Oakland.  I’ll have my eyes big time on this game because I am very much back on the Dodgers to Win the World Series band wagon and Lynn performing well is pivotal for that happening. OTHER NOTES Anyone promoting Spencer Strider tonight is going to take an L in my mind.  The Braves have zero reason to push him down the stretch the final two months of the season and the Angels have too much power for him not to give up 1 or 2 hard hit doubles/homers today.  No reason to shop here on a 14 game slate. The model loves Johan Oviedo today, and he’ll likely be a little popular at his price.  Too inconsistent for me to take that risk though.   ORIOLES Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander The Blue Jays decided to bring back Hyun-Jin Ryu right before Yusei Kikuchi pitches tomorrow AGAINST BALTIMORE.  Holy fuck the Orioles could not be running any better right now.  What in the world.  Zero hesitation here.  Play Mountcastle, who … uh, is $3600?  What?  The Birds have moved Mountcastle into the #2 spot, kinda curious […]