Broken down by pricing tiers, Mark Farris outlines his favorite PGA DFS plays on DraftKings

WEATHER All clear.  Looking around the US weather — yes, I’m old — its going to get very very warm, very very quickly this upcoming weekend.  Key thing to note is which teams bullpens start to get tired now because someone’s about to have a 3 HR day in the next 10 days off a bad pen and then a shitty positional player.   This is a mid range pitching slate tonight.  Across the 10 games I wouldn’t put any one player as a ‘Strong’ this guy should be 40% owned ace.  Yamamoto and McClanahan might be two of the more talented plays but neither is in the right spot today to give that label for. Jack Flaherty (DK: $7300) We could see ownership on the other SP here as for some reason Freddy Peralta is always the darling — probably the optimizer logic on his metrics & price pushing him to the top.  But with Peralta you always have one of his first three innings where he has to face 6 batters and gives up 2 runs.  Flaherty’s chances of going 1st to 6th inning with limited damage is better, and I prefer the lack of risk of facing the Mets than the Tigers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (DK: $9500) Had to throw him up here.  He’s just too good to not think he won’t be in the top 3 tonight. Eury Perez (DK: $8100) Perez has not been as clean away from Miami, but he does get the benefit of an improved catcher behind the plate to limit base runners if he gives up some hits.  The Twins are middle of the pack in strikeout % this season, so its mostly a neutral spot but I expect them to get worse as the season moves along.   OTHER THOUGHTS I think both Colin Rea and Grant Holmes should be looked at as options.  They’re each viable to give up 2 HR but more likely to get you a 14 getting into the 6th inning in a game that’s got lots of good metrics and likely finishes 4-2 in favor of the team people my age grew up watching pre-MLB streaming packages…. (in other words… i have no fucking clue who wins this game but its going under).  My slight lean here is actually on Rea. MacKenzie Gore vs Zac Gallen:  Gallen’s just not been consistent enough & something is off […]

I am definitely feeling like I will wind up contrarian today.  It’s just a short six game Monday slate with four divisional matchups and two interleague series.  A fun one, but one not to get too caught up in chalk/leverage decisions.  Play your gut. WEATHER All clear.  Three dome games and chilly weather in two spots with some wind boost out to RF in Dodger Stadium.   RYAN WEATHERS (DK: $8300) I can’t justify writing anything negative on him today.  Not that hot in Baltimore, neither are they.  He should tame Adley/Gunnar who helps him get through the 1st and 4th/5th innings easily.  Clean spot today. NATHAN EOVALDI (DK: $8500) I have Soroka right behind Eovaldi today.  The only fear here is that his price is inflated because he always pitches well vs the Yankees and just had two good starts versus them.  Things aren’t great for either of these teams right now though, and so when given the choice you take the flame thrower upside over Soroka any day. GEORGE KIRBY (DK: $8700) This is either lock in Ryan Weather chalk as the top SP vs Baltimore or try to sneak by with Kirby in Houston.  Seattle pitchers still take a hit on the road & he should here as well, so he’s hard to justify above #3.     On just a short slate I expect the ownership without question to slide on the Yankees, some Dodgers and Mariners.   TAMPA BAY RAYS Ambush spot on Gausman, which is how I would play the entire slate tonight.  Rays really hit well here in Toronto & can wait out Gausman deep in counts.  Jonathan Aranda is a must own as he rakes in Toronto and on Jays pitching in general & all his homers are basically on pitches dropping down and in on his swing path.  Gausman’s cutter isn’t a problem for him. Chandler Simpson Jonathan Aranda Yandy Diaz (Play at 3B in the stack, I think this is your slate winner combo him and Aranda) Junior Caminero   DODGERS Trevor McDonald attacks the zone way too much for me to think he gets by cleanly once again. Mookie Betts:  Oh, hey, he’s back Kyle Tucker – About to go on an insane tear, get on board now this week.   CATCHER Austin Wells Sebastian Rivero   FIRST BASE Jonathan Aranda Rafael Devers   SECOND BASE Travis Bazanna Vaughn […]

WEATHER All clear… Tampa at Boston:  After the PPD last night they have just one game today and pretty good weather.   11 mph winds out to right, upper 60’s – should be good hitting conditions     I feel like I could write a few words about almost every pitcher today.  There is some depth, but a clear gap on the tiers among the pitchers.  It’s not a typical Sunday however because I cannot find that true ‘Sunday Sleeper’ arm who is mid range or cheap on price that I expect to be good.  Nick Martinez is one tempting option after I liked him on last nights slate before the PPD, but weather is good for hitting today & I don’t see the need to go there. So, lets just keep it short and simple.  Here’s the top two. CHRISTOPHER SANCHEZ (DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.8k) Literally every DFS article today … “Play Christopher Sanchez”.  The Phillies are one of those teams who seem to do well on Mothers Day home games, so long as the Phinatic is not beaning Phoebe in the face in pre-game ceremonies.  What a bad child he is.  Anywho, if you want justification on Sanchez beyond “vegas odds” and “its the Rockies on the road”, then let me break this down for you.  He has an elite change-up.  Here’s the Rockies whiff rate on lefty change-ups this season, 36%, 50%, 42%, 37%, 36%, 36%, 38%, 50%.  He should be ahead in the count all game long.  He should pitch 7, maybe 8, possibly 9 innings today.  He’s going to win.  He’s going to pay off.  He’s going to be 80% owned.   JACOB deGROM (DK: $9600, FD: $9700) deGrom had back to back starts against the Yankees and despite giving up 2 homers in the second one, he still managed to go into the 7th inning in that one.  We can make whatever noise we want about injuries with him and not being what he once was, but the guy still has command (just 2 walks over last 18 IP) and he still knows how to pitch pretty damn well.  Roof likely closed & I think he really handles Hoerner-Bregman-Happ with ease.  So any solo Seiya homer or Busch homer is not that big of a deal.   SOME OF THOSE OTHER THOUGHTS Andrew Abbott:  Likely your best ‘cheap’ play.  Lots of risk here though. Gavin […]

WEATHER All clear   Braxton Ashcraft (DK: $7700) Both pitchers here probably have some ownership on them.  Roupp probably higher than Ashcraft.  I just believe in Ashcraft more – he had the one hiccup vs the Cardinals but otherwise has been very good and more K% upside. Edward Cabrera (DK: $7400) You know who has not been good?  Texas.  Unless going to Snell off IL, or Schlittler vs Milwaukee, might as well pick on Texas   OTHER NOTES Blake Snell is back and vs Spencer Strider — battle of the injury bugs   Diamondbacks Corbin Carroll should go off tonight, first inning triple. Corbin Carroll Geraldo Perdomo Adrian Del Castillo   Padres / Cardinals Jackson Merrill JJ Wetherholt   KC Royals Vinnie Pasquantino Maikel Garcia Carter Jensen   Mariners Randy Arozarena Mitch Garver   CATCHER Freddy Fermin Mitch Garver Carter Jensen   FIRST BASE Vinnie Pasquantino Shohei Ohtani Michael Busch   SECOND BASE JJ Wetherholt Ketel Marte Chase Meidroth   THIRD BASE Manny Machado Maikel Garcia Nolan Arenado   SHORTSTOP Xander Bogaerts Bobby Witt Jr. Colson Montgomery   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Randy Arozarena Jackson Merrill Kyle Tucker Sam Antonacci   Randy Arozarena – OF – Seattle Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B – Royals Corbin Carroll – OF – Diamondbacks Shohei Ohtani – 1B/OF – Dodgers  

Five game early slate today, kicking off with the Toronto 3:07 home game and then four games in that magical 4pm Saturday overs window.   WEATHER All clear   CHASE BURNS (DK: $9300) Just as a reminder, no pitcher is ever safe when it comes to these Saturday afternoon games, so you want to find the one who should get enough whiffs to off-set any HR damage that comes with the mid afternoon time slots that the Baseballs love to be jumpy in.  Burns is clearly that guy & while the first inning is the toughest part to get through, the rest of the Houston lineup is smooth sailing for him to hit 6 to 8 strikeouts. NICK MARTINEZ (DK: $7900) Nick Martinez is not this good, but be damned if I want to use Payton Tolle vs Caminero/Diaz.  Unlike Burns, we’re not getting the whiffs but rather the crafty veteran who should get enough ground balls to push through 5 IP with a chance at the win.   ONLY OTHER OPTION Trey Yesavage will be better today, but you still have to throw more than two pitches to be a real starting pitcher in this league.  The hype on him is not justified yet.     ATHLETICS vs ORIOLES Anything less than 13 runs and 5 homers and we riot.  All in on this game. Brent Rooker Tyler Soderstrom Lawrence Butler Gunnar Henderson Samuel Basallo Leody Tavares   BLUE JAYS The Jays at home on Saturday’s is back, take that Jack.  There’s some okay 1B options today, but none are Vladimir Guerrero who should destroy anything he sees’. Vlad Guerrero Jr George Springer Daulton Varsho     CATCHER Samuel Basallo Tyler Stephenson   FIRST BASE Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Nick Kurtz Yandy Diaz   SECOND BASE Xavier Edwards Jeff McNeil   THIRD BASE Junior Caminero Kazuma Okamoto   SHORTSTOP Gunnar Henderson Elly De La Cruz Otto Lopez   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Brent Rooker George Springer Mike Trout Lawrence Butler   Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics – Chairman of The Dongers Club Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays Mike Trout – OF – Angels Gunnar Henderson – SS – Orioles Samuel Basallo – C – Orioles Lawrence Butler – OF – Athletics Junior Caminero – 3B – Rays BETS Blue Jays ML Athletics/Orioles OVER 9 Marlins ML Reds ML Rays ML

Now this is a great configuration of series this weekend.  Lots of interesting spots going across the three days and it all caps off with the Tigers/Royals on Sunday Night Baseball which pleases me very much.   I just hope Eric Hosmer takes shots at that fucktard AJ Pierzynski on the broadcast, but that’s another topic for Sunday night. Today we feature at 13 game main draftkings slate after there are two 6PM window games ruling out the Astros/Reds and Rockies/Phillies from our DFS analysis for at least tonight.   WEATHER Mostly clear with some rain changes in Cleveland for the Twins/Guardians, but I think they get through it just fine. We have an OPEN roof in Arizona.   ROBBIE RAY (DK: $8800, FD: $9000) Gimme, gimme, gimme the man after midnigiht.  It’s Robbie Ray after dark, when he is dazzling you with his eloquent left handed delivery through 4 scoreless, no hit innings and racking up the strikeouts — giving you the confidence as your eyes start to get heavy that you will cash easily tonight.  And then the clock strikes 12.  The Gremlins grow hungry, the walks start to pile up and you find yourself snapping out of the recurring dream that your pet turtle is leaving you for family of donkeys and your eyes catch that the bases are loaded in the top of the 5th with no outs and Ray is suddenly at 150 pitches. You begin to panic.  No, not about your gay pet turtle, he is still just by your side.  You panic about Ray, oh shit, he’s going to implode.  How could he walk Triolo, Ozuna and who the hell is Billy Cook?  Ah, christ, Jake Magnum PI is up to bat now.  But fear not.  Ray strikes him out.  Then he gets the next guy and then the third.  It’s a 75 pitch inning, but the Robbie Ray late Friday night experience had your heart racing, forehead sweating and palms … uh… well, nevermind. It’s Robbie Ray – Friday’s After Dark KRIS BUBIC (DK: $8600, FD: $9100) No Tigers RHH is any fear to me.  It’s possible that Spencer Torkelson has a good weekend but Bubic’s not going to walk the lefties ahead of him & that’s always his biggest risk (walks). MAX FRIED (DK: $9200) Fried is cruising enough that I’m not bothered with Chourio & Vaughn being back in this lineup […]

WEATHER All clear   This is a sneaky good pitching slate with lots of depth. WILL WARREN (DK: $9300) Two dubs gets the nod at the top because he’s facing the Rangers and he is good.  Easy math. COLE RAGANS (DK: $8800) Somehow Cole Ragans is only 1-4.  Oh, right, he had one start vs Cleveland when he took a line drive back from Jose Ramirez and then imploded when the Royals didn’t pull him out.  Then he had his 3 HR game in Seattle where the Mariners hitters find a way to ruin me whenever I try to use a SP vs them and that one dominant start vs the Angels with 11 strikeouts at home.  We gotta buy into the Royals ace who has just been unlucky but the Angels dominant start is more of what he is capable of. FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $8000) Repeat from last nights PPD.  Cold in Coors, Peralta pitches well there.   THE DEPTH Other pitchers who are going to do just fine… Paul Skenes – $9800 feels … like a trap? Nate Eovaldi Jeffrey Springs   MARLINS Somehow the Marlins lost last night.  They won’t tonight.  They’ll get to Young with no issues & then the Orioles pen is a little tired on the LHP side, they should have trouble with the Marsee-Stowers combo at the top of the lineup tonight.  Could even talk me into 5 Marlins. Kyle Stowers Jakob Marsee Liam Hicks   TIGERS There’s definitely some brawl potential here.  A great breakdown was done by Eric Hosmer last night showing that Boston was basically stealing pitch grips from Framber Valdez and after he was getting torn up he decided to plunk Trevor Story.  Sonny Gray has not pitched since April 20th and I dont have much confidence the guy is going to be pitching come June 20th.  Sonny Gray has 13+ years service time, he has no patience to be messing around with this bad team this season.  If he is pitching in July or beyond, it’s probably going to be for the Cubs, Braves or some AL Central team — like Detroit.   I think he gets hit around today & the Sox pen has to do more than they should. Kevin McGonigle Kerry Carpenter Colt Keith Riley Greene   PIE-RATS Oneil Cruz Brandon Lowe Bryan Reynolds Ryan O’Hearn   Not a ton of individual plays tonight, so going […]

Despite two games being PPD yesterday we have no double header make-ups today.  But we should be in a spot where there is some baseball game that is live from 1:10 PM EST until right up to midnight tonight.  The Mets and Rockies instead of playing two today are actually forced to move their game back to 9:20 PM EST — slightly later than normal for a Coors start. This article though is covering the EARLY sets of slates.  Six games: Toronto at Tampa Milwaukee at St. Louis Dodgers at Houston San Diego at San Francisco Murakami vs Trout Atlanta at Seattle   WEATHER All clear, but the most notable one is in Anaheim where it’s warming back up to where it should be with the wind blowing out to RF   Going to change up the breakdown on pitching today into more of a tiers mode for this early slate.   TIER 1 Tyler Glasnow – I don’t see a path where he won’t finish with 8 strikeouts.  The middle/bottom of the Houston order is just awful.   TIER 2 Andre Pallante – Probably my favorite play today.  Day off yesterday for the hitters & Pallante is pitching extremely well of late. Shane McClanahan – If he can keep his PC low he is fine.  He has done that by his own doing (no walks) and also the Rays just keeping a short leash on him.  He has to get through the order the first time clean.   FADE Noah Schultz – Too many good RHH in the Angels lineup     WHITE SOX Sam Antonacci Munetaka Murakami Colson Montgomery Jarred Kelenic   ANGELS Jo Adell Zack Neto   MARINERS Cal Raleigh Julio Rodriguez   CATCHER Cal Raleigh Any value catcher you can stomach   FIRST BASE Munetaka Murakami Yandy Diaz   SECOND BASE Ben Williamson Chase Meidroth Brice Turang   THIRD BASE Junior Caminero Austin Riley Max Muncy   SHORTSTOP Colson Montgomery Masyn Wynn   OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore Sam Antonacci Luke Raley Julio Rodriguez Jo Adell   Junior Caminero – 3B – Tampa Bay Rays – Chairman of The Dongers Club Cal Raleigh – C – Mariners Jo Adell – OF – Angels Munetaka Murakami – 1B – White Sox BETS White Sox / Angels OVER 9 Mariners ML

WEATHER Brewers at Cardinals:   Bad storms could roll through here, this is slight PPD risk Mets at Rockies:  Snow.  Yes.  Snow.   Maybe the Mets are sniffing coke again. Chase Field:  Roof Open   Logan Webb (DK: $8700) San Diego had their chance last night to get on the Giants early and just couldn’t do it.  This should be a typical Logan Webb 6+ innings, couple runs, a few strikeouts and just enough to get you a good return on his $8700 price.  He’s coming off just a 92 pitch 7 inning outing, his form is good & should get through the Padres lineup 3 times. Freddy Peralta (DK: $8300) Peralta has good history in Coors, but the weather risk is obviously a real and big thing here.  If he looks clear, lock him in, don’t sweat it too much – though, there are other okay options as well. Shohei Ohtani (DK: $10,700) I was going to pass on Ohtani due to price, but as we go through the hitting I find plenty of good value options to mix in and there’s no auto pay up spot.  His ownership should be really high, so if you wanted the pivot it’s going to be deGrom vs the Yankees, but I see Ohtani’s arm being just fine even though his bat is ice cold. ALSO THINK WILL DO OK Bryce Elder & George Kirby:  Cant use a SP vs Atlanta right now though & Elder 8500 vs Peralta/Webb is a no brainer other guys. Walker Buehler:  Sneaky Walker Buehler trying to be good again every other start?  Not a bad spot for him.   REDS I hope (and think) that DFS players are going to see no wind in Wrigley Field & some will see Jameson Taillon and think — oh, he is pitching well — and move right on from this game.   I didn’t push it heavy last night and that’s on me, but KeBryan Hayes loves Wrigley Field & so too does Spencer Steer & Tyler Stephenson.  The value guys here for the Reds get this lineup turned over & I think we see the Taillon bad start rear its ugly head.  Cincy’s seen him a ton, they’re going to go off. Tyler Stephenson Elly De La Cruz JJ Bleday Tyler Stephenson   PIRATES Pittsburgh likes to shift up their lineup vs a lefty, but I hope they keep Oneil Cruz […]