Only 10 games on the Tuesday night slate as we continue to have a heavy 6pm Window of games which the DFS sites refuse to allow us to include those gems. On that Turbo slate I like Cardinals, Phillies and Reds.  The over in STL/CIN, the under in TEX/PIT and I just wouldn’t touch TOR/TB if you can avoid it. White Sox/Guardians is thankfully not on any Classic slate. WEATHER All clear, ball should travel well in Kauffman Stadium again.  No, this doesn’t mean Brady Singer is pitching you ***-holes…  Let’s just not discuss it anymore, okay.   TOP ARM Yu Darvish (DK: 10.5k, FD: 10.4k) Can good trash beat good trash?  Because that’s where I see Darvish thriving tonight simply by throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Nationals with his 38.2% CSW rate on Sinkers, 36.5% on Sliders and the occasional splitter which opponents are only hitting .122 off this season. Statistically we have a  Nationals team which manages to not strike out a ton, but the Darvish type pitcher should just go right through them without getting his PC up too high and that’s key with Darvish at 10k+ on a night with Cole/Strider out there too.   SP2 OPTIONS Brayan Bello (DK: $6300) BB has looked better in 2023 and lets clear something up on his prior GS vs Anaheim.  It was on Patriots day, so an 11 am start and he started the 1st inning with strikeout, single, HBP, HR, BB, single, Sac Fly, single, strikeout.  The 2nd inning started with a Neto single and then Ohtani single and in the third he gave up two more singles before striking out 2 and being pulled. The issue at no point in 2023 for Bello has been hard contact, the issue was that first start in an 11 game versus an Angels lineup that was better then than they are now.  Trout remains cold (he missed that game) and Renfroe has cooled off as well from a power perspective.  Bello’s confidence should be much higher here and Anaheim has struck out 24% over the last week, he’s gonna get the K’s and we just need him to not go wild with walks. Also Dont Mind:  Alex Cobb, Kyle Bradish   OTHER PITCHING NOTES The Dodgers are letting Bobby Miller make his MLB debut in Atlanta and this is one Dodger prospect who I do think deserves […]

Monday kicks off a solid week with seven games on the MAIN slate, and a BUNCH of great games on the Turbo slate.  We’re gonna miss out on Paul DeJong going off in Cincinnati along with the rest of the Cardinals there and we also miss out on Rays-Jays sadly. WEATHER LAD at ATL – Scattered Thunderstorms, should be able to play the game just fine though. Fantastic hitting weather in Target Field   TOP ARM Brady Singer (DK: $7000, FD: $7400) This is me calling my shot ladies and gentlemen.  I am not locking on Singer because he is in a comfortable price range or because he is facing the Tigers. Okay, a lot of it has to do with the Tigers and him having made comments about them not taking him in the draft and thus dominating them.  But also, they’re just not that good and Singer was showing signs before his last start of turning the corner, lowing that massive hard contact rate he had early in the season before the start in PETCO.  Beyond that, the numbers won’t tell you to play Singer, but my gut does.   SP2 OPTIONS Luis Castillo (DK: $9200, FD: $10.5k) The Mariners are back at home, which means Castillo should pitch well again.  Oh, and much like Singer, they’re facing a shit offense in Oakland, so whatever steps on the mound to pitch tonight is gonna be good.  Castillo’s last 3 have been versus Boston, Texas and Houston — much more potent lineups than Oaklands where he has to navigate Ryan Noda and Ramon Laureano.   OTHER PITCHING NOTES The only other arms worthy of giving a shot tonight are Cristian Javier and Corbin Burnes against each other.  Many will consider Burnes a fade since Houston still is a relatively low K team but you can never go wrong with a low owned Burnes for only $9,000.     Players listed with each team are the primary options to build around. TOP STACK Marlins (Soler, Cooper, De La Cruz) in Coors! … Last year the Fish and Rockies played basically the highest scoring series of the season and I got no reason to not expect more ridiculous donkey offense tonight. Beyond that though, Chase Anderson on the bump for the Rockies, this should end just fine friends.  And by fine, I mean 7 ER incoming.   SECONDARY STACKS Twins (Buxton, […]

Another Sunday edition of the Dongers Club, as we set lineups while the Brunch game between the Yankees and Reds is going on in Cincinnati, which I am sure will find a way to make it into extra innings as all those Sunday Brunch games seem to do. DraftKings has kept the Mets and Guardians on the slate.  They are playing a double header with the second game being the Sunday Night Baseball night capper.  New York suddenly turned on their “lets win the pennant before Memorial Day” fever sparked by the young kids delivering clutch hits and Pete Alonso humping everything in sight.  Now they get a double header with Max and Verlander both pitching?  Yeah, if you wanna bet the Guardians go right ahead my friends, but the Mets are winning both these games today. All in all this is a big Sunday slate, with 11 games on the docket and some quality depth among the names taking the mound today.  Lots to break down, so lets get this show on the road. WEATHER No concerns, great day.   TOP ARM Framber Valdez (DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k) … The only knock I have on Valdez is that he generally is about ~10% worse at home and thus might not get a 40 today.  Uhh, okay, so what’s the problem exactly?  Valdez gets an Oakland team who is really bad against southpaw sinkers, ranking 28th overall this season and is probably the chalky option who I just can’t imagine won’t come through with a good enough score.  The downside is maybe he walks too many guys, the upside is that he flirts with a no-hitter.   SP2 OPTIONS Josiah Gray (DK: $8000, FD: $9200)  … Getting someone with high whiff potential against Detroit sounds too good to be true, and honestly maybe it is but lets dive on in shall we.  Gray is following very similarly to the path of Triston McKenzie for the Guardians, a young prospect who came up with some nasty stuff very early but had his fair share of struggles before settling in when the expectations were low.  I believe we could see a strong second have surge from Josiah which is based on the fact that he’s getting the ball for 90-100 pitches every time out and limiting damage with favorable CSW% rates and avoiding a blow up inning.  Detroit’s got lots of ways for […]

Four game late slate write-up for Saturday Night Mariners at Braves Dodgers at Cardinals Twins at Angels Red Sox at Padres WEATHER All clear   Actually some nice pitchers going tonight.  Sale, Sandogoat, Gilbert, Musgrove … Jesse Chavez???  Oh man, someone is gonna die. TOP ARM Patrick Sandoval (DK: $7000, FD: $8500) … The Sandogoat gets the team he has mowed down before and at home where the lefty advantage helps him out somewhat.  Buxton HR off him is certainly a concern but I see another demolition of strikeouts like Reid Detmers had last night.   SP2 OPTIONS It’s Musgrove vs Sale for SP2.  I believe Boston is the hotter team, actually I know they are, but Musgrove will pitch solid enough, so he gets the nod for me over the risk that Sale brings.  They’ll both strikeout 5 to 6 batters, but ride with the homeboy Joe.   FAVORITE STACK Mariners  France Kelenic Hernandez   SECONDARY STACKS Cardinals Gorman Goldschmidt B.Donovan   TIER THREE TEAMS Braves Riley Albies   Short slate, so just one recommendation at each spot CATCHER Austin Nola   FIRST BASE Ty France … Great in RvR split   SECOND BASE Nolan Gorman   THIRD BASE Austin Riley   SHORTSTOP Xander Bogaerts   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore MIke Trout Jarred Kelenic Hunter Renfroe   Mike Trout – OF – Angels – Chairman of The Saturday Night Dongers Club TODAY’S TOP BET(s) K Prop Parlay: Sandoval over 5.5 Musgrove over 4.5   Over 0.5 Hits Parlay: Nolan Gorman over 0.5 Austin Riley over 0.5 Mike Trout over 0.5   Best Dog ML: Mariners +116   Best Total: None

Most of the games today are in the 4PM window which features a Nine (Minus the PPD games) game slate of games for FD and DK.  There is a 7PM Saturday night slate and yes I will most likely do a quick write-up on that one. WEATHER Guardians at Mets – Already PPD Tigers at Nationals – LOL.  Nats and rain delays.  Have fun. Cubs at Phillies – Rain arriving late, I think they’ll cruise along just fine.   TOP ARM Aaron Nola (DK: $9200, FD: $9200) … Looked at the slate late last night to see who was pitching and immediately did this type of reaction while sitting in my chair watching the Knights/Stars NHL game. Except I don’t smoke… But anyways, the point here is I was all on Nola for this game.  The Cubs are gonna look like a hot team coming in here and that’s all fine and good but Nola is going to get his K rates WAY up in this game.  To both LH and RH he is below 20% on the season, but all the Cubs excepet for Hoener are 25%+ vs his pitch type mix and overall they are hitting LH better than RHP of late.  Gimme the first real Nola gem game of 2023 & he is coming off an extra days rest too.   SP2 OPTIONS Mitch Keller (DK: $9300, FD:  Play Nola) … You all keep waiting for the Keller shoe to fall off game, and yeah he could have that one rough inning like Gallen did in this series last night but really nothing we have seen from Keller should suggest he is not having the ‘Dylan Cease’ breakout this season.  Lefties are whiffing 32% and only hitting .200 against him, the walks are way down and the confidence is way up.   Guys I considered Jon Gray … He is the best pivot, the Rockies will strikeout plenty to keep him in the mix Braxon Garrett / Logan Webb … If you want these two I would pair them together and play for a low scoring 2-1 type game.  Garrett can’t go deep enough to win the slate and Webb wont beat Nola IMO. Brandon Pfaadt … We’re just getting a good discount here, but 3 bats (McCutchen, Reynolds and Suwinski) are likely give him trouble, so even at his cheap price I don’t know that it’s […]

Happy Friday!  A near full Main slate, with 3 games in the early Turbo window tonight. Tonight is the night.  It’s going to come out and hit us like a ton of bricks.  One year ago (around this time) we had a Friday night slate where it felt like there were about 6 HR per game.  Today could be that day for the 2023 season because we have a combination of three important factors.  #1.  Some bad SP.  #2.  Some Bullpens falling apart and #3.  Some increased Humidity tonight around the league.  We also have mostly non divisional series this weekend as well, which is always a nice boost too. It’s about to get very warm and the balls are gonna be flying my friends. WEATHER It’s not hot.  But the humidity numbers do catch my eye everywhere.  No PPD risk today.   There really isn’t one guy who gets the top arm slot above everyone else.  On DraftKings there is just one pitcher who is above 10k (Joe Ryan) and a total of 12 pitchers between 7k and 9k with most of the ones who have the best K% upside also having some bad SLG risk (Kikuchi, Miller, Detmers)   TOP ARM Anthony DeSclafani (DK: $8700, FD: $9100) … The Italian was not good to us the last time we went with him as he had a rough first inning before settling in.  That’s not a concern vs the Marlins who are near the bottom in 1st run production and do not have Jazz Chisholm either.  We should also be able to get a 90+ pitch performance here after only throwing 77 in his last start.  Gimme the Italian on a late Friday night to put away the dead bodies after dark.   SP2 OPTIONS Reid Detmers (DK: $7900, FD: $8100) … A few mid range options here are lefties who have risk, comparable options such as Ranger Suarez and Martin Perez are not able to offset that risk with strikeouts like Detmers should manage to do.  Get through without screwing up against Farmer/Polanco part of the order and it’s smooth sailing after that 6-9 junk. Matthew Boyd (DK: $7100) … This is who Matt Boyd is, he follows up disaster start (55 pitches, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 5 ER) with a game where he has 6 strikeouts through 3 innings before racking that pitch count up […]

I guess I did not pick up on the new schedule format that MLB secretly did this year where by we have very short Thursday slates. Considering I have said in the past that I hate Thursday MLB DFS, this probably is a good thing for me. Yet, here I am, going through the 4 game early slate window on this Thursday afternoon.  I guess it will serve as a nice distraction from the PGA Championship where guys will be doing their best to screw up everyone’s lineups. WEATHER All four games play fine.   This is awesome.  We have two Tyler’s facing each other and then a Tylor facing a Taj, as well as a Trevor a Logan and a Dylan.  It’s suburban White Boy Thursday for sure. You should ride or die today with your decision to trust Dylan Cease and I am on the bandwagon that feels Cease just relies on trying to set guys up deep in the count for a whiff and divisional opponents (like Cleveland) are catching on to this and not biting as much.  Throw on top of that Cleveland not being the highest of K% team still and I’ll take the risk fading him. This leaves us with some bleak options though Eury Perez … There is definitely some talent here, worth taking vs the Nationals and my favorite option of this bunch. Taj Bradley … Great K% upside, something the guys below (Williams/Wells)  do not have. Trevor Williams … Opponent is the worst of the bunch Tyler Wells … Should not kill us, but should also not be someone you Favorite SP Pairing:   E.Perez / T.Bradley   FAVORITE STACK ORIOLES … Baltimore is a top 10 offense in general vs LHP, they really tee up on non breaking pitches from lefties as well.  Mountcastle/Adley/Santander and if Hays is in the lineup (he should be) we go there too   SECONDARY STACKS RAYS GUARDIANS / WHITE SOX   CATCHER James McCann Adley Rutschman   FIRST BASE Ryan Mountcastle Harold Ramirez Josh Bell   SECOND BASE Brandon Lowe Brandon Drury Luis Arraez   THIRD BASE Jake Burger   SHORTSTOP Amed Rosario Francisco Lindor   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Anthony Santander Luis Robert Jr Jorge Soler Randy Arozarena   Whopper Whopper Whopper Whopper … Single Double Junior Whopper … I want a Jake Burger home run today — The Chair! TODAY’S TOP BET(s) K Prop […]

Seven game main slate today WEATHER Cold and WINDY in Boston, cross wind though.   TOP ARM Spencer Strider (DK: $12k | FD: $11.5k) … Strider vs Eovaldi, quite the gas throwing matchup between these two RHP.  Yes, I would encourage you to lock him in at $12,000.  This is a 10k spot and we’ll find the cheap hitters where we need them   SP2 OPTIONS Corbin Burnes (DK: $8600 | FD: $10k) … I know Arenado is on an un-real heater right now and I know the price is going to make Burnes chalk, but I would be way more happy rolling him at $8600 and taking just a 17-18 point performance than the negative scores guys like Clevinger, Senga and Libwhoretard should give you today. Chris Bassitt (DK: $7400 | FD: $9500) … This is the best and ONLY pivot off Burnes.   AVOIDS Gerrit Cole … No Cole tonight for me.  Big deal could be if Vladdy is out that could make him alright, otherwise given the recent ‘issues’ the Yankees have had in Toronto and the way the Jays are pissed off I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if Cole is out early tonight due to one of four factors (a- Jays catch him cheating like Domingo, b- Brawl, c- A and B combined, d- He banged some Toronto blonde last night and sucks today).  Okay, in all seriousness, it’s that he wont beat Strider and he’s not able to fit with Strider….  (Note:  Sounds like Vlad will be out) Kodai Senga … Let’s see how he does facing a real American team for a change and not the garbage he’s gotten to match up vs.     FAVORITE STACK Chicago Cubs (Morel, Swanson, Suzuki, Wisdom) … Third start for JP France, color me not that impressed thus far.  Lots of pull power upside for the Cubs to knock them into the Crawford boxes today.  Look for 2+HR for sure.   SECONDARY STACKS Tampa Bay Rays (Franco, B.Lowe, J.Lowe, Parades) … Everything about the Mets sucks right now.  Kodai gets beat up today and the bullpen continues to be rough. Milwaukee Brewers (Adames, Contreras) … Funny that the Cardinals are gonna try another SP prospect on us for the second time.  The Lib wasn’t great in his previous turns and I don’t trust him to be great here either.   CATCHER William Contreras Mike Zunino   […]

Five game early (more like Afternoon) slate for all these west coast series having their get-away games today. Reds at Rockies Twins at Dodgers D’Backs at Athletics Phillies at Giants Royals at Padres   WEATHER Four of the games are in California and all four of those are comfortable 60-70 degree conditions with minimal wind impacts.  The Coors Field game is 77 degrees with wind blowing in from center slightly. Everything is fine.  Everything will make you want to go play Golf.   I am not going to play 80% owned Yu Darvish in a day game vs my Royals, who had their sleep walk game on Monday night and are going to continue another streak now of good hitting. GRAHAM ASHCRAFT Just three strikeouts in each of his last three starts, that corrects itself today with a 6 inning 5 K performance.  Who else wants to jump on some Coors Under today?  Five game slate, go contrarian for the top or don’t even play folks. DUSTIN MAY The good with Dustin May is he finally learned how to pitch, but the bad with Dustin May is that he’s justified my initial assessment that he is not an Ace long term (it’s called early victory lapping folks).  Right now though he’s gotta warrant our consideration.  This slate is dog poop for pitching. AUSTIN GOMBER I really want to use Austin Gomber as I think the signs are there to ignite a little run here, but them not pushing him to 100 pitches when pitching well is annoying.  The price on him however kinda justifies it for $6,100 and Cincy has some decent strikeout projections to favor a good outing again today.   Royals Witt, Pasquantino, Perez, Melendez Yes, I believe the Royals will jump on Darvish today.  He’ll drop that splitter where Pasquantino can smash it out of the park and Salvy/Melendez/Olivares come through today as well. Phillies Schwarber, Castellanos, Turner, Bohm Kyle Schwarber is heating up folks, we’re approaching Schwarber season when he absolutely goes on a Nolan Arenado like tear.  Just another week or two and you’ll see it, for now though what I’m seeing in Philly are guys around Harper starting to get right.  Bohm, Castellanos and before the Schwarber massive heater will be Trea Turner doing Trea Turner things.   CATCHER Salvador Perez JT Realmuto   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Alec Bohm   SECOND BASE Michael Massey […]

Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings